Australia & NZ Archives - Page 82 of 96

April 28, 2012

Abundance of land, shortage of housing | Institute of Economic Affairs

Kristian Niemietz looks at how housing costs in the UK have exploded in recent decades. Real-terms house prices in 2011 were more than two-and-a-half-times higher than in 1975, with rent levels following suit. In the USA, Germany and Switzerland, real-terms house prices are still close to their 1975 levels.

· Housing affordability measures show housing to be unaffordable in every single one of the 33 regions in the UK.

· The main difference between the UK and its north-western European neighbours is not in demographics, but in completion rates of new dwellings.

· Empirical evidence from around the world shows that planning restrictions are the key determinant of housing costs.

via Abundance of land, shortage of housing | Institute of Economic Affairs.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

April 26, 2012

Forex: Aussie Dollar and South African Rand

The Aussie Dollar encountered support at $1.03, evidenced by several long tails on the daily chart. Recovery above $1.045 would confirm that the correction has ended and would signal another advance to $1.08. Respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would confirm the advance.

Aussie Dollar/USD

The Aussie is declining against the South African Rand. Failure of support at R7.90/R8.00 would test the rising trendline around the R7.50 mark. Breach of the trendline and/or follow-through of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

Aussie Dollar/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 24, 2012

Basel takes aim at Mega Bank – MacroBusiness

Deep T: On the one side we have an Australian housing market which is close to the most unaffordable in the world with mortgage debt at 100% of GDP also close to the highest of any country, yet Mega Bank [the Big Four banks] calculates its minimum capital requirements at 1.6% on residential mortgages which undoubtedly would be close to the lowest of any bank in the world….. Surely, the result the Basel Committee assessment is a foregone conclusion?

Sadly, no. On the other side, however, we have an equally formidable opponent. Do not underestimate the politico-housing complex. The smoke screens will be built and a whitewash is on the cards. Australia has a history of painting a very rosy picture of our financial system and housing market in the face of significant known risk factors.

via Basel takes aim at Mega Bank – MacroBusiness.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 22, 2012

Warwick McKibbin on Australian interest rates and the fate of manufacturing

Professor Warwick McKibbin from ANU on the Australian economy, interest rates, the RBA and the fate of manufacturing:

Hat tip to Houses and Holes at Macrobusiness.com.au.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 22, 2012

Multiculturalism, segregation and the road to ruin

I just read an article about the joys of multiculturalism and how all Australians should strive to “show the world what a truly multicultural society could be.”

“Multiculturalism” is such a nice-sounding, inoffensive word that we may be forgiven for picking it up without really examining its implications. A multicultural society is also a fragmented society, divided along ethnic, religious, language or cultural lines and represents a breakdown in cohesion. Taken to its extreme, individual groups will claim the right to self-determination — another nice-sounding word, this time conjured up by spin doctors of South Africa’s apartheid era — a euphemism for promoting the interests of one group without consideration for the impact on others.

I find it ironic that Simon van der Stel, a Dutch governor of the Cape colony had in the early 18th century created a blueprint for a cohesive society. When Dutch settlers were swamped by French Protestants fleeing from persecution in Catholic France, he recognized the dangers of creating a fragmented society. His solution was to allocate farms in a checkerboard fashion, interspersing Huguenots among existing settlers, with the provision that all school lessons and official business be conducted in Dutch. Within a generation the two cultures had successfully integrated. Dutch remained the official language while the culture was enriched by a strong French influence still prevalent today, especially in the wine industry.

We need to similarly recognize the dangers of multiculturalism and strive for a truly integrated society with a unique Australian culture, tolerant of all religions and enriched by the infusion of many different cultures.

Segregation of schools on religious, ethnic or language lines encourages fragmentation of our society. The present state school system in Australia needs to be reformed after a healthy, open debate — in order to discourage segregation.

Australia’s strength in times of adversity has come from its unique culture. While that culture is evolving, and will continue to do so, we should ensure that it remains unified. Unity and openness are our strength.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 22, 2012

En Passant » Slip sliding away: a eulogy for Gillard Labor?

John Passant: There is the rotten stench wafting from the crypt of Parliament of a dying party bereft of principle whose raison d’etre is power for powers’ sake, not the betterment of the working class and the poor.

….The Slipper syndrome – power before principle, rule for the rich – highlights once again the bankruptcy of Labor and may be another heaving gasp on the way to the final death rattle of the ALP’s version of social democracy in Australia.

via En Passant » Slip sliding away: a eulogy for Gillard Labor?.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 21, 2012

Clarke and Dawe – Please Do Not Attempt This at Home

“Mr Constantine Vergence” discusses the carbon tax. Originally aired on ABC TV’s 7.30: 24/03/2011.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 21, 2012

Clarke and Dawe – How To Run a Country

Mr Oliver Gopoly, Australian banking executive. Originally aired on ABC TV’s The 7.30 Report: 4/11/2010:

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 21, 2012

Clarke and Dawe – Important new research reveals enterprise doomed from the start

Clark and Dawe draw parallels between the Australian parliamentary system and the Titanic:

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Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 19, 2012

Reserve Bank Governor greets Clarke and Dawe ~ ABC 7.30

Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, meets Clarke and Dawe and responds to criticism from union leader Paul Howes.

BRYAN DAWE: Mr Howes says the Reserve Bank has the wrong interest rate policy and fears for job in industry.

JOHN CLARKE: Does he? Does he say why?

BRYAN DAWE: He says the cost of Australian goods are too high.

JOHN CLARKE: Is the term “cost of labour” used at any point in his no-doubt-penetrating analysis of what the adults are thinking about in the other room?…..

via 7.30 – ABC.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.