Author: Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
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Local government: the Lakewood model

In his report for the Urban Taskforce Australia, Professor Percy Allan recommends that local government adopt the Lakewood model of contracting in services. Lakewood was a sleepy California town threatened with being engulfed by urban sprawl — until they found a novel way of managing costs and improving services.

Lakewood of the early 1950s was David fighting the Goliath of Long Beach, a city intent on gobbling up its unincorporated neighbour parcel by parcel. The legal turf battles were exhausting Lakewood’s defenders, most of whom were transplants drawn to the promise of this sleepy village-turned-post-war boomtown. Then along came John Sanford Todd, a struggling attorney and proud Lakewood resident, who dreamed up a way to preserve his community’s independence without it going broke: It would become a new kind of city, one that contracted out for police protection, trash collection, fire fighting – just about every service a city provides.

That practice is commonplace in the USA today, but it was a revelation a half century ago. Todd’s vision, dubbed “the Lakewood Plan,” became a model of local government that informed incorporation drives throughout Southern California and beyond. Suburbia took shape in a rash of “contract cities,” including the neighbouring Dairy Valley (now Cerritos), La Puente, Bellflower, Duarte, Irwindale, Norwalk and Santa Fe Springs, which sprang up in such rapid succession that some observers began proclaiming the end of big cities.

There may even be opportunities to extend this model to metropolitan or state level, where states contract in and share the costs of centralized services provided by specialist corporations. This could apply to areas as diverse as road transport, police services and payroll functions.

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Australia: Sydney is reaching a liveability crisis

Professor Percy Allan kindly sent me a copy a report, to which he contributed, on living conditions in Sydney — prepared by the Urban Taskforce. Here are some interesting excerpts:

Over the next 20 years Sydney will need at least 600,000 new homes located in infill sites and in greenfield sites on the fringes of the metropolitan area. But Sydney has not built sufficient homes over recent years with its current production only half that of Victoria on a per capita basis. Already the average house cost in Sydney is one of the highest in the world and this is impacting on affordability for many families. The Sydney median house is $100,000 more expensive than the equivalent in Melbourne. The average weekly earnings of a first homebuyer can afford a mortgage of $331,000 while the average house price in Sydney is $563,300. The lack of housing supply has led to an increase in rents by 40% over the last 5 years…….

Conclusion

Local government has aggravated Sydney’s housing crisis by:
• Not rezoning sufficient land for affordable multiple dwellings,
• Not adopting clear consistent plans and regulations to guide permissible development,
• Not ensuring individual development assessments are independent of political and vested interests,
• Not spending enough on capital works thereby creating a large backlog of unsatisfactory community infrastructure,
• Using depreciation provisions and reserves for non-capital purposes,
• Under-borrowing for infrastructure enhancements thereby forcing new homebuyers to contribute disproportionately towards this end,
• Not sharing the cost of greenfield infrastructure with existing communities that inherited free public assets from previous generations, and
• Not sharing or outsourcing activities that would benefit from economies of scale and scope nor focusing on specific place management to better respond to community needs at a street level.

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Quote: Margaret Thatcher

Watch your thoughts for they become words.
Watch your words for they become actions.
Watch your actions for they become habits.
Watch your habits for they become your character.
And watch your character for it becomes your destiny.
What we think, we become.
My father always said that… and I think I am fine.”
~ Margaret Thatcher

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ASX and Asia fall

The ASX 200 retreated more than 2.0% Monday after the Cyprus deposit grab unsettled financial markets. Expect another test of support at 4980. Breakout would warn of a correction, while recovery above 5150 would signal an advance to 5500*. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4500 ) = 5500

Dow Jones Japan Index dropped about 1.5%. Follow through below short-term support would indicate no more than retracement to the rising trendline.
Dow Jones Japan Index
Dow Jones Hong Kong Index has fallen about 2.0% so far. Breach of support at 472 signals a correction.
Dow Jones Hong Kong Index
Dow Jones Singapore Index has fallen 1.0% in the morning and we can expect further weakness in the p.m.
Dow Jones Singapore Index

European markets are likely to open lower. If the US follows and finishes the day with a weak close, negative sentiment could start to feed on itself, tipping global markets into a correction. Overall, the primary trend in the US and Australia remains positive.

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J.P. Morgan, Goldman Get a Dose of Fed's Reserve | WSJ.com

David Reilly reports on the Fed’s latest stress tests:

The passes show how far big U.S. banks have come since the financial crisis. But capital levels seen under the tests, and taking into account the capital-return plans, weren’t especially strong. Tier 1 common ratios for J.P. Morgan and Goldman, for example, were only marginally above the 5% minimum needed.

What’s more, leverage ratios including capital returns are particularly thin: Of the six biggest banks, four had ratios below 5%. While above the test’s 3% minimum, such levels wouldn’t give banks tremendous room to maneuver in a crisis.

The leverage ratios are particularly telling because they don’t allow for risk-weighting of assets. That approach is coming under increased criticism for potentially allowing banks to mask the true level of risk on their books.

Read more at HEARD ON THE STREET: J.P. Morgan, Goldman Get a Dose of Fed's Reserve – WSJ.com.

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ZERVOS: 'This Is A Nuclear War On Savings And Wealth' – Business Insider

Joe Weisenthal reports on Jefferies strategist David Zervos’ latest note:

What happened to Cyprus on Friday evening was one of the most significant developments in the Eurozone since the Greek election last summer. To tax the bank deposits of savers sends an ominous message to the entire global investment community. All of us should really take a moment to consider what the governments of Europe have done. To be clear, they initiated a surprise assault on the precautionary savings of their own people. Such a move should send shock waves across the entire population of the developed world.

Read more at ZERVOS: 'This Is A Nuclear War On Savings And Wealth' – Business Insider.

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Drug-resistant bacteria and lack of new antibiotics pose ‘catastrophic threat’ | Nature News

Daniel Cressey writes:

The danger of antibiotic-resistant bacteria should be placed alongside pandemic influenza and terrorism on the UK government’s list of threats to national security, the country’s most senior medic has advised. Sally Davies, the UK chief medical officer, warned that antimicrobial resistance “poses a catastrophic threat” and that international action to combat this problem is needed now. Davies, speaking as she launched a report on the problem compiled by some of the country’s leading doctors and academics, called for more research into new antibiotics and better surveillance of the these bugs, incorporating more genomic testing to increase scientists’ understanding of emerging resistance.

Read more at Drug-resistant bacteria and lack of new antibiotics pose ‘catastrophic threat’ : Nature News Blog.

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The fire next door: Mexico's war on drugs

Since the Mexican government initiated a military offensive against its country’s powerful drug cartels in December 2006, some 50,000 people have perished and the drugs continue to flow. The growing violence has created concerns that Mexico could become a failed state, and U.S. political leaders also worry that the corruption and violence is seeping across the border into the United States.

In his compelling new book, Ted Galen Carpenter details the growing horror overtaking Mexico and explains how the current U.S.-backed strategies for trying to stem Mexico’s drug violence have been a disaster. Boldly conveyed in The Fire Next Door, the only effective strategy is to defund the Mexican drug cartels by abandoning the failed drug prohibition policy, thereby eliminating the lucrative black-market premium and greatly reducing the financial resources of the drug cartels.

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NGDP level targeting – the true Free Market alternative (we try again) | The Market Monetarist

Scott Sumner suggests that NGDP targeting is a far more conservative approach than the current inflation targeting practiced by the Fed and many other central banks:

Most of the blogging Market Monetarists have their roots in a strong free market tradition and nearly all of us would probably describe ourselves as libertarians or classical liberal economists who believe that economic allocation is best left to market forces. Therefore most of us would also tend to agree with general free market positions regarding for example trade restrictions or minimum wages and generally consider government intervention in the economy as harmful.

I think that NGDP targeting is totally consistent with these general free market positions – in fact I believe that NGDP targeting is the monetary policy regime which best ensures well-functioning and undistorted free markets.

And here explains why inflation is not a threat under NGDP targeting:

Inflation will be higher under NGDP targeting. This is obviously wrong. Over the long-run the central bank can choose whatever inflation rate it wants. If the central bank wants 2% inflation as long-term target then it will choose an NGDP growth path, which is compatible which this. If the long-term growth rate of real GDP is 2% then the central bank should target 4% NGDP growth path. This will ensure 2% inflation in the long run.

Read more at NGDP level targeting – the true Free Market alternative (we try again) | The Market Monetarist.

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Fed's Fisher: Too-big-to-fail banks are crony capitalists | Reuters

Pedro Nicolaci da Costa reports

The largest U.S. banks are “practitioners of crony capitalism,” need to be broken up to ensure they are no longer considered too big to fail, and continue to threaten financial stability, a top Federal Reserve official said on Saturday……

[Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed] said the existence of banks that are seen as likely to receive government bailouts if they fail gives them an unfair advantage, hurting economic competitiveness.

Read more at Fed's Fisher: Too-big-to-fail banks are crony capitalists | Reuters.

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