Gold & Commodities Archives - Page 72 of 72

August 9, 2011

Brent Crude tests $105/barrel

Today’s bounce on world markets caused a rally of Brent Crude on the hourly chart, testing the former primary support level at $105/barrel. Institutional buying of stocks does not change the fundamentals: high crude oil prices will cause a double-dip recession. No action by the Fed can change this.

Brent Crude Oil

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90

Retreat below resistance at $105 would confirm that Brent Crude has joined Light (WTI) Crude in a primary down-trend. Target for the down-swing is $90*.

We need a major re-adjustment of crude oil prices to set the global economy on a sound footing.

August 7, 2011April 18, 2024

Tipping point

Posted August 3, 2011 8:00 p.m. ET (10:00 a.m. AET) on Trading Diary.

Markets are approaching the tipping point at which they will confirm a primary down-trend. The probability of a bear market is around 75 percent, with 80 about as high as you can get at a turning point. As highlighted in May, every significant spike in crude oil prices in the last 50 years has been followed by a recession — and the current spike is likely to prove no different. Ben Bernanke will modestly decline to take the credit, but the initial groundwork for higher oil prices was laid by QEII. Prices had started to rise well before the conflict in Libya.

Investor flight to safety is clearly signaled by the sharp fall in 10-year treasury yields.

Other safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc display a corresponding spike over the last few days.