Westpac: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

It appears that the objective of this Statement is to emphasise that without a significant deterioration in global financial conditions policy should remain unchanged. When you assess the various pieces of the Bank’s description of the domestic economy – weak employment; rising unemployment rate; subdued retail spending; soft housing market; below trend growth outside mining; scaling back of public investment; building construction subdued; inflation to remain around the mid-point of the target range; policy at neutral, not stimulatory – we see a fairly clear case for policy to move into the stimulatory zone immediately. Of course our forecasts as contrasted with the Bank’s forecasts clearly suggest that the qualitative descriptions provided in this statement are understating the need for a policy response.

It has been and remains our view that a further 50bps in policy easing can be justified immediately although our forecast is that this adjustment is likely to occur over a three to four month period. We find the use of the requirement that demand conditions need to weaken materially before a rate cut can be delivered overly conservative and expect that the Bank’s policy will change more rapidly than we assess is their current intention.

Consequently at this stage we maintain our view that the next rate cut in this cycle can be expected in March to be followed by a move in May but recognise that we are currently dealing with a central bank that while acknowledging all the reasons policy needs to be stimulatory appears to have no immediate intention to move.

Bill Evans
Chief Economist

Westpac Economic Update: RBA leaves rates unchanged

The Board of the Reserve Bank surprised us with a decision to hold the cash rate unchanged at 4.25%. Whilst this indicates that for the time being the Bank is assessing the risks somewhat differently to ourselves we are not inclined to change our core view that a further 50bps in easing can be expected over the course of the first half of this year.

Bill Evans
Chief Economist

ASX 200 weakly bullish

The ASX 200 breched its descending trendline, indicating that the primary down-trend is over. Breakout above 4400 would signal the start of a new up-trend. Twiggs Money Flow (13 week) continues to oscillate around the zero line, however, suggesting weakness.

Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800

Forex: EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, JPY, ZAR

The euro remains in a strong primary down-trend. The current rally is testing resistance at $1.32, but 63 -day Twiggs Momentum continues to trend downwards. Breach of support at $1.26 would signal a down-swing to $1.20*.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.20

Pound Sterling has breached its declining trendline against the greenback, warning that a bottom is forming. Breakout above $1.62 would complete a double bottom  reversal, testing the 2011 high at $1.68.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.62 + ( 1.62 – 1.53 ) = 1.71

Canada’s Loonie also signals that a bottom is forming.  Breakout above $1.01 would indicate the start of a primary up-trend, with an initial target of $1.06*.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The Aussie is testing resistance at $1.08. Breakout would similarly signal a primary up-trend with an initial target of $1.18*.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.98 ) = 1.18

The greenback is testing primary support at 76 against the Japanese yen. Breakout would offer a target of 72*. Recovery above the declining trendline, however, would suggest that a bottom is forming — confirming the large bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum — while breakout above 80 would signal a primary up-trend.

Index

* Target calculation: 76 – ( 80 – 76 ) = 72

The South African Rand is strengthening against the US Dollar, while encountering resistance at R8.50 against its Australian counterpart. Downward breakout from the ascending triangle would warn of a correction to test the long-term trendline at R7.50, while breakout above R8.50 would indicate another primary advance, with a target of R9.50*.

Index

* Target calculation: 8.50 + ( 8.50 – 7.50 ) = 9.50

Australia: ASX 200

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 4400. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 4400 would complete a higher trough, signaling the start of a primary up-trend, but selling pressure in US and Chinese markets may prevent this.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800

Australia, Japan and South Korea

Australia’s ASX 200 index is lagging other resources markets, but penetration of the descending trendline on Monday suggests that a bottom is forming. Breakout above 4400 would signal a primary up-trend, with an initial target of 4800*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for a test of 9100, but still has some way to go. Cross-over of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would be a bullish sign.

Nikkei 225 Index


Dow Jones South Korea Index is testing resistance at 420. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 420 would complete a higher trough, signaling a primary up-trend. Target for the initial advance would be 460*.

DJ South Korea Index

* Target calculation: 420 + ( 420 – 380 ) = 460

Australia and Asia

Australia’s ASX 200 index continues to range between 3850 and 4350. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflects medium-term selling pressure, but the long-term rise reflects buying support. Failure of support at 4000 would suggest another test of 3850, but only breakout from the range will offer a clear long-term signal.

ASX 200 Index


China’s Shanghai Composite index respected resistance at 2300, suggesting a decline to 2000*. Deep negative values on 63-day Twiggs Momentum are evidence of a strong primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2300 – 2150 ) = 2000

India’s Nifty Index is headed for a test of the upper border of its downward trend channel at 5200. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero continues to indicate a strong primary down-trend.

S&P/NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5600 + ( 6600 – 5600 ) = 5100

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell sharply Monday to test short-term support at 8360. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Breakout below 8200 would warn of another primary decline, with a target of 7400*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9000 – 8200 ) = 7400

Eurosis and US window-dressing

Neurosis: Emotional disorder arising from no apparent organic lesion or change and involving symptoms such as insecurity, anxiety, depression, and irrational fears…… No longer in scientific use.

Eurosis: Economic disorder involving symptoms such as insecurity, anxiety and depression, arising from rational fears of a collapse of the European monetary and banking system……. No longer of much use.

Europe

Dow Jones Europe index encountered (medium-term) resistance at 240. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Expect a test of primary support at 210. Failure of support would indicate a fall to 160*.

DJ Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – (260 – 210 ) = 160

US

The S&P 500 index is stronger, testing resistance at 1300. Breakout would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. We are likely to see significant window-dressing ahead of the November 2012 election. The market may well respond, but the real picture is bleaker with an economy reliant on deficit-spending in order to avoid a slide back into recession. Respect of resistance at 1300 would warn of another test of primary support at 1160.

S&P 500 Index


Australia

ASX 200 index reflects the middle ground. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure but the index is presently testing primary support at 4000. Failure would signal a fall to 3650*. News of a fresh stimulus program in China, however, should help support resources stocks.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – (4350 – 4000 ) = 3650

The significance of tax components within your SMSF – Warrick Hanley

Have you ever taken note of the tax components within your SMSF? Behind the balance of your member account are two main components that make up your superannuation savings – these are the Taxable Component and the Exempt (or Tax Free) Component.

The Taxable bucket consists of contributions made to superannuation where a tax deduction has been claimed (i.e. SGC, salary sacrifice, personal deductible contributions) and the Exempt bucket is made up of after-tax contributions. Contributions where a tax deduction has been claimed are officially referred to as Concessional Contributions and after-tax contributions referred to as Non-Concessional Contributions.

Whilst your member balance is in accumulation phase (i.e. where you are not drawing an income) all positive and negative investment earnings will effectively be allocated to or from the Taxable Component. Then, once you eventually commence an income stream, the proportion of your components will freeze and the income stream will forever maintain the same proportion to each component.

For example, if you had an accumulation balance of $440,000 in year 1 made up of a $375,000 Exempt Component (85% of balance) and a $65,000 Taxable Component (15% of balance) and during that year earnings allocated to your balance amounted to $60,000, then your new account balance would be $500,000 and the $60,000 would be added to your Taxable Component – $125,000 (25% of balance). The Exempt Component would remain at $375,000 (75% of balance).

Let’s say at the beginning of year 2, you retire and decide to commence an income stream with your total balance. When you commence an income stream, the proportions of your income stream balance will remain as they were when it started (25%/75%) and all earnings will also be allocated proportionately. Furthermore, any withdrawals will need to be made proportionately. The effect of this is that your income stream account will always remain 25% Taxable/75% Exempt.

The significance of tax components is that it determines how tax will be paid on any withdrawals made from your account. For instance, if you are between the ages of 55 and 60 and in receipt of a superannuation income stream (using the same 25%/75% split above), 25% of the pension payment will be taxed at your marginal tax rate and 75% will not be assessed for tax at all. A 15% rebate will also be applied to reduce the tax on the Taxable portion. Under current legislation, all income received by those over age 60 is not assessed, so tax components are irrelevant in this instance – however legislation has been known to change.

The tax components are also important when you pass away. If you were to pass away, irrespective of age, and your member balance is paid as a lump sum to a ‘tax dependant’ (including spouse, child under 18, someone financially dependant – to name a few) your balance will be paid out completely tax free regardless of tax components. However, where your member balance is paid as a lump sum to a ‘non-tax dependant’, such as a child over 18, only the Exempt Component will be received by them tax free, with the remainder being taxed at 15%. So, based on our $500,000 account balance above, $18,750 in tax would be paid if you were to pass away and leave your balance to a ‘non-tax dependant’.

This highlights the benefits of having more of your account balance made up of the Exempt Component. If you are over 60 you may have the ability to withdraw some or all of your account balance without paying tax and then re-contribute it as a Non-Concessional contribution – thereby converting your total balance to Exempt component or at least watering down the Taxable Component.

However, if this strategy would cause you to breach contribution caps, or if you are between age 55 and 60 and would incur tax from employing such a strategy, then there may be another way to eliminate your taxable component, provided you have the ability to commence an income stream.

Let’s go back to year 1, where your account balance was $440,000 and instead of earning $60,000, lets say your balance declined by $65,000. Remember, we are in accumulation phase; so all earnings are effectively added to or subtracted from the taxable component. Based on our initial 85%/15% split – our new balance would be $375,000 and would be made up 100% of the Exempt component. Knowing that you have the ability to recoup these losses over the next few years, it may be an idea to commence an income stream now, which will forever be 100% Exempt as all earnings to the account are allocated proportionately. Sure, you now need to draw a minimum income stream, but being made up purely of the Exempt component would mean no income tax. If you don’t need the income, why not just contribute it back into super? Better yet, salary sacrifice the equivalent of this income stream from your wage.

Warrick Hanley

Chairman and Founder, SMSF Education

Subscription is free. Subscribe now for your chance to win an iPad2.

The information above is general information only and is not intended to be taken as personal advice. It is important that you consider your personal circumstances and seek professional advice from your financial planner and accountant prior to implementing any such strategies, as incorrect implementation may lead to excess taxes, penalties or losses.

Asia-Pacific: ASX 200 and DJ South Korea tank

Australia’s ASX 200 index fell sharply Monday. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of medium-term support at 4000 is likely, while breach of the primary level at 3850 would signal a decline to 3350*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 3850 – (4350 – 3850 ) = 3350

South Korea shows a similar pattern, with the Dow Jones index testing medium-term support at 380 following bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Breach of primary support at 350 would signal a primary decline to 280*.

DJ South Korea Index

* Target calculation: 350 – ( 420 – 350 ) = 280