Russia & Former USSR Archives - Page 13 of 16

May 23, 2014

What Ukraine Crisis Means for Future of Europe | SPIEGEL ONLINE

Interesting extract from Spiegel interview with Prof. Timothy Snyder from Yale:

SPIEGEL: What motivates Putin?

Snyder: I think Putin is playing an all-or-nothing game, geopolitically speaking. He no longer cares about tolerable relations with the EU or about a solid relationship with Ukraine. Putin has opted for something else, a much larger project, to destabilize Ukraine and the EU. It’s an all-or-nothing game because there is no going back, now that he has embarked on this path.

SPIEGEL: Can he win?

Snyder: There are two options now: Either he achieves his goals, or the European Union achieves political unity and ideological stringency. It would have to define itself as Russia’s adversary and, most of all, develop a joint energy policy with which it could affect Putin. If the EU could do that, there would be radical consequences for Russia. Then Putin would have to fall back on China, and Russia would become China’s Ukraine.

via Experts Discuss What Ukraine Crisis Means for Future of Europe – SPIEGEL ONLINE.

May 22, 2014

Ukraine crisis offers lessons in how to handle China’s ambitions

Chilling analysis by Simon Leitch of the use of force by Russia and China to achieve political objectives:

Because China and Russia are major powers with nuclear weapons, dangerous conventional forces and economic leverage, states seeking to deter them from territorial challenges lack credible threats. To address this they must learn the Cold War lessons of manipulating risk or forfeit the initiative to opponents.

This is a high-stakes game of chicken which could encourage smaller states to pursue their own nuclear deterrent and indulge in aggressive, irrational, North-Korean-style behavior in order to discourage aggression from their larger neighbors.

April 30, 2014

Challenging Putin’s Values | NYTimes.com

Thomas L. Friedman’s opinion at the NY Times:

…….Ukraine is not threatening Russia, but Ukraine’s revolution is threatening Putin. The main goal of the Ukraine uprising is to import a rules-based system from the E.U. that will break the kleptocracy that has dominated Kiev — the same kind of kleptocracy Putin wants to maintain in Moscow. Putin doesn’t care if Germans live by E.U. rules, but when fellow Slavs, like Ukrainians, want to — that is a threat to him at home.

Don’t let anyone tell you the sanctions are meaningless and the only way to influence Russia is by moving tanks. (Putin would love that. It would force every Russian to rally to him.) If anything, we should worry that over time our sanctions will work too well. And don’t let anyone tell you that we’re challenging Russia’s “space.” We’re not. The real issue here is that Ukrainians, as individuals and collectively, are challenging Putin’s “values.”

We couldn’t stop them if we wanted to. They’ve been empowered by globalization and the I.T. revolution. Get used to it, Comrade Putin.

April 26, 2014

Ukraine: An energy war based on gas pipelines [video]

April 13, 2014

Russia ‘Tourists’ Fighting in Ukraine | The Daily Beast

From Oleg Shynkarenko at The Daily Beast:

A journalist from Russia’s Moskva FM Radio broadcasting from Donetsk asked a local rebel commander, “Can you tell me your name?” He answered: “Of course, I am Paramonov Pavel Vladimirovytch.”

“Are you from Donetsk?”

“Of course not. I am from Yefremov, Tula region [Russia].”

“What are you doing in Donetsk?”

“I am helping brotherly people to defend their rights, do you have another questions?”

March 27, 2014

Vladimir Putin’s irrational behavior: Why the Russian president wins if we think he is crazy.

Scott Radnitz suggests that Vladimir Putin is not crazy — just deliberately acting that way.

….consider strategic theorist Thomas Schelling’s concept of the “rationality of irrationality.” This can be illustrated through the game of chicken, in which two drivers are heading for each other at full speed, and the first to swerve is the chicken. A driver who appears crazy enough to prefer dying over chickening out will always have the advantage. It is therefore rational for a player to convince his opponent that he is actually irrational.

March 26, 2014

Depleting Putin’s war chest

From Quartz:

The “First Law of Petropolitics,” coined by New York Times columnist Tom Friedman… states that when oil prices are high, the leaders of petro-states can become demanding and belligerent; when they are low, they are more prone to be pussycats.

Oil prices at elevated levels explain Russian belligerence. The graph below shows Brent Crude prices adjusted by the (US) consumer price index to reflect growth in real crude prices over the last decade. To bring crude prices down to pre-2005 levels will be no small feat.

Real Crude Oil Prices

March 23, 2014

George F. Kennan’s Prediction On NATO Expansion Was Right

Interesting argument against further expansion of NATO on Moon of Alabama:

George Kennan was the U.S. diplomat and Russia specialist who developed the cold war strategy of containment of the Soviet Union, though he later criticized its militaristic implementation. In 1998, when the Senate voted to extend NATO to include Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, Kennan was asked to comment. He responded:

“I think it is the beginning of a new cold war,” said Mr. Kennan from his Princeton home. “I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever.”

…..”It shows so little understanding of Russian history and Soviet history. Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians are — but this is just wrong.”

Read a full report of the 1998 interview with George Kennan at NY Times: Foreign Affairs | Thomas L Friedman.

March 22, 2014

Russia’s shrinking influence

Lorena O’Neil suggests that the number of Russian language speakers will halve from 300 million in 1990 to 150 million by 2025.

….countries that were traditionally bound to Russia by language, culture, energy and ethnicity are starting to gain independence, and relationships with other countries like China are increasing……..[Paul] Goble suggests that Putin will continue to engage in bombast with his neighbors because he’s playing an extremely weak hand that is getting weaker. “In a sense, the thuggishness that Putin is using (on) his neighbors is a product of the weakening of Russia’s cultural influence.”

March 14, 2014

Polish Foreign Minister Discusses Weak EU Position in Ukraine Crisis | SPIEGEL ONLINE

From a Der Spiegel interview with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski:

SPIEGEL: Why are the Poles so highly engaged in this conflict?

Sikorski: The Ukrainians are our neighbors. They are fighting for the same things we did back in 1989 – for a country that is more democratic, less corrupt and is European.