The recent seasonal adjustments to the CPI and the reduction in the level of underlying inflation blunts the force of the RBA’s recent argument about inflationary pressures. But, absent an offshore catalysing event, that alone won’t make them cut rates.
Rather I think that household retrenchment and saving will lower economic activity in the economy and that the RBA has overplayed the extent that the mining boom induced income will wash through the Australian economy.
Increasingly, we are getting confirmation of this theory. Unfortunately, we are seeing Australians lose jobs at an increasing rate. Data released yesterday by Westpac on consumer unemployment expectations suggests this is going to get worse.
Aussie slides against US and Kiwi Dollar
Flight to safety weakened the Australian Dollar which broke support at $1.04 against the greenback. Expect another test of parity. 63-Day Momentum crossing below zero warns that the primary up-trend may be reversing. Breach of support would confirm.
* Target calculation: 1.05 – ( 1.10 – 1.05 ) = 1.00
The Aussie Dollar is also testing support at $1.25 against its Kiwi partner. The primary trend is down and follow-through below $1.245 would indicate a down-swing to the lower trend channel over the next few months.
* Target calculation: 1.24 – ( 1.28 – 1.24 ) = 1.20
ASX 200 tests key support level
The ASX 200 fell sharply, headed for a test of its key support level at 4000. Low volume indicates weak support and downward breakout would signal a primary down-swing to 3500*.
* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500
Aussie Dollar weakens
The Aussie Dollar is testing support at $1.045 against the greenback; failure would warn of another down-swing to parity*. Breakout above $1.075, however, would re-visit $1.10.
* Target calculation: 1.05 – ( 1.10 – 1.05 ) = 1.00
AUDUSD is strongly influenced by commodity prices and closely tracks the CRB Commodities Index. $CRB is rising and breakout above 350 would indicate a primary advance to 385* — suggesting increased support for the Aussie Dollar.
* Target calculation: 350 + ( 350 – 315 ) = 385
ASX 200 threatens support
The ASX 200 is headed for another test of support at 4000. Declining volume displays no evidence of bargain-buying. Failure of support is likely and would offer a target of 3500*.
* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500
Australia Investor Confidence at Lowest Level Since 2009 – WSJ.com
Australians face rising electricity bills, fuel prices and mortgage rates, and the increasing cost of living has been exacting a toll on the economy.
Neither consumers nor businesses are in the mood to borrow in a major way. Veda’s quarterly Consumer Credit Demand Index, released Monday, showed consumer credit demand has dropped 5.1% since March. Business credit growth was flat in July, after having not posted growth for four straight months, St. George Bank economist Janu Chan said. In the year to July, business credit contracted 1.9%. “Lackluster growth in business credit is consistent with softening business confidence, and adds to evidence that certain sectors of the economy are doing it tough,” Ms. Chan said in a note.
via Australia Investor Confidence at Lowest Level Since 2009 – WSJ.com.
Fighting Australia’s “hot money” problem – macrobusiness.com.au
Australia is a large net borrower from the rest of the world. A large deficit in a capital account along with a deficit in the balance of trade while the currency is rising are all strong evidence that Australia has a problem with currency speculation.
Currency speculation, sometimes called “hot money” , needs to be controlled because it can cause some serious imbalances in the local economy both on the way in, and on the way out. There are a number of well-known symptoms for hot money in-flows, these include:
• Asset bubbles
• Currency appreciation
• Inflation
via Fighting Australia’s “hot money” problem – macrobusiness.com.au.
ASX 200 headed for another test of 4000
Declining volume and strong red candles at the recent ASX 200 reversal warn of another test of 4000. Support at 4000 is unlikely to hold unless there is a strong spike in volume, similar to that in early August. Failure would offer a target of 3500*.
* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 -4000 ) = 3500
A longer-term view of the All Ordinaries Index shows declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, warning of selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500
The Rolex economy – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au
My main concern is that frighteningly, the RBA, and probably much of the government, sees Australia’s future as a single bet on mining, and is willing to sacrifice much of the remaining economy for this to happen……. Remember, the minerals will be in the ground if we don’t mine them now, but the decades of production chains elsewhere in the economy are easily destroyed and slow to rebuild.
I acknowledge that the RBA has a single tool in its toolbox, but surely the message we should be hearing is that a strong and stable economy is a diverse economy. Quarry Australia is a very volatile and risky place to want to be.
via The Rolex economy – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.
Disleveraging and retail – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au
We’ve long established the link between [Australian] house prices and retail sales, but here is a pretty clear illustration of the link between mortgage creation and sales.
This stands as a stark warning to anyone expecting a bounce in retail sales so long as disleveraging continues. Let alone actual deleveraging.
via Disleveraging and retail – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.