Tag: Twiggs Money Flow

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US rally encounters resistance

Dow Jones Industrial Average tall shadow (or wick) on the latest candlestick [R] indicates rising selling pressure. With excitement about a European bailout deal fading, expect a test of support at 10600. Failure would indicate another down-swing, with a target of 10000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

S&P 500 Index shows continued consolidation between 1120 and 1220 on the weekly chart. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Failure of support at 1120 would test the 2010 low at 1020*/1000.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1120 – ( 1220 – 1120 ) = 1020

NASDAQ 100 Index shows an evening star reversal warning, completed if price reverses below 2200. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero reminds that we are in a primary down-trend. Breach of the lower trend channel would warn of another down-swing, with a target of 1750*.

NASDAQ 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2050 – ( 2350 – 2050 ) = 1750

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Canada: TSX 60

The weekly TSX 60 chart respected resistance at 730 and is retreating to test support at 650/660. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of further selling pressure. Failure of support would offer a target of 590*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 660 – ( 730 – 660 ) = 590

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Europe consolidates

Dow Jones Europe Index ($E1DOW) recovered above 230 and is expected to consolidate between 230 and 250. The bear market remains strong, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicating selling pressure. Reversal below 230 would test the 2010 low of 205, though the calculated target is lower*.

Dow Jones Europe Index $E1DOW

* Target calculation: 230 – ( 265 – 230 ) = 195

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DAX breaks support

Dow Jones Germany Index broke support at 210/205 Monday, warning of another sharp fall as the ECB ramps up bond purchases and German participation in the bailout program is challenged in their High Court. Plunging 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong selling pressure. Target for the fall is the 2009 low of 150*.

DJ Germany Index

* Target calculation: 200 – ( 250 – 200 ) = 150

The DAX Index similarly broke support at 5500, offering a target of 4500*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 5500 – ( 6500 – 5500 ) = 4500

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Shanghai confirms bear market

Dow Jones Shanghai Index breached support at 320, confirming the earlier signal at failure of 330. Reversal of  13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of rising selling pressure.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 330 – ( 390 – 330 ) = 270

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European rally meets resistance

The FTSE 100 index is meeting selling pressure in its rally to test resistance at 5600, evidenced by tall shadows on the last two candles. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the signal. Failure of support at 4800 would offer a target of 4000*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 4800 – ( 5600 – 4800 ) = 4000

The DAX Index also displays tall shadows on the last two weekly candles. The rally to test 6400 is particularly weak, with decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warning of strong selling pressure. Reversal below 5400 would offer a target of 4400*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 5400 – ( 6400 – 5400 ) = 4400

The CAC-40 displays similar selling pressure. Breakout below 2900 would offer a target of 2500*.

CAC-40 Index

* Target calculation: 2900 – ( 3300 – 2900 ) = 2500

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Reminder: we’re in a bear market

Don’t be fooled by current month-end froth in the markets — into thinking that the bear market is over or that the early August plunge was a false signal. The S&P 500 Index has made little headway after completing a double bottom at 1200 despite average volumes indicating the absence of strong selling. 63-Day Momentum peaking below the zero line indicates a primary down-trend. Expect the bear rally to test resistance at 1250/1260 before a retreat to 1100. Breach of 1100 would find support at the 2010 low of 1000, but the calculated target is even lower*.

S&P500 Index

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1250 – 1100 ) = 950

The Nasdaq 100 performed better, clearing 2200 to complete a double bottom with a target of 2350*. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. But this is a bear rally in the middle of a bear market, and further falls on the Dow/S&P 500 would drag the Nasdaq lower.

Nasdaq100 Index

* Target calculation: 2200 + ( 2200 – 2050 ) = 2350

Fedex and UPS remain in a primary down-trend, indicating that economic activity levels remain poor.

Fedex and UPS

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NZ bucks trend

New Zealand is one of the few markets that is bucking the trend — its agriculture-based economy fairly insulated from the global down-turn. ENZL, the MSCI New Zealand ETF, recovered above its former primary support level at 31.50 after strong bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. While technically still a bear market, retracement that respects the new support level of 31.50 would confirm a test of 34.

iShares MSCI New Zealand Investable Market Index Fund (ENZL)

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