Rising long-term rates could spoil the party

Real GDP for the September quarter reflects an annual growth rate of 2.9% for the US, well below the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate of 5.4%. Growth in weekly hours worked declined to 1.5% for the 12 months ended September, indicating that GDP is likely to slow further in the fourth quarter.

Real GDP & Estimated Total Weekly Hours

New Orders

Manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods, adjusted for inflation, shows signs of strengthening.

Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods

Transport

Transport indicators show a long-term down-trend but truck tonnage has grown since May 2023.

Truck Tonnage

Container (intermodal) rail freight likewise grew for several months but then turned down in August..

Rail Freight

Growth in weekly payrolls of transport and warehousing employees slowed to an annual rate of 3.6% in September but remains positive.

Transport & Warehousing Weekly Payrolls

Consumer Cyclical

Light vehicle sales continue to trend higher, suggesting consumer confidence.

Light Vehicle Sales

Housing

New housing starts (purple) have been trending lower since their peak in 2022 but new permits (green) are now strengthening.

Housing Starts & Permits

New single family houses sold are trending higher.

New Home Sales

Despite a steep rise in mortgage rates. In a strange twist, higher rates have reduced the turnover of existing homes on the market, with owners reluctant to give up their low fixed rate mortgages. Low supply of existing homes has boosted sales of new homes, lifting employment in residential construction.

30-Year Mortgage Rate

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index (HMI), however, reflects falling sentiment — likely to be followed by declining new home sales and housing starts.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

HMI is a weighted average of three separate component indices. A monthly survey of NAHB members asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time; sales in the next six months; and the traffic of prospective buyers. (NAHB)

Financial Markets

The ratio of bank loans and leases to GDP declined to 0.44 in the third quarter but remains elevated compared to levels prior to 2000.

Bank Loans & Leases

The cause of ballooning debt is not hard to find, with negative real interest rates for large parts of the past two decades.

Real Fed Funds Rate

Now real rates are again positive and money supply is contracting relative to GDP, the days of easy credit are at an end. A significant contraction of credit is likely unless the Fed intervenes, either by cutting rates or expanding its balance sheet to inject more liquidity into the system.

M2 Money Supply/GDP

Commercial banks continued to raise lending standards in Q3, making credit less accessible.

Bank Lending Standards

Conclusion

This is not a normal market cycle and investors need to be prepared for sudden shifts in financial markets.

The US economy is slowing but cyclical elements like light vehicle sales and new home sales are holding up well.

The rise in long-term Treasury yields, however, is likely to cause a sharp credit contraction if the Fed does not intervene by cutting rates or expanding its balance sheet (QE).

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Fed is reluctant to intervene because this would undermine their efforts to curb inflation. But they may be forced to if there is a credit event that unsettles financial markets.

Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Yield minus 10-Year Treasury Yield

Fed intervention is unlikely without a steep rise in credit spreads. But would be especially bullish for Gold.

Global recession warning

Copper broke primary support at $9,000 per metric ton, signaling a bear market. Known as “Dr Copper” because of its prescient ability to predict the direction of the global economy, copper’s sharp fall warns of a global recession dead ahead.

Copper (S1)

The Dow Jones Industrial Metals Index broke support at 175, confirming the above bear signal. A Trend Index peak at zero warns of strong selling pressure across base metals.

DJ Industrial Metals Index (BIM)

Iron ore retreated below $125 per metric ton, warning of another test of $90. Further sign of a slowing global economy.

Iron Ore (TR)

The Australian Dollar is another strong indicator of the commodity cycle. After breaking primary support at 70 US cents, follow-through below support at 68.5 confirms a bear market. A Trend Index peak at zero warns of selling pressure.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

Brent crude remains high, however, propped up by shortages due to sanctions on Russian oil. Penetration of the secondary trendline (lime green) is likely, as signs of a slowing economy accumulate. Breach of support at $100 per barrel is less likely, but would confirm a global recession.

Brent Crude (CB)

Long-term interest rates are falling, with the 10-year Treasury yield reversing below 3.0%, as signs of a US contraction accumulate.

10-Year Treasury Yield

ISM new orders fell to their lowest level since May 2020, in the midst of the pandemic.

ISM New Orders

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q2 dropped sharply, to an annualized real GDP growth rate of -2.08%.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Conclusion

We would assign probability of a global recession this year as high as 70%.