Category: Australia & NZ

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A Hard Landing Down Under | The Big Picture

Andy Xie has a bearish outlook on China and believes 2013 could be a tough year for Australia:

The market went from not believing in China’s growth story a decade ago to extrapolating past performance into the infinite future……The year 2008 should have been the end of this boom cycle. China’s stimulus misled the market into believing otherwise…..The Australian economy is probably a bubble on top of China’s overinvestment bubble. The latter’s unwinding will sooner or later trigger the former to do so, too…..

via A Hard Landing Down Under | The Big Picture.

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Australia: ASX 200 trend channel

The ASX 200 failed to hold on to early gains Monday. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect a test of the lower trend channel. Weakness in US or Asian markets could cause a breach of the 4400 support level, indicating a correction to 4000. Respect of support, however, would indicate a healthy up-trend — and an advance to 4900*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4450 + ( 4450 – 4000 ) = 4900

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Australia's cultural revolution

Benjamin Herscovitch writes:

“Any genuine liberal democracy will be multicultural: a commitment to liberal rights and freedoms is counterfeit unless it comes with a commitment to cultural diversity. Beyond a corruption of liberalism, the idea of a monolinguistic and monocultural Australia is only plausible if we deny who we are. Australia is Chinese, Indian and Vietnamese just as it is Irish, English and Italian. Multiculturalism is not a collective aspiration; it is not a policy that can be terminated. It is unapologetically an Australian reality.”

Be careful not to throw the baby out with the bath water. Australia’s strength lies in its core values, many of which stem from its Anglo-Celtic past. One of those strengths is an open society that has successfully integrated successive waves of immigrants into mainstream Australian culture. Our culture has been enriched by the experience.

A unified society requires a cohesive set of values to which everyone subscribes — no matter their ethnic background, language or religion. We should celebrate our ethnic and cultural diversity but not use multiculturalism as an excuse for failing to properly assimilate some minorities. We need to be tolerant of diversity but intolerant of anything that conflicts with our core values of fairness and tolerance. To act otherwise would be simply un-Australian.

A cultural revolution to celebrate | The Centre for Independent Studies.

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The real solution to poverty: JOBS | CIS

By Andrew Baker and Peter Saunders:

There are two ways to reduce “poverty”: increase the value of welfare benefits faster than the value of wages, or move substantial numbers of people off welfare and into full-time jobs. Anti-poverty campaigners invariably emphasise the first option and neglect the second, but the first actually undermines the second……

The real solution to poverty: J-O-B-S, J-O-B-S, J-O-B-S | The Centre for Independent Studies.

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Australia: Household debt crisis

A few days ago I mentioned that Australia is in a housing bubble. The easiest way to gauge this is to compare Australian household debt/disposable income (DPI) to the US peak before the global financial crisis. After all, household debt is the fuel for a housing bubble.

Housing Finances

Australia’s current ratio of 150% (or 1.5 times DPI) is higher than the US peak of 1.3 times DPI during the housing bubble. And far higher than the current US ratio of 1.1 times DPI.

Credit Growth by Sector

No time to be complacent.

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Australia: RBA running out of options

The Reserve Bank of Australia must be viewing the end of the mining boom with some trepidation. Cutting interest rates to stimulate new home construction may cushion the impact, but comes at a price. Consumers may benefit from lower interest rates but that is merely a side-effect: the real objective of monetary policy is debt expansion. And Australia is already in a precarious position.

Further increases in the ratio of household debt to disposable income would expand the housing bubble — with inevitable long-term consequences.

Housing Finances

While debt expansion is not in the country’s interests, neither is debt contraction (with growth below zero), which would risk a deflationary spiral. The RBA needs to maintain debt growth below the nominal growth rate in GDP — forecast at 4.0% for 2012-13 and 5.5% for 2013-2014 according to MYEFO — to gradually restore household debt/income ratios to respectable levels.

Credit Growth by Sector

If the RBA’s hands are tied, similar restraint has to be applied to fiscal policy. First home buyer incentives would also re-ignite debt growth. The focus may have to shift to state and local government  in order to accelerate land release and reduce other impediments — both financial and regulatory — to new home development. Lowering residential property development costs while increasing competition would encourage developers to cut prices to attract more buyers into the market. While this would still increase demand for new home finance, lower prices would cool speculative demand fueled by low interest rates.

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Forex: Aussie Dollar, Euro, Pound Sterling and Canada's Loonie

The Aussie Dollar (daily chart) is headed for another test of resistance at $1.04 against the greenback. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.04 would offer a target of $1.06*.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.04 + ( 1.04 – 1.02 ) = 1.06

The Euro (weekly chart) is testing resistance at $1.32. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.32 — and penetration of the descending trendline — would confirm, offering an immediate target of the 2012 high at $1.35.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.28 ) = 1.36

Pound Sterling (weekly) rallied off primary support at €1.225/€1.23 against the euro. Breach would complete a head and shoulders reversal with a target of $1.18*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests a primary down-trend. Expect a test of resistance at $1.26 followed by another attempt at primary support.

Pound Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.23 – ( 1.28 – 1.23 ) = 1.18

Canada’s Loonie (daily) is consolidating between $1.00 and $1.01 (USD).  Downward breakout — and penetration of the rising trendline — would warn of another test of primary support at $0.96. But 63-day Twiggs Momentum is bullish and a trough above zero would suggest an advance to the 2011 highs at $1.06.

Canadian Loonie/Aussie Dollar

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Australia: ASX 200 test of 4400

The ASX 200 is retracing to test support at 4400/4450. Respect would confirm a primary advance to 4900*. But correction in US markets is likely and would cause a breach of the ASX 200 rising trendline. Respect of 4250, however, would still indicate a healthy up-trend — as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4450 + ( 4450 – 4000 ) = 4900

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Australia: Submarine folly

The Australian government is poised to commit to building 12 new diesel submarines at a cost of $40 billion without even considering the option of more efficient, more powerful, nuclear-powered alternatives.

Simon Cowan, author of Future Submarine Project Should Raise Periscope for Another Look, released today by The Centre for Independent Studies, says the government risks repeating the mistakes of the current Collins Class submarines, with high running costs and reliability issues.

“Australia needs world-class submarines and the US Virginia Class looks like the best option.”

“Nuclear-powered submarines are superior in almost every way to diesel-powered submarines – they can travel further, faster and stay deployed for longer, and they have more powerful weapons, systems and sensors.”

“However, the government has refused to consider nuclear-powered submarines for reasons that don’t stack up.”

“Safety considerations are important when talking about nuclear power,” Cowan notes, “but the safety record of the US Virginia Class is flawless. These subs don’t carry nuclear weapons and never need refuelling – and if Australia leases them from the United States, the US could dispose of spent nuclear material.”

“Australia could also save more than $10 billion by leasing eight Virginia Class submarines and up to $750 million a year on operational and maintenance costs as well.”

via Axe dud subs and look to nuclear option, says new CIS report.

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Australia: Becoming a welfare-dependent state

Extract from an opinion by Robert Carling:

In democratic welfare states, the proportion of the electorate that attracts more in social benefits from government than it pays in tax has become so large that candidates who promise to curb the welfare state have a hard time winning elections.

The same issue has been raised in the United Kingdom, where a recent study by the Centre for Policy Studies revealed that 53.4% of households receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes……

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has compiled data on total taxes paid [including GST] and total social benefits (cash and in kind) received by households in 2009–10 classified into five slices (quintiles) from bottom to top according to their private income. The first three quintiles (that is, 60% of households) each received more in direct social benefits than they paid in taxes……

via Centre for Independent Studies: Self-sustaining leviathan.

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