Brent crude broke resistance at $84, signaling a fresh advance. Expect retracement to test the new support level but respect is likely and would confirm our target of $94 per barrel.
Nymex light crude similarly broke resistance at $80, offering a target of $90 per barrel.
The threaten upsurge in inflation spooked bond investors, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking resistance at 4.20%.
We expect a test of resistance at our target of 4.35%.
The Dollar Index jumped above resistance at 103 in response.
Gold retreated to test support at $2150 per ounce. Narrow consolidation is a bullish sign and follow-through above $2200 would confirm our target of $2400 per ounce. Breach of $2150 is less likely but would indicate a test of $2075.
The S&P 500 eased in response to higher long-term bond yields. Lower Trend Index peaks warn of a correction. Breach of support at 5100 would confirm.
The Russell 2000 small caps ETF (IWM) reacted with greater alarm, testing support at 200. Lower Trend Index peaks again warn of a correction and breach of support at 200 would confirm, offering a short-term target of 190.
Conclusion
An upward spike in crude oil threatens higher inflation which in turn would be likely to delay rate cuts by the Fed, causing long-term interest rates to rise.
We are short-term bullish on Crude and Gold; bearish on Stocks and long-duration Bonds.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.