Some clients are understandably nervous about investing in stocks because of the volatility. Invest at the wrong time and you can experience a draw-down that takes years to recover. Many shy away, preferring the security of term deposits or the bricks and mortar of real estate investments.
The best argument for investing in stocks is two of the most enduring long-term trends in finance.
First, the secular down-trend in purchasing power of the Dollar.
Inflation has been eating away at investors’ capital for more than ninety years. Purchasing power of the Dollar declined from 794 in 1933 to 33 today — a loss of almost 96%. That means $24 today can only buy what one Dollar bought in 1933.
The second trend, by no coincidence, is the appreciation of real asset prices over the same time period.
The S&P 500 grew from 7.03 at the start of 1933 to 4546 in June 2023 — 649 times the original investment.
Gold data is only available since 1959. In April 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102, forbidding “the hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion, and Gold Certificates” by US citizens. Americans were required to hand in their gold by May 1st in return for compensation at $20.67 per ounce. Since then, Gold has appreciated 94.5 times its 1933 exchange value in Dollar terms.
Over time, investing in real assets has protected investors’ capital from the ravages of inflation, while financial assets have for long periods failed to adequately compensate investors in real terms (after inflation). The chart below compares the yield on Moody’s Aaa corporate bonds to CPI inflation.
Conclusion
Purchasing power of the Dollar depreciated by 24 times over the past ninety years due to inflation. Adjusting for inflation, the S&P 500 has grown to 27 times its original Dollar value in 1933, while Gold gained 3.9 times in real terms.
We would argue that the consumer price index understates inflation. Gold does not grow in value — it is constant in real terms.
If we take Gold as our benchmark of real value, then the S&P 500 has grown 6.8 times in real terms — a far more believable performance.
Stocks are a great hedge against inflation provided the investor can tolerate volatility in their portfolio. How to manage volatility will be the subject of discussion in a further update.
Acknowledgents
- Multpl.com for S&P 500 index price data.
- GoldHub for Gold price data