Tag: CADUSD

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Aussie Dollar, Canadian Loonie and commodities

The CRB Commodities Index retreated from resistance at 325. Failure of medium-term support at 310 would signal a test of primary support at 295. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

Lower commodity prices weakened the Aussie Dollar, with a fall below $1.06 warning of a correction to the long-term (green) rising trendline. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum remains strong, however, and recovery above $1.08 would confirm a primary up-trend.

Aussie Dollar

Canada’s Loonie was helped by rising crude prices and recovery above $1.01 would confirm the primary advance to $1.06*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

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Loonie rallies

Canada’s Loonie also responded to rising commodity prices with a rally to test resistance at $1.01. Breakout remains unlikely, but would offer a long-term target of $1.07. The probability would increase if 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovers above zero.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.95 ) = 1.07

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Commodities drag Aussie and Canadian dollar lower

Commodities are weakening and dragging the Aussie and Loonie lower. The Aussie dollar shows a similar iceberg pattern on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, warning of a primary down-trend. Breakout below primary support at $0.94 would offer a long-term target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie is also headed for a test of $0.94 against the greenback. The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong down-trend. Failure of primary support (0.94) would offer a target of $0.87*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87

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Aussie and Loonie test support

The Aussie is testing support at parity against the greenback. The “iceberg” on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a primary down-trend. Failure of parity would test primary support at $0.94 and, in the long-term, breach of primary support would signal a decline to $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80

63-Day Twiggs Momentum indicates a stronger down-trend on Canada’s Loonie. Failure of support at $0.975 would test primary support at $0.94 and, in the long-term, breach of the $0.94 level would signal decline to $0.80*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87

The Aussie and Loonie normally move in sympathy with the CRB Commodities Index and a CRB break of its primary down-trend would warn of a reversal on the above two currencies.

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Aussie and Loonie hurt by dollar surge

The Aussie broke short-term support at $1.02, signaling a test of parity. The descending 63-day Twiggs Momentum “iceberg” warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of parity would indicate another visit to primary support at $0.94. In the long-term, failure of primary support would offer a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie “peeked” briefly above parity before retreating to test support at $0.975/0.980. Descending 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, indicates a primary down-trend. Breach of support would test $0.94; and failure of primary support at $0.94 would offer a target of $0.88*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.00 – 0.94 ) = 0.88

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Canadian Loonie

The Loonie pulled back to test support at $0.975 against the greenback. Failure would re-test the primary level at $0.94. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero suggests continuation of the primary down-trend. Breakout above $1.01 is unlikely — unless we see a similar breakout on the CRB Commodities Index.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87

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Forex: Euro and the Aussie dollar strengthen

The euro is testing resistance at the former support level of $1.40, in the hope that the bailout out-lined today will rescue the euro-zone from its debt crisis. We will probably read fairly disparate views over the next few weeks before the varying viewpoints synthesize into a clear market direction. Reversal below $1.365 would warn of a decline to $.20*, while narrow consolidation below the resistance level would suggest a breakout and advance to the 2011 highs.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.30 – ( 1.40 – 1.30 ) = 1.20

The Pound similarly rallied to $1.60. Respect would re-test primary support at $1.53, while breakout would target $1.67.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46

The dollar broke support at ¥76, continuing its long-term (mega) down-trend against the Yen.  Target for the breakout is ¥72*.

USDJPY

* Target calculation: 76 – ( 80 – 76 ) = 72

The Aussie benefited from the weaker greenback, recovering above $1.04 to signal an attempt at $1.08*. Penetration of the descending trendline indicates that the down-trend is weakening.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.04 + ( 1.04 – 1.00 ) = 1.08

The Aussie and Loonie both closely follow commodity prices. Respect of the upper trend channel on the CRB Index would warn of another down-swing.
CRB Commodities Index
Canda’s Loonie is testing resistance at $1.00 against the greenback. Reversal below $0.975 would warn of another down-swing, while breakout above parity would target $1.02*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 1.00 + ( 1.00 – 0.98 ) = 1.02

The Aussie dollar completed a double bottom against its Kiwi counterpart (probably due to lost man-hours after celebrating their Rugby World Cup win). Expect a test of $1.32* followed by retracement to confirm support at $1.28.

AUDNZD

* Target calculation: 1.28 + ( 1.28 – 1.24 ) = 1.32

The South Africans went home early (from the RWC) and a descending triangle on the USDZAR warns of  downward breakout to test support at $7.20.

USDZAR

* Target calculation: 7.80 – ( 8.40 – 7.80 ) = 7.20

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Euro rallies on hope of bank rescue

The euro is headed for a test of $1.40 against the greenback, on the hope that European banks will be re-capitalized after taking a haircut on the PIIGS bonds. There still appears to be some confusion — I suspect deliberate — as to who will pay, with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble suggesting that banks first attempt to raise money from investors. Given the current state of financial markets, private investment will be scarce and European taxpayers are likely to end up with sizable stakes in a number of banks. Expect resistance at $1.40 to be followed by another test of support at $1.30*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.40 – ( 1.50 – 1.40 ) = 1.30

The pound is similarly headed for resistance at $1.60. Respect would signal another test of $1.53.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46

Canada’s Loonie and the Aussie dollar both benefited from a surge in commodity prices. Expect the CADUSD to find resistance at parity, followed by another test of support at $0.94.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 1.00 – ( 1.06 – 1.00 ) = 0.94

The Aussie will find resistance between $1.02 and the descending trendline. Respect is likely and would indicate another test of $0.94.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.10 – 1.02 ) = 0.94

The Aussie has formed a broad double bottom against its Kiwi counterpart. AUDNZD breakout above $1.28 would signal a primary advance to $1.32*.

AUDNZD

* Target calculation: 1.28 + ( 1.28 – 1.24 ) = 1.32

Support is holding firm on the dollar-yen cross — with assistance no doubt from the BOJ. Expect a narrow range between 76 and 78.

USDJPY

The South African rand is testing support at R7.70 against the greenback, after penetrating its rising trendline. Probably because of all the visitors returning early from the Rugby World Cup. 🙂 Apparently they have invited the referee to run a series of clinics in South Africa on his novel interpretation of the forward-pass rule. I suggest that he decline — it could get violent. Failure of support would offer a target of R7.00*

USDZAR

* Target calculation: 7.70 – ( 8.40 – 7.70 ) = 7.00

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Commodities drag Aussie Dollar and Loonie lower

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Falling commodity prices have started a primary down-trend on both the Australian and Canadian dollar. The Aussie rallied off support at its target of $0.94, but respect of the (secondary) declining trendline would warn of further losses.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.10 – 1.02 ) = 0.94

The Loonie also bounced of $0.94 and is testing the first line of resistance at $0.9650. Respect would again warn of further losses.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 1.00 – ( 1.06 – 1.00 ) = 0.94

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Commodities point to weaker Aussie and Canadian Dollar

CRB Commodities Index is testing support at 300 and the lower border of its trend channel. 63-day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend. Breakout below the trend channel would warn of a sharp decline, with a target of 260*. Respect is less likely, but would indicate a rally to test the upper trend channel.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 300 – ( 340 – 300 ) = 260

Canada’s Loonie and the Aussie Dollar are both closely linked to commodity prices. A fall in the CRB index would lead to similar falls in the two currencies. CAD breakout below $0.9650 would signal a test of $0.94*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 1.00 – ( 1.06 – 1.00 ) = 0.94

Both currencies commenced a primary down-trend when they broke parity. An Aussie Dollar breakout below $0.97 would offer an identical target of $0.94*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.10 – 1.02 ) = 0.94

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