A longer-term view, with weekly charts, shows stocks and gold in a healthy bull market. The energy sector is bearish, indicating low short- to medium-term inflation, as are industrial metals.
Stocks
The S&P 500 closed above 6100, signaling a fresh advance. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but respect will likely confirm a target of 6400.
Mega-cap technology stocks are the primary driver, with large caps lagging. Lower Trend Index peaks on the S&P 500 equal-weighted index ($IQX) warn of selling pressure, and another test of primary support at 7000 is likely.
Financial Markets
Bitcoin consolidates above 90K, indicating stable liquidity in financial markets.
Treasury Markets
The 10-year Treasury yield signals another test of support at 4.4%. Respect is more likely, and another test of 4.8% would be bearish for stocks.
Dollar & Gold
The Dollar Index has weakened in the last two weeks as the Trump administration threatens to disrupt the global trading system with increased tariffs. Respect of support at 106 remains likely, but a breach would offer a target of 102.
Gold is in a strong uptrend. The current retracement will likely respect support at $2,800 per ounce, confirming our target of $3,000.
Energy
Crude is in a bear market, with Nymex WTI crude respecting resistance at $80 per barrel. We expect crude to remain range-bound for most of the year.
We are long-term bulls on uranium, but there are no buy opportunities. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF) confirmed the bear market, breaking support at 16 to signal another decline.
Copper
Copper rallied strongly over the last two weeks, testing resistance near 10K. However, the move is not driven by an increase in end-user demand. From Mining.com:
Worries that US President Donald Trump may impose tariffs on copper had spurred traders and investors to buy copper on the US COMEX exchange and sell on the LME.
Short or bearish positions on the LME are being cut or rolled over ahead of settlement on Wednesday, turning discounts for nearby copper contracts against those further along the maturity into premiums or backwardations.
Iron & Steel
Iron ore continues its gradual downtrend.
Australia
The ASX 200 recovered above resistance at 8500, confirming a medium-term target of 8900.
Conclusion
US and Australian stocks are in an uptrend, supported by strong liquidity in financial markets. However, the Trump administration’s trade policies have unsettled markets, making them susceptible to higher-than-normal volatility.
Bonds are in a bear market, and the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to resume its uptrend.
Gold continues in a strong uptrend, with demand driven by geopolitical changes. Respect of support at $2,800 per ounce would confirm our short-term target of $3,000.
Industrial metals remain in a bear market due to weak demand from China.