Tag: DAX Index

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Europe: Bullish except for FTSE

European markets continue to display healthy primary up-trends with the exception of the FTSE 100 which warns of selling pressure.

Germany’s DAX broke through medium-term resistance at 8500, offering a medium-term target of 9000* and a long-term target of 9500*. Reversal below 8000 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 7500.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 8000 ) = 9000 ; 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

France’s CAC-40 is testing resistance at its 2011 high of 4200. Retracement to short-term support at 4100 is likely. Respect of support would be a bullish sign, while breakout above 4200 would offer an immediate target of 4300* and a long-term target of 4500*. Reversal below 3900 is unlikely but would warn of a bull trap.

CAC-40

* Target calculation: 4100 + ( 4100 – 3900 ) = 4300 ; 4050 + ( 4050 – 3600 ) = 4500

Spain’s Madrid General Index followed through above 900, but is now retracing to test the new support level. Respect would confirm a long-term advance to 1050* (960* in the medium-term). Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 840 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050 ; 900 + ( 900 – 840 ) = 960

Italy’s MIB Index is testing resistance at 18000. Retracement to support at 17500 is likely, but respect would be bullish. Breakout above 18000 would offer an immediate target of 18500 and a long-term target of 20000*. Reversal below 16500 is most unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17500 + ( 17500 – 15000 ) = 20000

Bearish divergence on the FTSE 100 (13-week Twiggs Money Flow) warns of strong selling pressure. Reversal below 6400 would warn of a primary down-trend, confirmed if the rising trendline is broken. Reversal of TMF below zero would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 6750 is unlikely, but would signal a medium-term advance to the 1999 high of 7000.

FTSE 100

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Europe: Unleash the bulls

Spain’s Madrid General Index broke resistance at 900, indicating a long-term advance to 1050* (960* in the medium-term). Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 840 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.
Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050; 900 + ( 900 – 840 ) = 960

Germany’s DAX is similarly testing resistance at 8500. Breakout would offer a medium-term target of 9000* and a long-term target of 9500*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above 10% would also signal continuation of the primary up-trend.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 8000 ) = 9000; 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

France’s CAC-40 is testing resistance at 4120. Breakout would offer a medium-term target of 4300*, but follow-through above its 2011 high at 4200 would also confirm a long-term advance to 4500*. Reversal below 3900 is unlikely but would warn of a bull trap.
CAC-40 Index

* Target calculation: 4100 + ( 4100 – 3900 ) = 4300; 4050 + ( 4050 – 3600 ) = 4500

Italy’s MIB Index is also testing resistance, at 17700. Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure and breakout above 18000 would signal a long-term advance to 20000*. Reversal below 16500 is most unlikely, but would again warn of a bull trap.
MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17500 + ( 17500 – 15000 ) = 20000

The FTSE 100 is far more subdued, encountering resistance at 6600 after an end to the recent correction. Follow-through above 6700 would signal a medium-term advance to the 1999 high of 7000*, but reversal below 6500 would warn of another test of medium-term support at 6400. Failure of 6400, while unlikely, would test primary support at 6000.
FTSE 100 Index

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FTSE & DAX face stubborn resistance

The FTSE 100 followed-through above initial resistance at 6500, indicating another test of 6700/6750. Breakout above 6750 would offer a target of 7500*, but bearish 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Reversal below 6400 would warn of a test of primary support at 6000.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6750 + ( 6750 – 6000 ) = 7500

Germany’s DAX respected support at 8000, indicating another test of stubborn resistance at 8500. Declining momentum suggests the primary up-trend is slowing. Reversal below support at 8000 would confirm, while breakout above 8500 would offer a long-term target of 9000*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8400 + ( 8400 – 7800 ) = 9000

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Global markets bearish but ASX, India find support

US markets are closed for Labor Day. The S&P 500 ended last week testing its rising trendline and support at 1630. Breach would reinforce the bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, indicating a test of primary support at 1560. Recovery above the descending trendline is unlikely at present, but would warn the correction is ending. In the long-term, failure of primary support would offer a target of 1400*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1700 – 1550 ) = 1400

VIX below 20 suggests a bull market.
S&P 500 Index

The FTSE 100 closed above initial resistance at 6500. Follow-through would suggest the correction is over and another attempt at 6750 likely. Strong bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of selling pressure and breakout above 6750 is unlikely. Reversal below 6400 would warn of a test of primary support at 6000.

FTSE 100 Index

Germany’s DAX encountered stubborn resistance at 8500. Reversal below 8000 would test primary support at 7600, while breakout above 8500 would offer a target of 9000*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8400 + ( 8400 – 7800 ) = 9000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 recovered above 13500 and follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest the correction is over and another test of resistance at 15000 is likely. Reversal below 13200, however, would indicate a test of primary support at 12500. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite is testing resistance at 2100/2120. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 2050 would indicate another test of primary support at 1950. Breakout above 2200 and the descending trendline is unlikely, but would suggest that the down-trend is ending.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex encountered strong support at 18000/18500, evidenced by the long tails on the weekly candles and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow.  Expect another test of resistance at 20500. Follow-through above 19000 would strengthen the signal.

BSE Sensex Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of 5250 after breaking resistance at 5150. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 5250 would be a welcome sign, suggesting another primary advance, but respect of resistance and a lower peak on Twiggs Money Flow would warn of a reversal.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4750 ) = 5750

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Europe: DAX bullish, but FTSE selling pressure

Germany’s DAX recovered above the 2007 high at 8200. Follow-through above 8500 would offer a long-term target of 9500*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 8000 is now unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 7700.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

The FTSE 100 is consolidating between 6500 and the 2007 high of 6750. Breakout above 6750 would signal an advance to the 1999 high of 7000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of a correction. Reversal below 6500 is likely, and would indicate a test of 6000.
FTSE 100 Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index is testing resistance at 900. Long-term 13-week Twiggs Money Flow remains weak, but breakout above 900 would indicate an advance to 1050*.
Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050

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Europe: DAX and FTSE 100 recovery

Germany’s DAX recovered above its 2007/2008 high at 8200, signaling a primary advance with a long-term target of 9500*. Breach of resistance at 8500 would confirm. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow is above zero, but remains weak, warning of further retracement to test support at 8000. Reversal below 8000 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of the rising trendline around 7700.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

The FTSE 100 is testing resistance at the 2008 high of 6750. Breakout would signal an advance to 7500*. Follow-through above the 1999/2000 high at 7000 would confirm. Respect of 6750 would indicate further consolidation above primary support at 6000.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6750 + ( 6750 – 6000 ) = 7500

Italy’s MIB Index respected primary support at 15000. Breakout above resistance at 16000 indicates another test of 17500. Repeated troughs above zero on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow suggest a healthy up-trend.
MIB Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index displays a weaker retracement above long-term support at 760, while 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Breakout below 760 would warn of a test of the 2012 low at 600. Respect of support, however, would indicate another rally to 880* — especially if accompanied by breakout above 820 or 13-week TMF recovery above zero.
Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 820 + ( 820 – 760 ) = 880

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FTSE hesitates while DAX gaps ahead

Dow Jones Europe Index is ranging between 270 and 290 on the weekly chart, indicating a weak advance after earlier breaking long-term resistance at 265. Breakout above 290 would signal continuation, but reversal below 270 remains as likely and would warn of a reversal; confirmed if the index follows-through below 265.
Dow Jones Europe Index
The FTSE 100 broke resistance at 6500 (from the March 2013 peak), indicating an advance to 6900. But tall shadows (or candlewicks) on Thursday and Friday warn of short-term selling pressure and reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero strengthens the signal. Breach of support at 6400 would warn of another test of primary support at 6000.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

Germany’s DAX gapped above the declining trendline, signaling another primary advance, with a target of 9300*. Breach of resistance at 8500 would confirm. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 8000 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of 7700.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7700 ) = 9300

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Europe rallies despite broad selling pressure

The FTSE 100 respected its rising trendline and long-term support at 6000, indicating another test of 6750. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, continues to warn of selling pressure. Retreat below 6000 would signal a primary reversal.

FTSE 100 Index

Germany’s DAX also signals strong selling pressure, but recovery above 8000 would suggest another primary advance. Continued respect of the long-term rising trendline reflects a healthy up-trend.
DAX Index

Italy’s MIB Index respected primary support at 15000. Follow-through above 15500 would indicate another test of 17500.  Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates healthy buying pressure.
FTSE 100 Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index is edging lower, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow falling below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Recovery above 800 would suggest another weak rally, while failure of support at 750/760 would offer a long-term target of the 2012 low at 600*.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 750 – ( 900 – 750 ) = 600

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S&P500 holds strong while Canada and Europe weaken

10-Year Treasury yields broke resistance at 2.50% as bond-holders offload their positions. Expect weak retracement to test the new support level at 2.00%, but recovery above 2.50% is likely and would signal a long-term advance to test resistance at 4.00%. Breakout above 4.00% would end the 31-year secular bear-trend. Rising yields reflect market expectations that the economy will recover, enabling the Fed to curtail further quantitative easing.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The S&P 500 broke support at 1600 and is undergoing a correction to test the long-term rising trendline at 1500. Twiggs Money Flow reflects moderate selling and the primary up-trend looks secure.

S&P 500 Index
My concern is: can the US withstand negative sentiment from global markets? The rising VIX is not yet cause for alarm, with the market shrugging off the last foray above 20, but a spike above 25 would warn of elevated risk.

VIX Index

The TSX Composite broke support at 11900/12000 to signal a primary down-trend. Falling 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2012 low at 11250.

TSX Composite Index

The FTSE 100 is testing the rising trendline and support at 6000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal. Failure of support at 6000 would strengthen the signal.

FTSE 100

Germany’s DAX is headed for a test of the long-term trendline and primary support at 7400/7500. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Breach of 7400 would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.

DAX

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Europe: Broad selling pressure

The FTSE 100 encountered selling pressure at 6750, indicated by bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, and is correcting towards the rising trendline and support at 6000 on the monthly chart. Respect would signal a healthy primary up-trend.

FTSE 100 Index

Germany’s DAX is experiencing strong selling pressure. Medium-term support at 8000 is unlikely to hold, but respect of support at 7500, and the rising trendline, would still signal a healthy up-trend.
DAX Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index also displays selling pressure, with bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Reversal below 800 would warn of another test of the 2012 low at 600, confirmed if 750 is broken.
FTSE 100 Index
Italy’s MIB Index found support at 16000 on the daily chart and there is an absence of selling pressure, but the weight of other European markets may drag the index lower. Penetration of the rising trendline would signal a test of primary support at 15000. Recovery above 17000, however, would suggest another primary advance.
FTSE 100 Index

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