Tag: BSE Sensex

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Asian stocks fall but ASX 200 resilient

The Asia-Pacific region reacted to Friday’s sell-off in US markets, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng currently down 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. The Shanghai exchange is closed for a public holiday, while India’s DJ15 is down 0.67%. The ASX 200, however, rallied towards the close, losing only 0.17%.

The monthly chart of Japan’s Nikkei 225 continues to display a large bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warning of long-term selling pressure. Reversal below 14000 would signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above 15000 is as likely, however, and would indicate another advance.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 14000 ) = 16000

A monthly chart shows the Shanghai Composite Index on the flight path for a soft landing. Successive falls over the past 5 years have all exceeded the previous trough by roughly 200 points and this seems unlikely to change for the foreseeable future. The problem with a managed descent is that it is likely to endure for a lot longer than a short sharp crash. Breach of primary support at 1950 would therefore offer a target of 1800.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index on the other hand displays a large bullish ascending triangle. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough at zero indicates buying pressure Breakout above 24000 would signal a primary advance. Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend.

Hang Seng Index

* Long-term target calculation: 24000 + ( 24000 – 17000 ) = 31000

India’s Sensex encountered resistance at 22500 and is likely to retrace to test 22000. Respect would signal an advance to 23000*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of short/medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 21500 is unlikely, but would indicate another correction.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000

The ASX 200 proved surprisingly resilient, rallying toward the close. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure, but expect strong resistance at 5450/5460. Breakout above 5450/5460 would signal an advance to 5600*. Respect of resistance or a false break, however, would warn of another test of support at 5300 and possibly a stronger correction. Primary support at 5050 does not at this stage appear threatened and the index remains in an up-trend.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5300 ) = 5600

ASX 200 VIX below 12 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

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Asia: India bullish while China finds support

India’s Sensex retraced after encountering sellers at 22000, but Monday’s engulfing candle indicates support. Breakout above 22000 would signal an advance to 23000*. Reversal below 21300 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction. Momentum troughs above zero suggest a healthy primary up-trend.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for another test of 14000 after a false break above 15000. Breach of support would signal a primary down-trend. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure; reversal below zero would also indicate a primary down-trend.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 14000 – ( 15000 – 14000 ) = 13000

China’s Shanghai Composite Index found support at 1990/2000. Follow-through above the rising trendline would indicate another bear rally. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1990 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a decline to 1850.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

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Indian bulls break out

India’s Sensex broke through 21500, signaling an advance to 23000*. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 21000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000

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India decidedly bullish

India’s Sensex, on the other hand, is decidedly bullish. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero signals buying pressure. Breakout above 21500 would offer a target of 23000*. Respect of resistance is less likely, warning of further consolidation between 20000 and 21500. Failure of support is unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000

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India: Sensex finds support

India’s Sensex found support at 20000. Respect would indicate another test of the 2007 and 2010 high of 21000. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Failure of support is less likely, but would test the rising trendline (around 19000).

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 20000 ) = 22000

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Sensex resistance

India’s Sensex displays strong resistance at its 2007 and 2010 high of 21000, with several failed attempts at a breakout. Reversal below 20600 would warn of another test of primary support at 20000. The bullish ascending triangle, however, suggests an advance to 22000*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure typical of a consolidation.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 20000 ) = 22000

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India ascending

India’s Sensex displays a bullish ascending triangle above long-term support at 20200. Breakout above resistance at 21200 would signal an advance to 22000*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure typical of a consolidation. Completion of a trough above zero would indicate long-term selling pressure.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 20000 ) = 22000

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Japan bullish, but India & China reflect selling pressure

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is retracing to test its latest support level at 16000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow after a trough above zero indicates buying pressure. Respect of support would confirm a primary advance, with a long-term target of 17500*. A rising Dollar/Yen exchange rate would strengthen the signal. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

China’s Shanghai Composite breached support at 2080, confirming the primary down-trend. Expect support at 1950: the low of December 2012 and respected in 2013. Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Recovery above 2080 is unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex encountered strong resistance at 21200 and declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect another test of support at 20200. Failure would warn of a primary down-trend. Breakout above 21200 is unlikely in the next few weeks, but would suggest a primary advance to 22000*.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 20000 ) = 22000

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Bullish lead-in to the New Year

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1810, signaling an advance to 1910*. Troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1810 + ( 1810 – 1710 ) = 1910

The FTSE 100 completed its correction with a break above the descending trendline. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Breakout above 6800 would offer a target of 7200*, but expect strong resistance at the 1999 high of 6950/7000.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200

The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 broke resistance at 3100, signaling an advance to 3350*. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate a healthy up-trend. Retracement to test the new support level is likely; respect would strengthen the bull signal.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3100 + ( 3100 – 2850 ) = 3350

Germany’s DAX similarly broke resistance at 9400, offering a target of 10200*. Troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9400 + ( 9400 – 8600 ) = 10200

India’s SENSEX is testing resistance at 21200 after a correction that respected support at 20200. Breakout would signal an advance to 22200*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate buying pressure and a healthy up-trend.

BSE Sensex

* Target calculation: 21200 + ( 21200 – 20200 ) = 22200

Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke resistance at 16000, supported by a strong rise in the Dollar/Yen exchange rate. Breakout signals a primary advance with a long-term target of 19000*. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero suggests buying pressure and a healthy up-trend.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000- 13000 ) = 19000

A single cloud on the horizon, the Shanghai Composite Index is testing primary support at 2080. Failure of support would signal a primary down-trend with an immediate target of 1900*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure, but recovery above zero would suggest support.

Shanghai Composite

* Target calculation: 2080 – ( 2260 – 2080 ) = 1900

The ASX 200 is lagging other markets because of negative influence from China. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 5450 would be cause for concern if followed by reversal below 5300. Breakout above 5450 and completion of a trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, would signal another primary advance, with a target of 5900*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5000 ) = 5900

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Japan & India hesitate after breakout

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing its new support level around 15000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. Respect of support would confirm a primary advance, with a long-term target of 17500*. But breach of the rising trendline is as likely, and would warn of a correction to the base of the formation at 12500/13000.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

India’s Sensex made a false break through resistance at 21200, warning of selling pressure. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow also indicates medium-term selling pressure. Retreat below support at 20200 would warn of a test of primary support at 18000. Recovery above 21200 is unlikely at present, but would confirm a primary advance to 24000*.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

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