Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered.
The Financial Times quotes Igor Yurgens, a former Kremlin adviser:
He added that capital flight was likely to soar. He said his bank had received “a huge number of calls” into his bank’s Swiss offices from Russian clients over the past two weeks and a number of wire transfers into Swiss bank accounts out of Russia. Clients, he said, would prefer to keep money outside the country despite the risk of asset freezes.
Read more at Sanctions nerves ripple through Moscow – FT.com.
Canada’s TSX 60 is testing resistance at the 2011 high of 820. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signal buying pressure. Breakout above 820 would signal an advance to 840*. Expect support at 800 and the rising trendline.
* Target calculation: 805 + ( 805 – 770 ) = 840
TSX 60 VIX below 15 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.
The Nikkei 225 recovered above 15000, signaling another attempt at 16000. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate buying pressure, but bearish divergence flags long-term selling pressure and reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend — confirmed if support at 14000 is breached.
* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing primary support at 2000. Breach would warn of a decline to 1850*. Follow-through below 1990 would confirm. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would also warn of a primary down-trend. Recovery above 2080 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of 2150.
* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850
India’s Sensex broke through 21500, signaling an advance to 23000*. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 21000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.
* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000
The Euro broke through resistance at $1.38, signaling an advance to $1.43*. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum continues to warn of medium-term weakness, however, and reversal below $1.38 would suggest another correction.
* Target calculation: 1.38 + ( 1.38 – 1.33 ) = 1.43
Germany’s DAX retreated below 9500 to warn of another correction. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Respect of primary support at 9000 — and the rising trendline — would confirm a healthy up-trend. Breach of support is unlikely, but would signal reversal to a down-trend.
DAX Volatility at 20 reflects moderate risk.
The Footsie retreated to support at 6690/6700 on the daily chart. Breach would indicate another test of primary support at 6400. The primary trend is upward and a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would reflect medium-term buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200
The Aussie Dollar retreated from resistance at $0.91 and is likely to test medium-term support at $0.89. Breach of support would test the primary level at $0.87, while respect would favor another attempt at $0.91. The primary trend is down and failure of primary support would offer a target of $0.83*.
* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.91 – 0.87 ) = 0.83
The ASX 200 followed the Aussie lower, retreating below 5450 on the daily chart. Retreat of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would complete a bearish divergence, warning of a correction. Failure of support at 5350 would confirm. The primary trend remains upward and only breach of support at 5050 would signal a reversal.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
ASX 200 VIX below 15 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.
The S&P 500 found support at 1850, signaling an advance to 1950*. Repeated troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong long-term buying pressure
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15 continues to reflect low market risk typical of a bull market.
The Nasdaq 100 respected support at 3600, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Failure of support would warn of another correction. Follow-through above 3700, however, would offer a target of 3800*.
* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800
Bellwether Transport stock Fedex found support at $130 on the monthly chart. Breakout above $145 would offer a target of $170*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. A bullish sign for the broader economy. Reversal below $130 is unlikely, but would warn of a decline to $120.
* Target calculation: 145 + ( 145 – 120 ) = 170
Offering the people of Crimea a referendum — on whether to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation — may appeal to Vladimir Putin but he should not expect support from China. For two very simple reasons: Hong Kong and Taiwan. China claims these two territories as part of China, but there are no prizes for guessing the outcome if a similar referendum (to secede) were held in either territory.
Dean Baker writes:
….the trade deficit is a direct measure of the amount of demand that is going overseas rather than being spent here. This represents income generated in the United States that is not creating demand in the United States. By definition, this lost demand must be made up by other borrowing, either by the public sector (i.e. budget deficits) or the private sector. Currently the trade deficit is running at an annual rate of around $480 billion (@ 3.0 percent of GDP), which means that the sum of net borrowing in the public and private sector must be equal to $480 billion.
Read more at In the Real World the Trade Deficit Is More Important Than the Budget Deficit | Beat the Press.