Here Comes the Dollar Wave Again | WSJ.com

Wall Street Journal opinion on the impact of QE3 on Asia:

If Asia stays true to form, the world is in for a bout of foreign-exchange interventions — some coordinated, some not — in a quest for stability. Yet these interventions will only encourage greater speculative flows, as some investors start betting on the next policy move. This would be America’s problem, too, given the growing number of American businesses trading with Asia that will grapple with a chaotic exchange-rate system…….

via Review & Outlook: Here Comes the Dollar Wave Again – WSJ.com.

Forex: Aussie Dollar, Euro, Pound Sterling and Canada's Loonie

The Aussie Dollar (daily chart) is headed for another test of resistance at $1.04 against the greenback. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.04 would offer a target of $1.06*.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.04 + ( 1.04 – 1.02 ) = 1.06

The Euro (weekly chart) is testing resistance at $1.32. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.32 — and penetration of the descending trendline — would confirm, offering an immediate target of the 2012 high at $1.35.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.28 ) = 1.36

Pound Sterling (weekly) rallied off primary support at €1.225/€1.23 against the euro. Breach would complete a head and shoulders reversal with a target of $1.18*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests a primary down-trend. Expect a test of resistance at $1.26 followed by another attempt at primary support.

Pound Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.23 – ( 1.28 – 1.23 ) = 1.18

Canada’s Loonie (daily) is consolidating between $1.00 and $1.01 (USD).  Downward breakout — and penetration of the rising trendline — would warn of another test of primary support at $0.96. But 63-day Twiggs Momentum is bullish and a trough above zero would suggest an advance to the 2011 highs at $1.06.

Canadian Loonie/Aussie Dollar

Gold and commodities fall

The Dollar Index is consolidating between 79 and 80. Upward breakout would test resistance at 81.00/81.50 — penetration of the descending trendline indicating the correction has ended — but the primary trend is downward and breach of support at 79 would signal another decline. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 79 – ( 81 – 79 ) = 77

Inflation expectations are easing, with spot gold undergoing a correction since breaking support at 1750. Expect short-term support at 1700 and penetration of the descending trendline would indicate another test of $1800 per ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero is likely — and would signal a primary up-trend, while breakout above $1800 would confirm.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

The DJ-UBS Commodity Index also reflects an easing inflation outlook, breaking medium-term support at 145 to signal a correction. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum is unlikely to remain above zero but a shallow trough would be a bullish sign.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Brent Crude is also falling, having broken support at $108 per barrel. Expect a test of $100. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 108 – ( 117 – 108 ) = 99

Nymex WTI Light Crude is similarly headed for a test of primary support at $76/$78 per barrel. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a primary down-trend.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling, Canadian Loonie and Aussie Dollar

The Euro rallied off support at $1.28 and is headed for resistance at $1.32. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.32 would confirm, offering an immediate target of the 2012 high at $1.35.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.28 ) = 1.36

Pound Sterling is testing primary support at €1.23 against the euro. Breach would signal a primary down-trend. Target for the completed head and shoulders reversal would be $1.18*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal.

Pound Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.23 – ( 1.28 – 1.23 ) = 1.18

Canada’s Loonie found strong support between $1.01 and $1.02 (USD).  Breakout would indicate an advance to the 2011 highs at $1.06. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum strengthens the signal.

Canadian Loonie/Aussie Dollar

The Aussie Dollar found support at $1.02/$1.015 against the greenback. Expect another test of $1.06. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum troughs above zero indicate a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.06 would offer a target of the 2011 high at $1.10*, though there is bound to be some resistance at $1.08.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.06 + ( 1.06 – 1.02 ) = 1.10

Forex: Euro recovers, Aussie & Sterling weaken

The Euro is headed for another re-test of resistance at $1.32 and its descending trendline. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. Reversal below $1.26 is unlikely but would warn of another test of primary support at $1.20.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.275 + ( 1.275 – 1.20 ) = 1.35

Pound Sterling is testing support at €1.23 against the Euro. Breach of support — and the rising trendline — would warn the primary up-trend is ending. Retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal.

Pound Sterling/Euro

Canada’s Loonie is testing support against the greenback at $1.02/$1.01.  Respect of support — with recovery above $1.027 — would confirm the primary up-trend. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Target for the advance is the 2011 high of $1.06.

Canadian Loonie/Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.04 +( 1.04 – 1.01 ) = 1.07

The Aussie Dollar found support at $1.02/$1.015 on the daily chart. Follow-through above $1.03 would suggest another test of $1.06. Failure of support is unlikely but would signal a primary down-trend. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum troughs above zero indicate continuation of the primary up-trend. Expect strong resistance at $1.06: the Aussie may be range-bound for some time.

Aussie Dollar/USD

Gold and commodities wait on the dollar

The Dollar Index rally recovered and is headed for a test of resistance at 81.00/81.50. Respect of resistance would confirm the primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero also signals a primary down-trend; a peak below zero would strengthen the signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78

Gold and commodities await clear direction from the dollar which, in turn, is dependent on the inflation outlook. Spot Gold encountered strong resistance at $1800 per ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend, while breakout above $1800 would confirm. Reversal below $1740 is unlikely but would warn of another correction.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

The RJ-CRB Commodities Index has been de-listed so I am now using the DJ-UBS Commodity Index, which retraced to test support at 145/146. Respect would indicate another test of resistance at 150/152 — as suggested by recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero — while failure would warn of another test of primary support at 125.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Brent Crude rallied off support at $108 per barrel and is headed for another test of $117. Breakout would advance to the 2012 high of $125/$126. The small 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggests a primary up-trend.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 117 + ( 117 – 108 ) = 126

Iran Lawmakers Press Ahmadinejad on Economy – WSJ.com

By BENOÎT FAUCON

The rial has shed about 25% of its value against the dollar this month amid mounting sanctions aimed at halting Iran’s nuclear program. The sudden decline in the rial last week, the latest leg in a yearlong decline, prompted Tehran’s first major riots in two years and a crackdown on informal money changers. The situation appeared to have stabilized Saturday as Tehran’s bazaar—a key indicator of Iran’s business climate—reopened after closing for the second half of last week. But in an indication the turmoil may not be over, many money changers refused to trade Sunday, either out of fear of arrest or because of a refusal to comply with a government order imposing a fixed dollar rate……

via Iran Lawmakers Press Ahmadinejad on Economy – WSJ.com.

Gold, TIPS and inflation

The Dollar Index rally to test resistance at 81.00/81.50 appears to be faltering. Respect of resistance would confirm the primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero earlier indicated a trend change; a peak below zero would strengthen the signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78

Spot Gold continues to test resistance at $1800 per ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend, while breakout above $1800 would confirm.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

Rising gold prices indicate increased inflation expectations. The spread between 10-year Treasury yields and the equivalent TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) yield also spiked up after the latest QE announcement but then retreated. The inflation effect of quantitative easing by the Fed is likely to be muted by deflationary pressures from private debt contraction — and a slow-down in government debt expansion after November (no matter who wins the election) — working in the opposite direction. I believe the Fed goal is to manufacture a soft landing rather than to generate inflation, which would go against their mandate.

10-Year Treasury Yield v. 10-Year TIPS Yield

Commodities: The RJ/CRB Commodities index has been delisted by ICE Futures US (formerly NYBOT). For details click here.

The equivalent DJ-UBS Commodity Index is testing resistance at 150/155. Respect would warn of another test of primary support at 125, but also that inflation expectations remain muted.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Brent Crude is correcting despite the rise in inflation expectations, reflecting slowing economic activity rather than improved security. Follow-through below $108 per barrel would indicate a correction to $100, while reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would suggest a primary down-trend.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

Chinese Yuan hits highest level against USD, but PBOC wants it weaker

by Zarathustra

After a long period since late last year as Chinese Yuan was expected to depreciate, it appears that the expectation of Chinese Yuan appreciation is back on people’s mind. Chinese Yuan hits the highest level since the revaluation started in 2005, completely reversing the depreciation since earlier this year…..

via Chinese Yuan hits highest level against USD, but PBOC wants it weaker.

Dollar bounce, gold and copper retrace

The Dollar Index is retracing to test resistance at 81.00/81.50. Respect would confirm the primary down-trend, as indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78

Spot Gold is retracing below resistance at $1800 per ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1800 would confirm, indicating rising inflation expectations in response to QE3.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

Copper is also retracing. Respect of 8000 would be a bullish sign. Again, a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate a primary up-trend. Breakout above 8600 would confirm, indicating that global economic activity is reviving. Failure of support at 8000 would suggest the opposite.

Copper

Brent Crude is falling after breaking support at $112 per barrel. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. The fall, despite increased inflation expectations, reflects slowing economic activity rather than increased security. Syria and Iran remain concerns in the Middle East. Test of support at $100 would warn of another down-turn.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers