Tag: primary down-trend

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S&P 500 and DJ Europe

The S&P 500 index is headed for medium-term support at 1160. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow warns of (medium-term) selling pressure. If support at 1160 fails, primary support at 1075/1100 is unlikely to hold — offering a target of 900*. Reversal below the rising trendline on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would indicate continuation of the primary down-trend.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1300 – 1100 ) = 900

Dow Jones Europe index is also headed for primary support, at 205. Failure is likely and would offer a target of 160*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would warn of rising selling pressure.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – ( 260 – 210 ) = 160

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Canada TSX 60

Respect of the descending trendline on Canada’s TSX 60 weekly chart indicates another test of primary support at 645. Failure would signal a primary decline to 575*. Breach of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Money Flow would warn of rising selling pressure. Breakout above resistance at 715 is unlikely but would flag that the primary down-trend has ended.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 645 – ( 715 – 645 ) = 575

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China weakens

Dow Jones Shanghai Index respected resistance at 320 and is now testing support at 285. Failure would offer a target of 260*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero continues to signal a strong primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 290 – ( 320 – 290 ) = 260

DJ Hong Kong index is testing medium-term support at 360. Failure would mean a re-test of the primary level at 320; respect is less likely but would indicate another test of 410. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure.

Dow Jones Hong Kong Index

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Commodities

CRB Commodities Index is headed for another test of the descending trendline. Upward breakout would be a bullish sign, indicating that the down-trend is weakening — especially if accompanied by a 63-day Twiggs Momentum cross to above zero. Reversal below primary support at 293, on the other hand, would signal another decline with a target of 265*.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

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India warns of primary decline, Singapore may follow

India’s SENSEX broke through support at 15800/16000, signaling a primary decline to 14000*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero confirms strong selling pressure. The index later recovered above 16000 Monday; we will have to wait to see whether the new support level holds.

BSE SENSEX Index

* Target calculation: 16 – ( 18 – 16 ) =14

The monthly chart shows Singapore’s Straits Times Index headed for a test of primary support at 2500. Long-term bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a primary down-trend. Failure of support would signal a primary decline to 2100*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100

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S&P 500 breaks 1200

The S&P 500 index broke medium-term support at 1200 and is headed for a test of the primary level at 1100. Failure would offer a target of 900*. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a primary down-trend.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1300 – 1100 ) = 900

NASDAQ 100 index is similarly headed for the band of primary support between 2000 and 2050. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. failure of support would signal a primary decline to 1600*.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2400 – 2000 ) = 1600

Dow Jones Industrial Average monthly chart shows the index testing medium-term support at 11000. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero again warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would test the primary level at 10400; and failure of that level would remove any doubt regarding a bear market.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 10400 – ( 12300 – 10400 ) = 8500

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Euro approaches key support

The euro is headed for a test of primary support at $1.32.  The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of $1.22*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

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Commodities drag Aussie and Canadian dollar lower

Commodities are weakening and dragging the Aussie and Loonie lower. The Aussie dollar shows a similar iceberg pattern on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, warning of a primary down-trend. Breakout below primary support at $0.94 would offer a long-term target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie is also headed for a test of $0.94 against the greenback. The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong down-trend. Failure of primary support (0.94) would offer a target of $0.87*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87

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Commodities and Crude Oil

Brent Crude is testing medium-term support at $105/barrel. Failure is likely if the dollar continues to strengthen and would mean a test of the $99/$100 primary level. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below -5% would complete an iceberg pattern, indicating a solid primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of $85/barrel*.

Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 115 – 100 ) = 85

Roughly only 10% of an iceberg is visible at sea, with most of the ice-mass hidden below the water-line. Similarly, an “iceberg” pattern on a chart describes a situation where +/- 90% of Twiggs Momentum (or a similar indicator) is below zero with only a small peak protruding above. 

CRB Commodities Index is similarly headed for a test of primary support, at 295. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of 265*.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

That would have a negative impact on the Aussie Dollar and Canadian Loonie which closely track commodity prices.

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Europe warns of another decline

Dow Jones Europe Index is headed for a test of the band of support between 200 and 205. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a strong primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would offer a target of 150*.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 205 – ( 260 – 205 ) = 150

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