Tag: All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Bank & miners rally should lift ASX

The ASX 200 displays a cautious rally, with short candles reflecting an absence of buyer enthusiasm. But bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates longer-term confidence.

ASX 200 with Volume

The monthly chart shows similar rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, reflecting buyer confidence. Recovery above 6000 would be bullish, suggesting another advance. Respect of resistance is less likely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 5650.

ASX 200

The ASX 300 Banks Index respected primary support at 7000, while bullish divergence on 13-week Trend Index indicates buying pressure. Expect a bear rally to test resistance at 8000. The primary trend, however, is down.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index is consolidating above 3400 but rising iron ore prices are likely to lift the index. Recovery above 3800 would signal another advance.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index

The All Ordinaries Gold Index again respected resistance at 5500 and another test of primary support at 4500 is likely. Breach would warn of a primary down-trend with a target of 3500.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

I remain cautious on Australian banks and hold over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

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Crude reversal undermines Gold rally

Nymex crude broke support at $65, warning of a primary down-trend with a medium-term target of $56/barrel.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

Crude and gold tend to rise and fall together, over the long-term, and falling crude prices warn of gold weakness.

The bear rally in Gold is likely to meet stubborn resistance at $1250. Reversal below support at $1180 would offer a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Another major influence on Gold prices is Dollar strength. A strong Dollar is synonymous with lower gold prices. The Dollar Index is trending upwards but ran into resistance at 96.50/97.00.

Dollar Index

The reason is not hard to find as China’s central bank (PBOC) stepped in to support the Yuan at 14.5 US cents (6.9 to $1), selling Dollar reserves.

Chinese Yuan

The Aussie Dollar also strengthened as a result.

Australian Dollar

Australian Gold stocks continue to find support because of the weak currency (AUD) but a declining Trend Index warns of long-term weakness. Breach of support at 4500 would signal a primary down-trend.

All Ords Gold Index

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Gold bear rally boosts Aussie miners

China’s Yuan broke support at 14.50, warning of another decline.

Chinese Yuan

A weaker Yuan is likely to lead to Dollar strength. The Dollar Index respected support at 94 and follow-through above 96 would confirm another advance.

Dollar Index

A strengthening Dollar would weaken demand for Gold. Gold broke resistance at $1210/ounce, commencing a bear market rally. Expect resistance at $1250. Reversal below support at $1180 is unlikely at present but would warn of a decline to the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The Aussie Dollar is in a primary down-trend with descending Trend Index peaks below zero warning of strong selling pressure.

Australian Dollar

The combination of a gold bear rally and a weak Aussie Dollar prompted a rally among Australian gold miners. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) broke resistance at 4900 and is testing 5100. Ascending troughs on the Trend Index indicate buying pressure and a test of 5400 is likely.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Dollar strength keeps gold bulls in check

Gold continues to find resistance at $1210/ounce. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of LT selling pressure but rising troughs suggest a secondary rally. Respect of resistance and the declining trendline would warn of another decline, offering a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The Dollar Index found support at 94. Follow-through above 96.50 would confirm another advance. A strengthening Dollar is likely to weaken demand for Gold.

Dollar Index

The Aussie Dollar broke support at 71 US cents, prompting a weak rally among Australian gold miners. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) is ranging between 4550 and 4900. Gold is more volatile than the currency and likely to determine long-term direction. A Trend Index peak below zero would signal continuation of the down-trend.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Aussie gold stocks rally

Gold continues to find resistance at $1210/ounce. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure. Respect of resistance would indicate another decline and a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Currencies

The PBOC is supporting the Yuan at 14.5 US cents.

CNY/USD

Support for the Yuan is driving down the Dollar. Dollar Index breach of support at 95 warns of a correction to test 91. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure. A falling Dollar is likely to boost demand for gold.

Dollar Index

The Australian Dollar benefited from the weaker greenback, rallying to test resistance at 73/73.5 US cents. Trend Index peaks below zero continue to warn of long-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal a test of the 2015/2016 low at 70 US cents.

Australian Dollar/USD

Gold Stocks

Australian gold stocks rallied despite the strengthening Aussie Dollar. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) is likely to encounter stiff resistance between 4900 and 5100.  A Trend Index peak below zero would warn of further selling pressure and continuation of the down-trend.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Silver warns of further Gold weakness

Precious metals tend to trend or consolidate together, driven by similar investor motives. Spot silver is testing primary support at $14 per ounce, while a Trend Index peak at zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of support would signal a primary down-trend.

Spot Gold in USD

Gold is still testing support at $1200/ounce but Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure. Respect of the descending trendline indicates another decline with a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce, similar to silver.

Spot Gold in USD

Currencies

The Yuan continues to test support at 14.5 US cents.

CNY/USD

The Dollar Index continues to test support at 95, despite the weak Yuan. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure but long tails indicate support. Breach of support at 95 is uncertain but would signal a correction to test 91 — boosting demand for gold.

Dollar Index

The Australian Dollar continues a strong down-trend, with Trend Index peaks below zero warning of selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2015/2016 low at 70 US cents.

Australian Dollar/USD

Gold Stocks

The falling Aussie Dollar has partially cushioned local gold stocks from weaker gold prices but gold is more volatile than the Dollar. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) is expected to break support at 4550, offering a long-term target of 4000/4100.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Gold stocks face selling pressure despite plunging Aussie Dollar

The Yuan continues to test support at 14.5 US cents.

CNY/USD

The Dollar Index recovered above support at 95. Respect of support would confirm another advance, with a long-term target of 103, but bearish divergence on the Trend Index still warns of selling pressure.

Dollar Index

Gold is testing resistance at $1200/ounce but Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure. Respect of the descending trendline would indicate another decline with a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The Australian Dollar is plunging, having broken short-term support at 72 US cents. Trend Index peaks below zero indicate strong selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2015/2016 low at 70 US cents.

Australian Dollar/USD

The falling Aussie Dollar may cushion local gold stocks, to some extent, from weaker gold prices but the All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) continues its downward path. Tall shadows on the last three candles flag selling pressure. Breach of short-term support at 4550 is likely and would offer a long-term target of 4000/4100.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Gold reacts to Dollar weakness

The Yuan continues to find support at 14.5 US cents.

CNY/USD

The Dollar Index is testing support at 95. Respect of support would confirm another advance, with a long-term target of 103, but declining Trend index peaks warn of selling pressure.

Dollar Index

Gold rallied to $1200/ounce but failed to make further progress. Respect of the descending trendline would warn of another decline with a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The Australian Dollar respected resistance at 73.50 US cents, warning of another decline. Trend Index peaks below zero reflect selling pressure.

Australian Dollar/USD

The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) continues its downward path, tall shadows on the last two candles reflecting selling pressure. Breach of short-term support at 4550 is likely and would offer a long-term target of 4000/4100.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Support for the Yuan lifts Gold

China’s PBOC stepped in with belated support for the Yuan, holding the line at 14.5 US cents.

CNY/USD

The Dollar retreated, with the Dollar Index testing support at 95. Respect of support would confirm another advance, with a long-term target of 103 — if central banks like the Fed and PBOC don’t intervene.

Dollar Index

Gold rallied as the Dollar weakened, testing resistance at $1200/ounce. Respect of the descending trendline would warn of another decline with a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The Australian Dollar also rallied, reducing the benefit to local gold miners.

Australian Dollar/USD

The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) continues its downward path, with a long-term target of 4000/4100.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

China is conserving its capital account as best it can, after losing $1 trillion in foreign reserves supporting the Yuan in 2015 – 2016.

China: Foreign Reserves excluding Gold

But failure to support its currency is sure to antagonize the Trump administration and elicit further trade tariffs.

….Trade is drying up and China is stuck with debt it can’t repay or rollover easily. This marks the end of China’s Cinderella growth story, and the beginning of a period of economic slowdown and potential social unrest.

~ Jim Rickards at Daily Reckoning

If that’s the case, expect the Dollar to strengthen and further gold weakness.

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Gold stocks hammered

China’s Yuan continues to fall.

CNY/USD

Causing the US Dollar to strengthen. Dollar Index follow-through above resistance at 95 suggests further gains unless China intervenes to support the Yuan. Long-term target for the advance is 103.

Dollar Index

Gold plunged through support at $1200/ounce. Expect a test of primary support at $1130 but the long-term target is the 2015 low of $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

A Trend Index peak below zero warns of a strong decline on the Australian Dollar.

Australian Dollar/USD

But Aussie weakness was not enough to shield local gold miners. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) broke support at 4900, offering a long-term target of 4100.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Local gold stocks are getting hammered, as I feared.

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