Dollar rise as euro falls

The euro is testing short-term support against the greenback at $1.35/1.34. 63-Day Momentum (declining below zero) reminds we are in a primary down-trend. Failure of support would signal a decline to $1.30*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.40 – ( 1.50 – 1.40 ) = 1.30

The dollar has benefited from safe haven demand, commencing a primary advance as the euro falls. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum crossed to above zero, confirming the primary up-trend. Further retracement to test the new support level at 76.00 is likely, but respect would demonstrate strong buying support.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 76 + ( 76 – 73 ) = 79

Loonie turns, will Aussie follow?

Canada’s Loonie broke parity against the greenback, confirming a primary down-trend and offering an initial target of $0.94*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 1.00 – ( 1.06 – 1.00 ) = 0.94

The Canadian and Aussie Dollars have tracked each other closely over the last year and it seems inevitable that the Aussie will follow the Loonie below parity.

CADUSD and AUDUSD

DJ Japan selling pressure

DJ Japan Index is headed for another test of support at 49.50. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow peaking below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of support would offer a target of 45.50*.

Dow Jones Japan Index

* Target calculation: 49.50- ( 53.50 – 49.50 ) = 45.50

DJ South Korea also displays a strong primary down-trend. Breach of support at 365 would offer a target of 300*.

Dow Jones South Korea Index

* Target calculation: 365 – ( 430 – 365 ) = 300

Commodities rally

The CRB Commodities Index did not follow gold lower and is testing resistance at 335. Respect of resistance, signaled by reversal below 325, would confirm the primary down-trend — offering a target of 295*. Penetration of the declining trendline is unlikely, but would warn that the down-trend is weakening.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 315 – ( 335 – 315 ) = 295