Category: Countries & Regions

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If we don’t understand both sides of China’s balance sheet, we understand neither | Michael Pettis

From Michael Pettis’ OpEd in the Wall St Journal:

History suggests that developing countries that have experienced growth “miracles” tend to develop risky financial systems and unstable national balance sheets. The longer the miracle, the greater the tendency. That’s because in periods of rapid growth, riskier institutions do well. Soon balance sheets across the economy incorporate similar types of risk.

….Over time, this means the entire financial system is built around the same set of optimistic expectations. But when growth slows, balance sheets that did well during expansionary phases will now systematically fall short of expectations, and their disappointing performance will further reinforce the economic deceleration. This is when it suddenly becomes costlier to refinance the gap, and the practice of mismatching assets and liabilities causes debt, not profits, to rise.

Read more at If we don’t understand both sides of China’s balance sheet, we understand neither | Michael Pettis’ CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

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NYSE Short Sales

NYSE short sales and daily volume are only published 24 hours after the close of trade, but are still a useful indication of where the market is headed. Short sales over 500 million on Monday, remain elevated. Keep an eye out for any increase above 600 million this week — which would warn of rising selling pressure and a likely breach of support.

NYSE Daily Volume & Short Sales

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S&P 500: Dead cat bounce?

After Friday’s narrow consolidation between 1970 and 1990, S&P 500 September 2015 E-mini futures broke support at 1970, indicating moderate selling pressure.

S&P 500 September 2015 E-mini

Sound domestic economic performance is likely to ensure that the S&P 500 returns to its primary up-trend in the medium- to long-term, but upheaval in international financial markets may have sapped investor confidence in the short- to medium-term. The doji star on the daily chart reflects indecision. A close below 1970 would suggest another test of support at 1870, with respect of resistance at 2000 a bearish sign. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero would also warn of selling pressure. Follow-through above 2000 is less likely, but would indicate light selling and a snappy recovery.

S&P 500

NYSE volumes reflect the increase in activity, starting Friday August 21st, with daily volumes over 2 billion and short sales jumping to 800 million. It will be worth keeping an eye on short sales this week. Recovery above 600 million would warn of rising selling pressure.

NYSE Daily Volume & Short Sales

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Greece and Its Misguided Champions

From Michael G. Jacobides in Harvard Business Review:

….while some EU policies are punitive or counter-productive, the strength of opinion of pundits long on conviction and short on detail seems to ignore the real root cause of the crisis. This is that the Greek economy has become inward-looking, unproductive, incumbent-favouring, and rife with rent-seeking. They may also underestimate how Grexit would exacerbate many of the Greek pathologies at the root of the crisis.

Greece’s main problem isn’t its currency. Rather, it is that its Byzantine regulations and institutional uncertainties discourage investments and reduce competitive pressures. Grexit would further restrict available capital, shatter the fragile banking sector, and increase the investment gap, which, as McKinsey’s recent study shows, is the key issue.

Read more at Greece and Its Misguided Champions.

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ASX during the 1997 Asian financial crisis

Performance of the All Ordinaries during the 1997 Asian financial crisis and ensuing Russian financial crisis in 1998.

All Ordinaries 1996-1998

The index gained 7.9% in 1997 and 7.5% in 1998 despite the upheaval in Asian markets. Australia is now a lot more reliant on exports to Asia, however, than in 1997/98.

All Ordinaries

Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of long-term selling pressure. Follow-through of the All Ords below 5000 would confirm a primary down-trend.

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S&P 500 during the 1997 Asian financial crisis

Here is the performance of the S&P 500 during the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the ensuing Russian financial crisis in 1998.

S&P 500 1996-1998

The index gained 31% in 1997, and 26.7% in 1998, despite the upheaval in Asian markets. Global markets are nowadays a lot more interconnected, however, than in 1997/98.

S&P 500

All the same, gradual decline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term selling pressure — a secondary rather than a primary movement.

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Shanghai: Stocks in free-fall

Dow Jones Shanghai Index broke support at 440. Expect more government efforts, near the close, to shore up support. As futile as attempting to hold back the tide. Target for the breakout is 330*.

DJ Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 440 – ( 550 – 440 ) = 330

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Australian Dollar during the 1997 Asian financial crisis

Performance of the Australian Dollar during the Asian financial crisis. The falling Dollar acted as a buffer, protecting the Australian economy from the Asian contagion.

AUDUSD 1996-1998

A similar 25% fall from today’s 72 US cents would offer a target of 54 US cents. No science to this. Simply speculation.

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