The divergence between Brent crude and WTI Light crude has widened to more than $20/barrel. WTI is clearly in a primary down-trend, but there is stubborn support for Brent at $104/105 per barrel. Resolution of the conflict in Libya and Nigerian supply fears would see Brent prices soften to within a few dollars of WTI.
* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90
The strength in the Brent reflects the ongoing loss of high quality Libyan crude and fears of its recent replacement Nigerian bonny light…… Royal Dutch Shell declared force majeure on its Nigerian Bonny Light crude oil loadings for June and July. Shell blamed production cutbacks caused by leaks and fires on its Trans-Niger Pipeline.