Sam Ro of Business Insider quotes ECRI:
So, with about a month to go before year-end, what do the hard data tell us about where we are in the business cycle? Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. This is because, in retrospect, three of those four coincident indicators – the broad measures of production, income, employment and sales – saw their high points in July….. with only employment still rising.
See chart at Lakshman Achuthan's Tell-Tale Chart | Business Insider.
How can you call this hard data as it is always adjusted a month later , and does not include factors such workers who no longer qualify for the unemployment benefit or inflation.