Coverage of all major currencies and the US Dollar Index.
The Dollar Index found short-term support at 96.50/97 but the primary trend is down. Breach of support is likely and would signal another decline. The medium-term target is the 2016 low at 92/93.
Spot Gold encountered resistance at $1300/ounce and is retracing to test support at $1250. Fundamentals, like a weaker Dollar and rising political uncertainty, still favor a continued up-trend. Respect of support at $1250 would confirm.
Sterling continues to test primary support at 1.140 Euro. Breach would signal a decline to the 2016 low at 1.100.
The FTSE 100 advance stalled, signaled by a doji on the weekly chart, with bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term selling pressure. Retracement that respects support at 7400 would re-affirm the target of 7700*.
* Target: 7400 + ( 7400 – 7100 ) = 7700
The Dollar Index continues its downward slide. Breach of support at 97 indicates another decline. The medium-term target is the 2016 low at 92/93.
Spot Gold is advancing strongly, having broken resistance at $1260. The immediate target is $1300.
Iron ore is falling.
And the broader DJ-UBS Commodity Index is testing support at 82. Breach would signal a decline to test the 2015 low at 74.
But the Aussie Dollar rallied Friday, the large engulfing candle suggesting another test of resistance at 75 US cents.
Miners finished strongly, with the ASX 300 Metals & Mining index reflecting short-term buying pressure. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow recovered above zero.
The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5800. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 5800 is likely and would suggest another test of 5950/6000.
Banks also rallied, with the ASX 300 Banks index headed for a test of 8500. Expect strong resistance.
Perhaps this UBS report had something to do with it.
I believe that the latest rally is a secondary reaction and that the ASX is headed for a down-turn, with miners and banks leading the way. But it’s no use arguing with the (ticker) tape.
A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.
~ Jesse Livermore
The Dollar Index continues its downward spiral. Narrow consolidation at 97 is a bearish sign. Breach of support is likely and would indicate another decline. The primary down-trend has a medium-term target of the 2016 low at 92/93.
Spot Gold broke resistance at $1260, signaling another advance, with a target of $1300. Reversal below $1250 is unlikely but would warn of trend weakness.
The Dollar Index crashed on this week’s Trump turmoil. Follow-through below 98.50 confirms a primary down-trend with a medium-term target of the 2016 low at 93.
* Target: 99 – ( 104 – 99 ) = 94
Spot Gold found support at $1250 after Thursday’s retracement. Follow-through above $1260 would indicate another primary advance, with a target of $1300. Reversal below $1220 is unlikely but would signal a primary down-trend.
Discussion of a possible impeachment action against President Donald Trump is rife in the media and seems to have spooked financial markets.
The Dollar Index fell through support at 98.50, signaling another decline. The long-term target is 93.00.
Gold rallied, breaking through resistance at $1250/ounce. Follow-through above $1300 would signal another advance, with a target of the 2016 high at $1375.
Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated from resistance at 21000. Expect a test of medium-term support at 20400. Reversal below 20000 would be cause for concern.
The S&P 500 is headed for a test of medium-term support at 2320. Breach would likewise signal a strong correction.
We are likely to get a secondary correction but I expect the bull market to continue. Impeachment of Trump would be a temporary setback and would make me more bullish on the long-term outlook.
It’s probably better to have him inside the tent pissing out,
than outside the tent pissing in.~ President Lyndon Johnson on FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover whom he mistrusted
Copper is testing long-term support at 5400, suggesting weak demand from China. Breach would signal a primary down-trend.
The Yuan has enjoyed a respite, consolidating in a narrow line for several weeks. But this is likely to prove temporary, with further advances of the Dollar against the Yuan eroding PBOC foreign exchange reserves.
Shanghai’s Composite Index broke support at 3100, signaling a primary down-trend, but the long tail indicates buying support. Recovery above 3100 would suggest a false signal (or government intervention) while respect of resistance would confirm the down-trend.
* Target medium-term: May 2016 low of 2800
The big banks fell sharply on news of a new levy on bank liabilities in the latest budget. At this stage the ASX 300 Banks Index merely shows a secondary reaction. Breach of 8500, however, would signal a primary trend reversal, offering a medium-term target of 8000*.
* Target: 8500 – ( 9000 – 8500 ) = 8000
Resources stocks compensated, with the ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index rallying to test resistance at 2850/2900. Breakout is unlikely given the weak lead from iron ore. Reversal below 2700 remains likely and would strengthen the bear signal for resources.
Iron ore formed a bearish consolidation above support at $60. Breach would offer a short-term target of $50*.
* Target: 60 – ( 70 – 60 ) = 50
Selling of the Aussie Dollar continues, with a medium-term test of primary support at 71.50/72.00 now likely.
Consolidation of the ASX 200 above support at 5800 is a bearish pattern. Breach would signal a correction to test primary support at 5600*. Twiggs Money Flow still indicates long-term buying pressure and only a fall below zero would warn of a reversal.
* Target medium-term: 5800 – ( 6000 – 5800 ) = 5600
The Dollar Index rally ran into resistance at 100. Reversal below last week’s low would signal a medium-term decline to 94*.
* Target: 99 – ( 104 – 99 ) = 94
Spot Gold found short-term support at $1220. Recovery above $1250 would signal resumption of the primary up-trend but a test of $1200 is more likely and breach would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.
