Trade tariff impact on China & Australia

The yuan is falling as threat of a tariff war rises.


The Shanghai Composite Index is testing its 2016 low at 2700. Breach would warn of a decline to the 2014 low at 2000.

Shanghai Composite Index

Commodity prices are plunging in anticipation of falling demand from China.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Chinese monthly iron ore imports are down at 83.24 mt, compared to earlier peaks of 100 mt earlier in 2017. Iron ore spot price is testing primary support $63/tonne. A Trend Index peak below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would warn of a decline to $58/tonne.

Iron Ore

A falling Aussie Dollar may cushion local resources stocks from some of the impact.

Australian Dollar

But ASX 300 Metals & Mining index continues to test medium-term support at 3800. Breach of support is likely and would warn of a correction to test the rising trendline.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

Resources stocks remain in a primary up-trend but I am bearish on the medium-term outlook.