Yesterday’s solid blue candle on the gold chart [XAUUSD] confirms my view of the precious metal as a form of “Trump insurance”. After Trump and North Korea exchanged threats suggesting nuclear retaliation, gold gained 1.32%, breaking resistance at $1275/ounce. Follow-through above $1300 would signal a primary advance, with a target of $1400*.
* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1400
From the BBC:
US President Donald Trump says North Korea “will be met with fire and fury” if it threatens the US.
His comments came after a Washington Post report, citing US intelligence officials, said Pyongyang had produced a nuclear warhead small enough to fit inside its missiles.
This would mean the North is developing nuclear weapons capable of striking the US at a much faster rate than expected.
The UN recently approved further economic sanctions against the country.
The Security Council unanimously agreed to ban North Korean exports and limit investments, prompting fury from North Korea and a vow to make the “US pay a price”.
The heated rhetoric between the two leaders intensified after Pyongyang tested two intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) in July, claiming it now had the ability to hit the US.
Mr Trump told reporters on Tuesday: “North Korea best not make any more threats to the US. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
2 Replies to “Gold as ‘Trump insurance’”
This is The Bubble …. it’s going to burst, badly.
1. The US $ is temporarily weak, and will resume an uptrend later = economic growth there strengthens all the time, demand for equities is strong, as it is for American bonds.
2. Inflation is subdued, stubborn and falling – expectations should – rationally – be for the *deflating* inflation trend to continue = innovation increases productivity, and hence reduces costs. Downward pressure on the oil price will aid this *deflation* process.
3.Interest rates will rise later in the States = increased holding costs / opportunity costs for Gold = downward pressure on it.
4. Your lower indicator is good on this one …. and it’s in the top area, rather than the bottom = * Feed the ducks while they are quacking *
Gold should be nearer $1,000, in the above environment = the political/geographic stimuli currently underway can’t support Gold without the above economic influences.
All very rational arguments, but then you’re arguing with ‘the tape’ which may just ignore them as it so often does.
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