Australia & NZ Archives - Page 86 of 97

March 15, 2012

Forex: Australia, Canada and South Africa

A stronger greenback and weaker commodity prices are likely to depress resource-rich currencies. Canada’s Loonie stood up surprisingly well, mainly because of rising crude oil prices. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovered above zero, indicating a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would strengthen the signal, offering a target of the 2011 high at $1.06.

Canadian Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.95 ) = 1.07

The Aussie Dollar weakened along with commodity prices. Failure of support at $1.04 would warn of a correction to primary support at $0.96. Penetration of the rising trendline and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal.

Aussie Dollar

The Aussie Dollar found support at R8.00 South African Rand. Expect a rally to test the upper range border at R8.50, but failure of support would test the long-term trendline at R7.50*. Penetration of the trendline and/or reversal of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

Aussie Dollar/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

March 12, 2012

Australia: ASX 200

The ASX 200 Index continues to signal medium-term selling pressure with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow respecting the zero line (from below). Reversal below 4180 would suggest (and below 4150 confirm) a correction to test primary support at 4000.

ASX 200 Index

March 8, 2012

Aussie Dollar, Canadian Loonie and commodities

The CRB Commodities Index retreated from resistance at 325. Failure of medium-term support at 310 would signal a test of primary support at 295. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

Lower commodity prices weakened the Aussie Dollar, with a fall below $1.06 warning of a correction to the long-term (green) rising trendline. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum remains strong, however, and recovery above $1.08 would confirm a primary up-trend.

Aussie Dollar

Canada’s Loonie was helped by rising crude prices and recovery above $1.01 would confirm the primary advance to $1.06*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

March 7, 2012

ASX 200 breaks support

Australia’s ASX 200 index broke medium-term support at 4175/4180, warning of another test of primary support at 4000. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-Day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend. The broad band of support between 3800 and 4000 is likely to hold, but failure would signal a decline to 3500*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 3900 – ( 4300 – 3900 ) = 3500

March 3, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 Index

The ASX 200 Index is forming a bottom between 4000 and 4400 after breaching its descending trendline. Breakout above 4400 would signal the start of a new up-trend, but that may be some way off. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. For the present we continue in a narrow consolidation below 4300. Upward breakout would test 4400, while breach of the rising trendline would warn of another test of primary support at 4000.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800

March 1, 2012

Forex: Aussie Dollar, Canadian Loonie and South African Rand

The Aussie and Canadian Dollar mirror the CRB Commodities Index, testing resistance at their long-term highs. The Aussie encountered resistance at $1.08. Breakout would confirm a primary up-trend — already signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

Canada’s Loonie is similarly testing resistance at $1.01. Breakout would offer a target of $1.06*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The South African Rand is fairing slightly better, with the Aussie testing medium-term support at R8.00. Failure would warn of a correction to the long-term rising trendline at R7.50.

South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

February 27, 2012

ASX 200 resistance

Australia’s ASX 200 index is struggling to break medium-term resistance at 4300. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum continues to indicate a primary down-trend (breach of its rising trendline would strengthen the signal). Failure of support at 4180 would warn of another test of primary support at 4000.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4300 + ( 4300 – 4200 ) = 4400

February 23, 2012

Aussie Dollar and Canada’s Loonie encounter resistance

The Aussie Dollar is testing short-term support at $1.06, the lower peak at $1.08 warning of selling pressure. Breach of the secondary rising trendline (and support at $1.06) would warn of a correction to the long-term trendline around $1.02. Recovery above $1.08, however, would signal a fresh primary advance with a long-term target of $1.20*.

Australian Dollar/US Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

Canada’s Loonie continues to consolidate below $1.01 on the weekly chart, while 63-day Twiggs Momentum crossed to above zero, indicating a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would confirm, offering an initial target of $1.06*.

Canadian Dollar/US Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Both the Aussie and the Loonie are strongly influenced by commodity prices. If the CRB Commodities Index breaks resistance, expect both currencies to follow — though Canada will benefit more from higher oil prices.

February 21, 2012

Australia: ASX 200

The ASX 200 index respected its rising trendline on the weekly chart, indicating continuation of the advance to test 4400. Breakout above 4400 would indicate the start of a primary up-trend, while recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.

ASX 200 Index Weekly

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800

Bullish divergence on the daily chart shows medium-term buying pressure signaled by 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Breakout above 4300 would indicate a test of 4400.

ASX 200 Index

February 15, 2012

ASX 200 breaks support

The ASX 200 broke through support at 4220 on the hourly chart, signaling a correction to test primary support at 4040. Retracement to test the new resistance level is weak and follow-through below intra-day support at 4180 would confirm the signal.

Index