Australian jobs grew by a surprising 50.2K, compared to consensus estimates of 20K, with total employment reaching 14.4 million.
But employment per capita remains steady at 64% because of the huge swell in immigration.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, while trend remained steady at 4.0%, as the participation rate grew.
Total hours worked increased to 1.97 billion, a 1.3% increase in the trend since June 2023.
Average hours worked (trend) declined to 136.6 hours in June, from 138.6 hours 12 months ago, reflecting slowing demand growth.
Conclusion
Westpac believe that the strong June labor report points to a soft landing ahead. We are more skeptical. Soft landings are often promised and seldom materialize.
China has reported deflation for the fifth quarter in a row. When your biggest trading partner suffers from deflation, it generally is bad news for you as well.
Acknowledgements
- ABS: Labour Force, Australia
- Ryan Wells, Westpac: June Labour Force: ‘soft’ landing in sight
- Adem Tumerkan: China Deflation Chart