US Stock Market
The composite valuation indicator uses the secondary axis on the right.
US Bull-Bear
We have revised the bull-bear market leading indicator to improve its responsiveness, stripping it down to a composite of five key indicators. At present, two of the five indicators signal risk-off, indicating medium risk of a US bear market.
The 10-year/3-month Treasury yield spread has been positive for more than 120 days, and the S&P 500 is above its 12-month weighted moving average, confirming the risk-on signal.
The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh's tight-lipped approach to guidance will likely fuel greater bond market volatility, and drive up long-term yields. A steeper yield curve would restrict demand growth and help to curb inflation.
The latest FOMC meeting kept the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. There have been no rate cuts for more than 75 days, so the signal has reverted to risk-on.
The Cass Freight Shipments Index 12-month moving average remains in a downtrend, signaling risk-off. The index highlights broad freight shipping levels in the mainstream economy, and a rise or fall of more than 3 basis points signals risk-on or risk-off, respectively.
US Stock Pricing
US stock pricing remains at extreme levels. We changed the composition of the Forward PE and Price-to-Sales indicators at the end of April 2026, so earlier highs are not directly comparable.
We use z-scores to measure each indicator's current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher the stock market price measure is relative to the historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.
Warren Buffett's favorite long-term measure of stock market valuation provides a stable valuation ratio largely unaffected by fluctuating profit margins.
The ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP is more than double its long-term average of 1.2. Buffett considers values above 2.0 to indicate that stock prices are dangerously high.
Robert Shiller's CAPE smoothes out business-cycle effects by comparing the S&P 500 index to a 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings.
The current advance on the CAPE ratio is the second-highest in history, behind only the 1999 peak during the Dotcom bubble at 44.2, with values far above their long-term average of 22.4.
The S&P 500 Price-Earnings (PE) ratio, based on the highest trailing earnings, remains high when compared with the long-term average of 17.3.
The Forward PE for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average uses a 20% trimmed mean to mitigate the impact of outliers.
We use a 20% trimmed mean of the Price-to-Sales ratio across the 30 stocks in the Dow to remove the most extreme readings that would otherwise distort the ratio.
A change in the Dow Jones index composition on June 29, 2026 may have contributed to the recent jump, when Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) replaced Verizon (VZ) in the index.
Conclusion
The US Bull-Bear indicator, led by the transportation sector, flags a bear market, while the composite Stock Pricing indicator warns that stocks are extremely over-priced.
ASX Stock Market
ASX Bull-Bear
The ASX Bull-Bear Leading Index signals a mild bear market.
Australian leading indicators have a 40% weighting in the ASX Leading Index, China 20%, and the US Leading Index carries the remaining 40%.
The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) retreated from resistance at 10000, but remains above its 50-week weighted moving average, continuing the risk-on signal. A breach of primary support at 9000 would signal risk-off.
The ASX 200 is above its 50-week moving average relative to Gold, but the long-term downtrend continues, with no higher troughs. The signal remains risk-off.
Performance of the ASX 200 Index relative to Gold (in Australian Dollars) reflects the real return on Australian Stocks.
NAB Forward Orders dipped in July 2026, and the 3-month moving average remains below zero, signaling risk-off.
ASX Stock Pricing
ASX stock pricing indicates that stocks are overvalued, but not as extreme as the US market.
We use z-scores to measure each indicator's current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.
Warren Buffett's favorite long-term valuation indicator compares stock market capitalization to GDP, providing a stable ratio with a long-term mean of 1.03.
The Price-to-Sales ratio for stocks in the ASX 20 uses a 20% trimmed mean to remove the highest and lowest readings, which tend to distort the average.
The Forward Price-Earnings ratio for stocks in the ASX 20 uses a 20% trimmed mean to eliminate the highest and lowest readings. This avoids distortions of the average by outliers.
Conclusion
The ASX Bull-Bear indicator signals the early stages of a bear market, while the composite Stock Pricing indicator signals stocks are over-priced. China is on bear watch after NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July, close to its risk-off signal.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
