How Bureaucrats and Politicians Conspire to Rip Off Taxpayers | International Liberty

Dan Mitchell discusses a new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper entitled “Shrouded Costs of Government: The Political Economy of State and Local Public Pensions.”

….The politicians give the bureaucrats excessive compensation. But they make it difficult for taxpayers to figure out how they’re getting robbed by concentrating a big share of the excess in harder-to-measure fringe benefits.

Another advantage of that approach, by the way, is that the bill for all the retiree benefits doesn’t come due until some point in the future, by which time the politicians who put taxpayers on the hook often have retired or moved on to some other position.

Generous benefits for government employees are a neat way for politicians to avoid accountability. They do not appear in the budget and are a hidden liability of the government. For a start we need to prevent politicians from creating unfunded future liabilities not just for government employee benefits, but for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid funding. At present these are a hidden iceberg as they do not appear on the government balance sheet. It is too easy for politicians to kick the can down the road, failing to address any future funding shortfall. These unfunded future liabilities should be reflected on the balance sheet in order to improve accountability. If the actual liability is uncertain, then actuarial estimates can be used — in much the same way as used by insurance companies.

Read more at How Bureaucrats and Politicians Conspire to Rip Off Taxpayers | International Liberty.

Joseph Stiglitz: We have to shift our focus from money to credit | The IMF Blog

Joseph Stiglitz writes:

This might seem obvious. But a focus on the provision of credit has neither been at the center of policy discourse nor of the standard macro-models. We have to shift our focus from money to credit. In any balance sheet, the two sides are usually going to be very highly correlated. But that is not always the case, particularly in the context of large economic perturbations. In these, we ought to be focusing on credit.

This approach should be obvious to bankers who stand astride the two sides of their balance sheet: loan assets (credit) and deposit liabilities (money). Deposit liabilities may at times grow faster than loan assets but not vice versa.

Read more at The Lessons of the North Atlantic Crisis for Economic Theory and Policy | iMFdirect – The IMF Blog.

In Brown-Vitter Bill, a Banking Overhaul With Possible Teeth | NYTimes.com

Jesse Eisinger from ProPublica skewers big banks’ objections to increasing capital buffers as proposed by the bipartisan Brown-Vitter bill:

Goldman Sachs and S.& P. estimate the big banks might be forced to raise $1 trillion or more. That’s a lot, so much that the leviathans’ agents cry out that they couldn’t sell that much stock. But they don’t have to raise it all at once. And they can retain their earnings and stop paying dividends in addition to selling shares.

In putting that argument forward, they don’t realize they make Senator Brown’s and Senator Vitter’s case for them. If investors are so terrified of the big banks that they won’t buy their stock, that’s a terrific problem. Most of the big banks trade below their net worth, an indication that investors don’t trust them. Brown-Vitter might actually help banks by restoring that trust.

Read more at In Brown-Vitter Bill, a Banking Overhaul With Possible Teeth | Deal Book | NYTimes.com.

How Wall Street Defanged Dodd-Frank | The Nation

Gary Rivlin gives us an insight into the machinations of Wall street lobbyists on Capitol Hill:

As he prepared to sign the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act—the sweeping legislative package designed to prevent another spectacular financial collapse—into law, the president [Obama] first acknowledged the miracle of having a bill to sign at all. “Passing this…was no easy task,” he told the crowd of hundreds. “We had to overcome the furious lobbying of an array of powerful interest groups and a partisan minority determined to block change.”

Indeed, some 3,000 lobbyists had swarmed the Capitol in hopes of killing off pieces of the proposed bill……

That sense of victory barely lasted barely the morning. …..After Dodd-Frank’s passage, lobbyists for the big banks and industry trade groups divided themselves into eighteen working groups, each organized around a different element of the new law. “That’s when the real work began,” Talbott tells me……

Read more at How Wall Street Defanged Dodd-Frank | The Nation.

Eurozone risks Japan-style trap as deflation grinds closer | Telegraph

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports:

The region’s core inflation rate – which strips out food and energy – fell to 1pc in March. This is far below expectations and leaves monetary union with a diminishing safety buffer. “The eurozone is tracking the experience in Japan in mid-1990s. There is a very high risk of a slide into deflation,” said Lars Christensen, a monetary theorist at Danske Bank.

Read more at Eurozone risks Japan-style trap as deflation grinds closer – Telegraph.

Deutsche Bank Plans Capital Boost | WSJ.com

A welcome development reported by LAURA STEVENS , DAVID ENRICH and ULRIKE DAUER at the Wall Street Journal:

FRANKFURT–Deutsche Bank AG [DBK.XE] said Monday it will raise €2.8 billion ($3.65 billion) in fresh capital in a dramatic about-face for the bank, which has repeatedly said it won’t turn to shareholders for help boosting its capital cushion.

The bank, Europe’s second-largest by assets, has long faced doubts from investors and analysts about whether it has enough capital to absorb potential future losses and to meet increasingly stringent regulatory requirements……

Deutsche Bank has long been considered thinly capitalized but have always countered with the argument that the leverage is justified by the quality of the assets on their balance sheet. Low risk-weightings provided a false sense of security, with Greek and other PIIGS government bonds rated as zero-risk in the past, encouraging banks to leverage up on precisely the wrong kind of assets. It is time for risk weightings to be removed from bank capital ratios. The bipartisan bill sponsored by US senators Sherrod Brown and David Vitter is a step in the right direction.

Read more at Deutsche Bank Plans Capital Boost – WSJ.com.

S&P 500 at key resistance while Treasury yields fall

10-Year Treasury yields broke through support at 1.70%. Prior to 2012, the 1945 low of 1.70% was the lowest level in the 200 year history of the US Treasury. Expect a test of primary support at 1.40%.
10-Year Treasury Yields

Falling Treasury yields generally indicate a flight from stocks to the safety of bonds. The S&P 500, however, is consolidating below resistance at 1600. Breakout would suggest an advance to 1650, while reversal below 1540 would indicate a correction to the rising trendline at 1475. Recent weakness on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow favors a correction, but oscillation above zero indicates a healthy primary up-trend. A June quarter-end below 1500 would present a strong long-term bear signal.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1475 + ( 1475 – 1350 ) = 1600

The Nasdaq 100 index is testing resistance at 2900. Breakout would offer a target of 3400*, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow favors a break of 2800 and test of the rising trendline at 2700.
Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3400

Gold rallied to test resistance at $1500/ounce. Breakout would suggest a bear trap and a rally to $1600, but respect of resistance is likely and would signal another test of support at $1330/1350. A gold bear market indicates falling inflation expectations, but that could also translate into lower growth in earnings and higher Price Earnings ratios.
Gold

Structural flaws in the US economy have not been addressed and uncertainty remains high, despite low values reflected on the VIX.