Lakshman Achuthan's US recession call

Sam Ro of Business Insider quotes ECRI:

So, with about a month to go before year-end, what do the hard data tell us about where we are in the business cycle? Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. This is because, in retrospect, three of those four coincident indicators – the broad measures of production, income, employment and sales – saw their high points in July….. with only employment still rising.

See chart at Lakshman Achuthan's Tell-Tale Chart | Business Insider.

The Threat From a Recession | ECRI

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, which claims a perfect recession-forecasting record, says an economic contraction is imminent. “We have not seen a slowdown where year-over-year payroll job growth has dropped this low without a recession,” ECRI states in a May report.

If, or when, the U.S. (and/or the global) economy does start to contract, commodity prices will tumble because of three factors…..

via The Threat From a Recession | News | News and Events | ECRI.

CNBC: Is the US headed for another recession?

Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI sticks to his forecast of a double-dip:

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Contrarian view: ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan says economy is slowing

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan says the economy is slowing:

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