Countries & Regions Archives - Page 205 of 378

July 10, 2013

S&P 500 hesitates but ASX 200 follows through

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 1650. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above the zero line would signal a healthy primary up-trend. Target for the advance would be 1800*. Follow-through above 1660 would strengthen the bull signal, but reversal below 1640 would warn of another test of 1600 — and a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern (as shown by the arrows) if support at 1600 is respected.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The ASX 200 found resistance at 4900, with a tall shadow (or wick) on Wednesday’s candle. A healthy start this morning suggests a test of 5000. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 5850*. Reversal below 4860 remains unlikely, but would warn of another test of support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

July 10, 2013

Making banks hold more capital is not going to wreck the economy

Mark Gongloff quotes Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig of the Max Planck Institute, authors of the recent book The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong With Banking And What To Do About It, from their point-by-point rebuttal of bankers arguments that they should not be required to hold more capital:

“Many banks, including most of the large banks in the United States, are not even using all the funding they obtain from depositors to make loans,” Admati and Hellwig write. “If banks do not make loans, therefore, the problem is not a lack of funds nor an inability to raise more funds for profitable loans, but rather the banks’ choices to focus on other investments instead.”

July 9, 2013

NYSE Euronext to Take Over Libor | WSJ.com

Libor, the scandal-tarred benchmark that underpins interest rates on trillions of dollars in financial contracts, is being sold to NYSE Euronext, NYX -0.78% the U.S.-based company that runs the New York Stock Exchange. The deal, designed to restore Libor’s international credibility, was announced Tuesday by a British government commission and the NYSE.

From DAVID ENRICH and CASSELL BRYAN-LOW.

July 9, 2013

ASX 200 rallies despite weakness in Asia

An outside day reversal on Japan’s Nikkei 225 warns of retracement to test support at 13500. Respect of support — or a trough above the zero line on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate a healthy up-trend. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 12500.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing long-term support at 1950 — as shown on the monthly chart. Failure of support is likely and would warn of a test of the 2008 low at 1700. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal. Respect of support at 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of 2400/2500.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

India’s Sensex respected its rising trendline and is likely to test resistance at 20000. Breach of resistance would signal a primary advance, with a target of 22000*. Reversal below 18500 is unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate buying pressure.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index remains weak after finding support at 3100. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero after bearish divergence would warn of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at 3100 would confirm. Recovery above 3300, while unlikely, would signal a fresh primary advance.

Straits Times Index

The ASX 200 broke resistance at 4860, indicating the correction is over. Follow-through above 4900 would strengthen the signal. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates healthy medium-term buying pressure. Breach of resistance at 5000 would offer a long-term target of 5850*. Reversal below 4860 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

July 9, 2013

European rally follows US lead

The S&P 500 Index penetrated its descending trendline, indicating the correction has ended. Follow-through above 1650 would signal a primary advance to 1800*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The FTSE 100 broke through medium-term resistance at 6400, confirming the correction has ended, after earlier penetrating its descending trendline. Follow-through above 6500 (from the March 2013 peak) would strengthen the signal, indicating an advance to 6900. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would also strengthen the signal. In the long term, breakout above 7000 would offer a target of 8000*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 8000. Breakout above that and the declining trendline would signal another primary advance, with a target of 9300*. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate medium-term buying pressure. Respect of resistance and reversal below 7700 is less likely, but would warn of a test of prmary support at 7400.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7700 ) = 9300

Italy’s MIB Index is consolidating below resistance at 16000. Penetration of the declining trendline suggests the correction is over. Breach of resistance would signal an advance to 18000. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would test primary support at 15000.
FTSE 100 Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index broke resistance at 800 and its descending trendline, indicating the correction is over. We still need to watch the weak 21-day Twiggs Money Flow: a peak below zero would indicate selling pressure, but recovery above zero would suggest a fresh advance. Respect of the new support level at 800 would confirm an advance to 870. Reversal below 800, while unlikely, would warn of another test of primary support at 750.
FTSE 100 Index

July 8, 2013

Bond ETF exits proving costly| Bloomberg

Lisa Abramowicz and Mary Childs at Bloomberg write:

Investors who sought exchange-traded funds as a faster way to trade corporate bonds are finding that they can be as expensive to trade as the underlying debt.

As trading in the three-biggest credit ETFs surged to unprecedented levels last month amid the market’s biggest losses since 2008, the funds’ shares dropped as much as 1.1 percentage points more than the net value of the less-traded securities they hold. The two largest high-yield bond ETFs have lost about 6 percent since reaching a five-year high May 8. That’s about 2 percentage points more than the loss for the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Index….

July 8, 2013

It’s time we draft Aussie Rules to tackle Indigenous mathematics

I found this essay by Christine Nicholls, senior lecturer at Flinders University, truly inspiring:

When discussing how to embed Indigenous Australian knowledge and practices into the Australian national curriculum effectively – particularly the maths curriculum – there’s no better place to start than analysing our own distinctively Australian national sport: AFL, the winter game.

Why, you might ask. Well, have you ever wondered why Indigenous players frequently excel at Aussie Rules, where they are vastly over-represented in the national AFL competition?

She points out that this excellence is not natural ability, based on superior genetics, but learned from early nurturing.

Australia’s Indigenous languages are rich in spatial terminology. As linguist Mary Laughren once noted:

“Desert children’s ability to handle directional and spatial terminology in particular is taken as a sort of intelligence test similar to the counting prowess test among Europeans.”

This ability, to handle sophisticated terminology about space and directionality with confidence and accuracy, and the concomitant skill in land navigation even when one is completely surrounded by desert, is inculcated into children from the earliest infancy, even today.

This spatial terminology is largely foreign to our Western culture.

This culturally specific form of mathematical knowledge, intergenerationally transmitted, imparted in its most intact form via Aboriginal languages, plays itself out not only on the AFL field but in tradition-oriented Aboriginal art, and has an important role in other Indigenous knowledge.

The ability to apply such knowledge is a product of nurture, not nature – it cannot be genetically transmitted any more than it is possible to transmit concepts about number and computation to other little Australians, except via processes of acculturation.

This reinforces the view that one culture is not superior to another — just different. And that we have a great deal to learn from indigenous culture. As Will Rogers once said: “We are all ignorant. Just on different subjects.”

P.S. I will forgive Christine for classing AFL as the only football code requiring 360 degree spatial awareness. She obviously has not been exposed to Soccer or Gridiron.

July 7, 2013

ASX 200 threatens breakout

The ASX 200 has also penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting the correction is over. Breakout above 4850 would signal a test of 5250. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Target for a break above 5000 would be 5850* to 6000. Respect of 4850/4900 is unlikely but would warn of another test of support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

July 7, 2013

S&P500 tide changing

The VIX retreated below 15, signaling that market risk is falling.

S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 is testing its declining trendline after a brief consolidation above 1600. Penetration would suggest that the correction is over; confirmed if resistance at 1650 is broken. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow is leveling out and a trough above the line would signal a healthy primary up-trend. Target for an advance would be 1800*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The TSX Composite index penetrated its declining trendline, suggesting that the correction is over. Follow-through above 12250 would strengthen the signal, while a rise above 12400 would confirm. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate buying pressure. Target for an advance would be 12900/13000. Reversal below 11900 is now unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend.

Nikkei 225 Index