Australia: Did APRA assume a bailout in its stress test?

Houses and Holes at Macrobusiness.com.au makes an important point regarding the Australian mortgage insurance sector towards the end of this article:

Stress Test

John Laker, head of APRA, is out today with a speech in which he announced the results of a recent APRA stress test of Australian banks. Here is the scenario and the results:

The ‘what if’ scenario was built around a further deterioration of global economic conditions, with a disorderly resolution of the fiscal problems in Europe triggering a dislocation in global debt markets and a sharp downturn in the North Atlantic economies. China is assumed to be unable to fully offset the decline in its exports with domestic spending and, as a result, the rate of growth of the Chinese economy slows sharply. The implied reduction in Chinese demand for minerals lowers commodity prices significantly, with a consequent deterioration in the exchange rate for the Australian dollar. Domestically, households and businesses respond to the external shock by reducing consumption and investment expenditure. As a result, GDP falls and unemployment rises substantially, which feeds back into rising defaults and sharp falls in house prices and commercial property prices.

In this scenario, the key macroeconomic parameters for Australia used as the basis for the stress test were:

  • a sharp (5 per cent) contraction in real GDP in the first year;
  • a rapid rise in the unemployment rate to a peak of 12 per cent;
  • a peak-to-trough fall in house prices of 35 per cent; and
  • a fall in commercial property prices of 40 per cent.

This is a tougher stress test than the one APRA undertook in 2010. The projected economic contraction is deeper and more prolonged, with a weaker recovery and a longer period before return to growth. The rise in unemployment is higher and the impact on the housing market therefore more pronounced; there is a greater peak-to-trough fall in house prices. This time, the stress test also addressed liquidity consequences. The dislocation in global debt markets results in the largest banks being unable to access global funding markets for six months. The consequence is more intense competition for deposit funding and an increase in funding costs, weighing on lending margins and acting as a drag on revenues.

Remember, this is a hypothetical. It is in no way a forecast or a central expectation for the course of the Australian economy. Rather, the stress test was intended to test the boundaries of ‘severe but plausible’, especially given the current relatively strong position of the Australian economy. Benchmarked against recent industry-wide stress tests in other countries, the severity is confirmed by the fact that the GDP shock is more than four standard deviations based on the annual volatility of GDP in Australia since 1960; the shock was one-to-three standard deviations in other major tests. As a test of plausibility, the macroeconomic scenario would be comparable with the actual experience of the United Kingdom, United States and some European countries during the global financial crisis.

Although the macroeconomic scenario was tougher than in the 2010 exercise, the actual mechanics of the stress test were largely the same. The advanced banks were asked to apply the macroeconomic scenario in their own models and provide their assessment, in quite granular detail, of the impact on the ratings migration of assets, default behaviour, profitability and capital. After analysing this information, APRA then determined a common set of portfolio-specific risk measures that were applied to the banks’ loan portfolios.

Reflecting the severity of the scenario, the advanced banks all reported significant losses, driven by much higher bad debt expenses. Credit loss rates in aggregate were comparable with the experience in the early 1990s, although not quite as high as the peaks then reached. As expected, total losses were larger than in the 2010 exercise.

Despite the deterioration in labour market conditions and the projected stress on the housing market, residential mortgages, which account for nearly half of the advanced banks’ credit exposures, contributed only a fifth of total losses. The mortgage portfolio alone was not the principal driver of losses, a reflection of the structure of the domestic mortgage market as well as the general tightening in lending standards following the crisis. Losses were realised across a range of loan portfolios, particularly corporate, SME and commercial property portfolios. Losses on these business portfolios were more front loaded, materialising earlier in the scenario than losses on residential mortgage portfolios, which tended to lag the increase in unemployment.

The main results of the stress test for the five advanced banks, taken as a group, are as follows:

  • none of the banks would have failed under the downturn macroecnomic scenario;
  • none of the banks would have breached the four per cent minimum Tier 1 capital requirement of the Basel II Framework in any year of the stress test;
  • and the weighted average reduction in Tier 1 capital ratios over the three-year stress period was 3.8 percentage points.

This is a very positive result. It reflects the efforts of the advanced banks to strengthen their Tier 1 capital positions since the crisis began through ordinary equity issues and profit retention. It leaves these banks well positioned to transition to the new Basel III capital regime.

Well…bonza! But just one question. What did the stress test assume about the Lenders Mortgage Insurance sector (LMIs)? They are those hapless gents sitting on wafer thin capital buffers but carrying the risk of all the banks’ riskiest mortgages.

If the APRA stress test assumed a smooth and uninterrupted flow of payouts for losses from the LMIs to the banks then it also assumed their defacto nationalisation. In reality, under extreme stress, there is a very serious risk is that the LMIs will be wiped out and their relationships with the banks will descend into legal chaos as the two parties aim to survive at the cost of one another. You may recall that the biggest losers on Wall St in the GFC were insurers (think AIG), not banks.

In short, in the kind of scenario painted by APRA, it is quite possible that the government would have to step in and the post-nationalised LMIs would continue to pump a river of public cash into the banks via a backdoor bailout (ala AIG in the US).

So, if we are to take this excellent stress test result seriously, we really need to know what APRA assumed about the LMIs. Hmm?

Reproduced with thanks to Houses and Holes at Macrobusiness.com.au

Australia: ASX 200 tests support

The ASX 200 is testing its new support level at 4400/4450. Reversal below 4400 would warn of a test of primary support at 4000. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, however, would indicate strong buying pressure. Respect of support and follow-through above 4600 would signal an advance to 4900*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4450 + ( 4450 – 4000 ) = 4900

Australia: Hard or soft landing?

Browsing the latest charts from the RBA.

Despite record low 10-year bond yields…..

Housing Finances

Credit growth is subdued and likely to remain so for some time.

Credit Growth by Sector

After a massive credit bubble lasting more than a decade.

Housing Finances

Households are saving close to 10 percent of Disposable Income in anticipation of a contraction.

Housing Finances

While banks are reluctant to lend when their margins are being squeezed.

Housing Finances

Borrowing offshore is not an option. That is how we got into such a fix in the first place.

Housing Finances

Makes me believe we are unlikely to see another housing boom for some time.

There are two possible outcomes: a soft landing and a hard landing.

It all depends on whether Wayne Swan and the RBA know their jobs.

Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling, Australian Dollar and Canadian Loonie

The Euro is testing support at $1.28. Breakout would respect the primary down-trend, warning of another test of primary support at the 2010 low at $1.19/1.20. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal. Recovery above $1.32 is less likely but would indicate an advance to $1.35/$1.36*.

Euro/USD

Pound Sterling rallied off support at €1.225 against the Euro. Breakout above €1.26 would indicate an advance to €1.29. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero — and respect of the rising trendline — would both indicate a healthy up-trend. Breach of support at €1.225, however, would signal a primary down-trend.

Pound Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.26 + ( 1.26 – 1.23 ) = 1.29

Canada’s Loonie is testing support at parity against the greenback. Respect would indicate an advance to $1.06*. Breach of resistance at $1.03 would strengthen the signal and a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would confirm. Failure of support, however, would warn of another test of primary support at $0.96.

Canadian Loonie/Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.03 + ( 1.03 – 1.00 ) = 1.06

The Aussie Dollar broke resistance at $1.04 after the RBA announced that it would not cut interest rates, leaving them on hold until December. Expect an advance to $1.06*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating above zero suggests a primary up-trend.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.04 + ( 1.04 – 1.02 ) = 1.06

Australian court finds S&P liable for ratings opinion | Bloomberg

An Australian judge has found S&P [MHP] liable for its opinion in assigning AAA ratings to two ABN Amro structured debt issues in 2006, which lost over 90% of value during the GFC — the first time a ratings agency has been held liable for such an opinion.

S&P was “misleading and deceptive” in its rating of two structured debt issues in 2006, Federal Court Justice Jayne Jagot said in her ruling released today in Sydney.

via McGraw-Hill Plummets After Australian Court Ruling – Bloomberg.

Australia: Falling job ads

ANZ job ads fell 4.6 percent in October after a 3.9 percent fall in September. The index is down 15 percent over the last year.

From ANZ:

“The ANZ job advertisement series measures the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and Internet sites covering the capital cities each month. It has historically proved to be a very good indicator of future labour market conditions and thus, is extensively relied upon for forecasting employment growth.”

Australia: Terms of trade down 4.2%

Westpac reports Australia’s terms of trade (for goods) weakened for the fourth consecutive quarter, down 4.2% in Q3 and 14.7% over the last four quarters.

Global QE

Observation made by Philip Lowe, RBA Deputy Governor:

Since mid 2008, four of the world’s major central banks – the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England – have all expanded their balance sheets very significantly, and further increases have been announced in a couple of cases. In total, the assets of these four central banks have already increased by the equivalent of around $US5 trillion, or around 15 per cent of the combined GDP of the relevant economies. We have not seen this type of planned simultaneous very large expansion of central bank balance sheets before. So in that sense, it is very unusual, and its implications are not yet fully understood……

via RBA: Australia and the World.

Chinese TV Host Says Regime Nearly Bankrupt | Epoch Times

A sobering assessment of China’s economy reported by Matthew Robertson:

Larry Lang, chair professor of Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said in a lecture that he didn’t think was being recorded that the Chinese regime is in a serious economic crisis — on the brink of bankruptcy.

The youtube audio requires translation:

http://youtu.be/comHcv7qSBg

Robertson summarizes Lang’s assessment into five key points:

  1. The regime’s debt sits at about 36 trillion yuan (US$5.68 trillion).
  2. The real inflation rate is 16 percent, not 6.2 percent as claimed.
  3. There is serious excess capacity in the economy, and private consumption is only 30 percent of economic activity.
  4. Published GDP of 9 percent is also fabricated. According to Lang, GDP has contracted 10 percent.
  5. Taxes are too high. Last year, direct and indirect taxes on businesses amounted to 70 percent of earnings…..

via Chinese TV Host Says Regime Nearly Bankrupt | Business & Economy | China | Epoch Times.

Australia: Stocks may be fully priced

Christopher Joye from the AFR suggests that Australia’s sharemarket may be “fully priced”:

New analysis from UBS poses an interesting puzzle: we have yet to see ASX earnings per share recover to pre-crisis levels. Top-rated UBS strategists Matthew Johnson and Andrew Lilley find that “aggregate equity market data shows declining earnings and weakening corporate balance sheets” in 2012…..

via Sting in inflation surprise.