Category: Gold & Commodities

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Crude and commodities

Brent Crude is drifting lower but so far has not seriously tested medium-term support at $115/barrel. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, offering a target of $135*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would also strengthen the signal.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 115 ) = 135

The broader CRB Commodities Index is headed for a test of primary support at 295. Respect of zero (from below) by 63-Day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would confirm the signal.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

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Dollar and gold test key support levels

The Dollar Index continues to struggle with resistance at 80. Reversal below 78 would signal the end of the primary up-trend and a re-test of the 2011 low. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the warning, while respect would indicate another primary advance.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold failed to respond to the listless dollar, testing the long-term trendline and support at $1600/ounce. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating around the zero line indicates indecision. Recovery above $1700 would indicate a fresh primary advance, while failure of $1600 would warn of a primary down-trend — with a long-term target of $1200*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1600 ) = 2000; 1500 – ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 1200

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Crude oil and commodities correction

Brent Crude is headed for a test of medium-term support at $115/barrel. Respect would confirm the strong primary up-trend; strengthened if 63-day Twiggs Momentum forms a trough above the zero line. Breakout above $126 would offer a target of $150/barrel*.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150

The broader CRB Commodities Index broke its long-term rising trendline and is headed for a test of primary support at 295 . Failure would signal a decline to 265*. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line already indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

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Gold, Silver and the Dollar

The Dollar Index met strong resistance at 80.00 and is likely to re-test support at 78.00. Upward breakout would signal continuation of the primary up-trend, while failure of support would warn of reversal to a down-trend. In the longer term, breakout above 82.00 would offer a target of 86.00*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would reinforce the primary up-trend, while breach would indicate a primary down-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Gold continues to test the long-term trendline at $1600/ounce. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating around the zero line highlights uncertainty. Failure of support at $1600 would warn that the decade-long up-trend is weakening, while breach of primary support at $1500 would confirm. Recovery above $1700, however, would indicate another test of $1800, suggesting the start of a new up-trend. Breakout above $1800 would confirm, offering a target of $2000/ounce*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1600 ) = 2000; 1500 – (1800 – 1500 ) = 1200

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, is already in a primary down-trend, suggesting that spot prices are likely to follow. Peaks below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also indicate a strong down-trend.

Gold Bugs Index

Spot silver is also in a primary down-trend, having encountered strong resistance at $36/ounce. A medium-term descending triangle warns of further weakness. Failure of primary support at $26 would indicate a decline to $20*.

Silver

* Target calculation: 27.50 – (35 – 27.50 ) = 20

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Crude and Commodities falling

Brent Crude broke support at $122/barrel, warning of a correction to test $115. Respect of $115 or a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above the zero line would signal a strong primary up-trend. In the long term, breakout above $126 would offer a target of $150/barrel*.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150

The broader CRB Commodities Index is headed for a test of primary support at 295 after breaching the long-term rising trendline. Failure of support would signal a decline to 265*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line already indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

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Which way gold?

The Dollar Index is consolidating on the weekly chart, indicating uncertainty. Respect of resistance at 80.00 would warn of another test of support at 78.00, while breakout would indicate continuation of the primary up-trend. In the longer term, breakout above 82.00 would offer a target of 86.00*, while failure of support at 78.00 would signal a primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would also warn of a primary down-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Gold remains undecided despite a sharp fall on the Gold Bugs Index. The long tail on last week’s candle for spot gold indicates buying pressure at the $1600 support level. Recovery above $1700 would respect the long-term trendline and indicate another test of $1800, suggesting the start of a new up-trend. Breakout above $1800 would confirm, offering a target of $2000/ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough predominantly above the zero line would strengthen the bull signal. Reversal below support at $1600, however, would warn of a primary down-trend — confirmed if support at $1500 is broken.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1600 ) = 2000

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, is in a clear primary down-trend since breaking support at 500. Peaks below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also signal a strong down-trend.

Gold Bugs Index

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Crude oil & commodities

Brent crude continues to consolidate below resistance at $125/$126 per barrel. Upward breakout would signal a primary advance with a long-term target of $150*. Reversal below $122 is less likely but would warn of a correction to test support at $115.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150

The broader CRB Commodities Index is undergoing a correction. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate that the long-term up-trend is weakening. And failure of primary support at 295 would signal a decline to 265*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum (from below) warns of continuation of the primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

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Gold falls as the dollar rallies

The Dollar Index rallied to test resistance at 80.00. Breakout would indicate respect of the rising trendline and another primary advance. Recovery above 82 would confirm the target of 86*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would also strengthen the signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot gold responded by testing support at $1600/ounce. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate that the long-term up-trend is weakening. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend. Recovery above $1700 is unlikely but would indicate respect of the rising trendline and continuation of the long-term up-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, is in a clear primary down-trend since breaking support at 500. Peaks below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also signal a strong down-trend. Spot gold is likely to follow unless the Fed changes course and announces further quantitative easing.

Gold Bugs Index

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Crude oil finds resistance while commodities weaken

Brent crude is consolidating in a narrow range below $125/$126 per barrel. Upward breakout is likely and would offer a long-term target of $150.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150

Despite the weakening dollar, CRB Commodities Index is testing medium-term support at 310. Failure would indicate another test of primary support at 295. Breach of the long-term rising trendline would warn that the 4-year up-trend (similar to that of gold) is coming to an end. Recovery above 330 is as likely, however, and would signal the start of a primary advance, with a long-term target of 350.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 325 + ( 325 – 295 ) = 355

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Gold and the Dollar both weaken

The Dollar Index is retracing to test primary support at 78.00 on the weekly chart. Respect of the rising trendline would signal continuation of the primary up-trend, while failure of support would warn of a down-trend to test support at 73.00. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear warning.

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Despite the weakening dollar, spot gold is headed for the long-term rising trendline on the weekly chart. Failure of support at $1600/ounce would warn that the primary trend is weakening, while failure of $1500 would signal that the trend has reversed. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum into negative territory — for the second time recently after several years above zero — already warns of a primary down-trend.

Spot Gold Weekly Chart

* Target calculation: 1500 – ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 1200

The 4-hour chart shows gold respecting resistance at $1700 before retreating below medium-term support at $1670. Failure of short-term support at $1655 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level) would test $1630 and signal continuation of the down-trend. Recovery above $1700 is unlikely but would signal respect of the long-term rising trendline (on the weekly chart above) and resumption of the primary up-trend.

Spot Gold 4-Hour Chart

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