Iran Update
Key Points
- Iran is considering attending peace talks with the United States in Pakistan, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday.
- The US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place.
- Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz and remains a threat to oil pipelines in the region.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Don’t Chase the Rally
Key Points
- The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq QQQ ETF have made new highs at 7126 and 649, respectively, signaling a fresh advance.
- However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
The S&P 500 broke resistance at 7000, rallying to 7126 on Friday, buoyed by optimism over a resolution to the war with Iran.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Dire Straits
Key Points
- Brent crude futures are trading below $100 per barrel, as President Trump says Iran wants to “work a deal.”
- However, the physical market shows signs of distress, with Forties Blend close to $149 per barrel on Monday.
- The “genie is out of the bottle,” and the Gulf states are unlikely to settle for a deal that leaves Iran with the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz.
- A US blockade of Iranian ports could escalate tensions with China.
- Lithium miners jumped on sharp increases in EV sales in Europe and other countries that saw steep increases in energy prices.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Blockade
Key Points
- President Donald Trump announced a US blockade on Iranian shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Closure of the Strait will restrict 20% of the global oil supply.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
First Wave of Gulf War Hits CPI
Key Points
- CPI jumped by almost 0.9% in March, fueled by a steep rise in crude oil prices.
- A 21.2% jump in gasoline prices accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly CPI increase.
- We expect further waves as rising costs reach agriculture, mining, and transportation before filtering through to the broader economy.
- The S&P 500 stalled at 6800.
- University of Michigan consumer sentiment plunged to its lowest level since the late 1970s.
The first wave of price hikes hit CPI in March, with the index jumping 0.865%, fueled by a steep rise in crude oil prices driven by the war in the Persian Gulf.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Ceasefire Falls Apart
Key Points
- Israel stepped up airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
- Iran’s lead negotiator says a bilateral ceasefire is unreasonable in such a situation.
- Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after the ceasefire was agreed.
- The United Arab Emirates carried out air strikes on Iranian production and refining facilities. Iran retaliates with a barrage of missiles and drones.
- Ukraine defies calls to stop striking Russian energy facilities.
- Brent crude bids for spot delivery at $144 per barrel, but no sellers.
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If you are not a subscriber, to find out more click here
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Ceasefire But No Long-term Peace in Sight
Key Points
- President Trump announced he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iran will allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks.
- Brent crude futures (Jun’26) plunged to $93.86 per barrel.
- Gold climbed to $4,800 per ounce as the Dollar weakened.
President Trump has agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Brent Crude Spot at $141 per barrel
Key Points
- Brent crude spot prices reached $141.36 per barrel on Thursday.
- ISM Services PMI declined to 54% in March, reflecting slowing growth.
- However, the ISM Services Prices index accelerated to 70.7%, warning of an inflation shock.
CNBC reports that Brent crude spot prices reached $141.36 per barrel on Thursday, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
If you are not a subscriber, to find out more click here
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Jobs Rise but Prices Soar, Growth Slows and Liquidity Tightens
Key Points
- Non-farm employment jumped by 178,000 in March, well above the expected 60,000.
- The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%.
- Growth in aggregate hours worked, however, slowed to 0.4% over the past year.
- The ISM Manufacturing Prices index jumped to 78.3%, warning of a price shock.
- Aluminium prices soared to nearly $3,600/tonne due to supply shortages caused by the war in the Persian Gulf.
- Brent crude closed the week at $109 per barrel, with no end to the Iran war in sight.
The BLS reported a 178,000 increase in non-farm payroll in March, well above the 60,000 forecast. Employment growth has been erratic, averaging less than 15,000 over the past 6 months.
If you are not a subscriber, to find out more click here
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.