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From a Der Spiegel interview with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski:
SPIEGEL: Why are the Poles so highly engaged in this conflict?
Sikorski: The Ukrainians are our neighbors. They are fighting for the same things we did back in 1989 – for a country that is more democratic, less corrupt and is European.
Read more at Polish Foreign Minister Discusses Weak EU Position in Ukraine Crisis – SPIEGEL ONLINE.
Dalibor Rohac at the Cato Institute suggest the Ukraine should focus on getting its economy back on track:
….to really understand where Ukraine is headed, it’s important to understand the roots of the unrest that led to the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych.
First, the country’s oligarchic elite, which ruled the country for the past two decades, cared little about the prosperity of ordinary Ukrainians. The evidence is not just in the tacky mansions of President Yanukovych and his men, but also in the fact that the average income in Ukraine is roughly one third of that in Poland even though both countries started from around the same point in 1990.
Second, the change of government in Ukraine follows a miscalculation on the part of the Kremlin, which long considered Ukraine as its client state, dependent on imports of natural gas from Russia. Ukrainians simply lost patience after their government effectively followed instructions from Moscow and canceled the broadly popular association agreement with the EU. Now that the plan to bully Ukrainians into submission has backfired, Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to leverage the situation to push claims to parts of Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine — most prominently Crimea and the port of Sevastopol.
Regardless of whether such territorial concessions become a reality, with an interim cabinet in place and a new presidential election scheduled for late May, it is time for Ukraine to reckon with the massive governance failure of the past twenty years.
The best response to Putin’s land grab would be to turn Ukraine into an economic success story and example to its large neighbor to the East.
Read more at How Ukraine Can Move Forward | Cato Institute.
Barry Ritholz interviews Paul Desmond, chief strategist and president of Lowry’s Research:
According to Lowry’s, “the weight of evidence continues to suggest a healthy primary uptrend with no end in sight.”
….. based on the data Desmond follows, he makes a fairly convincing case that this bull market still has a ways to go before it tops out.
Read more at How Market Tops Get Made – Bloomberg View.
The Financial Times quotes Igor Yurgens, a former Kremlin adviser:
He added that capital flight was likely to soar. He said his bank had received “a huge number of calls” into his bank’s Swiss offices from Russian clients over the past two weeks and a number of wire transfers into Swiss bank accounts out of Russia. Clients, he said, would prefer to keep money outside the country despite the risk of asset freezes.
Read more at Sanctions nerves ripple through Moscow – FT.com.
Canada’s TSX 60 is testing resistance at the 2011 high of 820. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signal buying pressure. Breakout above 820 would signal an advance to 840*. Expect support at 800 and the rising trendline.
* Target calculation: 805 + ( 805 – 770 ) = 840
TSX 60 VIX below 15 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.
The Nikkei 225 recovered above 15000, signaling another attempt at 16000. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate buying pressure, but bearish divergence flags long-term selling pressure and reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend — confirmed if support at 14000 is breached.
* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing primary support at 2000. Breach would warn of a decline to 1850*. Follow-through below 1990 would confirm. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would also warn of a primary down-trend. Recovery above 2080 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of 2150.
* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850
India’s Sensex broke through 21500, signaling an advance to 23000*. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 21000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.
* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000
The Euro broke through resistance at $1.38, signaling an advance to $1.43*. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum continues to warn of medium-term weakness, however, and reversal below $1.38 would suggest another correction.
* Target calculation: 1.38 + ( 1.38 – 1.33 ) = 1.43
Germany’s DAX retreated below 9500 to warn of another correction. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Respect of primary support at 9000 — and the rising trendline — would confirm a healthy up-trend. Breach of support is unlikely, but would signal reversal to a down-trend.
DAX Volatility at 20 reflects moderate risk.
The Footsie retreated to support at 6690/6700 on the daily chart. Breach would indicate another test of primary support at 6400. The primary trend is upward and a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would reflect medium-term buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200
The Aussie Dollar retreated from resistance at $0.91 and is likely to test medium-term support at $0.89. Breach of support would test the primary level at $0.87, while respect would favor another attempt at $0.91. The primary trend is down and failure of primary support would offer a target of $0.83*.
* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.91 – 0.87 ) = 0.83
The ASX 200 followed the Aussie lower, retreating below 5450 on the daily chart. Retreat of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would complete a bearish divergence, warning of a correction. Failure of support at 5350 would confirm. The primary trend remains upward and only breach of support at 5050 would signal a reversal.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
ASX 200 VIX below 15 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.