The Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business released their Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment for September 2019, recording its 16th straight month of decline.
Hat tip to Macrobusiness, this is a peach of an indicator, predicting Australia’s economic performance.
I have added % retracement in the ASX 200 to the graph below. Each of the significant past troughs in the Leading Index coincides with a drawdown of more than 20% in the ASX 200.
Is the current fall in the Leading Index a false alarm, as in the 2005/2006 raging commodities bull market, or are we in for another retracement?
My money is on the retracement.