Trump Turmoil

Discussion of a possible impeachment action against President Donald Trump is rife in the media and seems to have spooked financial markets.

The Dollar Index fell through support at 98.50, signaling another decline. The long-term target is 93.00.

Dollar Index

Gold rallied, breaking through resistance at $1250/ounce. Follow-through above $1300 would signal another advance, with a target of the 2016 high at $1375.

Spot Gold

Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated from resistance at 21000. Expect a test of medium-term support at 20400. Reversal below 20000 would be cause for concern.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of medium-term support at 2320. Breach would likewise signal a strong correction.

S&P 500

We are likely to get a secondary correction but I expect the bull market to continue. Impeachment of Trump would be a temporary setback and would make me more bullish on the long-term outlook.

It’s probably better to have him inside the tent pissing out,
than outside the tent pissing in.

~ President Lyndon Johnson on FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover whom he mistrusted

Gold hesitates

The Dollar Index rally ran into resistance at 100. Reversal below last week’s low would signal a medium-term decline to 94*.

Dollar Index

* Target: 99 – ( 104 – 99 ) = 94

Spot Gold found short-term support at $1220. Recovery above $1250 would signal resumption of the primary up-trend but a test of $1200 is more likely and breach would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.

Spot Gold

Gold falls despite weak Dollar

Commodities are falling, with the DJ-UBS Commodity Index testing support at 82.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Despite the Dollar Index breaking support at 100.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold followed, breaking medium-term support at $1240/$1250. A test of primary support at $1200/ounce is now likely.

Spot Gold

Breach of $1200 would signal a primary down-trend. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend. I still view gold stocks as a form of “Trump insurance” and am reluctant to part with exposure to this sector.

Weak Dollar strengthens gold outlook

The Dollar Index broke support at 100 despite strengthening interest rates, warning of a down-trend. Target for a decline would be the May 2016 low of 93.

Dollar Index

China has burned through a trillion dollars of foreign reserves in the last 3 years, attempting to support the yuan. I believe the sell-off is unlikely to abate and plays a major part in the Dollar’s weakness.

China: Foreign Reserves

A falling Dollar would strengthen demand for gold. Spot Gold is retracing from resistance at $1300/ounce and is likely to find support at $1240/$1250. Respect of support would suggest another advance; confirmed if gold breaks $1300.

Spot Gold

Spot Silver displays a more bearish medium-term outlook, however, with a stronger correction testing support at $17.00/ounce. Breach of support would test the primary level at $15.65 and warn of further gold weakness.

Spot Silver

Gold advance likely

The Dollar Index continues to test support at 100 despite strengthening interest rates. China’s sell-off of foreign reserves to support the Yuan may be contributing to this weakness.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold is consolidating below resistance at $1300/ounce. A more confrontational US foreign policy is contributing to global uncertainty and demand for precious metals.

Spot Gold

Breakout above $1300 is likely and would signal a test of the 2016 high at $1375.

Gold surges on North Korea fears

The Dollar Index is testing support at 100 on fears of further escalation in the stand-off with North Korea.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold broke resistance at $1260/ounce, offering an immediate target of $1300. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero signals resumption of the primary up-trend.

Spot Gold

Gold meets resistance

Spot Gold continues to test support at $1240/$1250 an ounce. Respect, indicated by recovery above $1260, is likely and would signal an advance to $1300.

Spot Gold

Is the Donald long gold?

Don’t know if he is long, but Donald Trump is doing his best to drive up demand for gold.

From the FT overnight:

Donald Trump has warned that the US will take unilateral action to eliminate the nuclear threat from North Korea unless China increases pressure on the regime in Pyongyang.

In an interview with the Financial Times, the US president said he would discuss the growing threat from Kim Jong Un’s nuclear programme with Xi Jinping when he hosts the Chinese president at his Florida resort this week, in their first meeting. “China has great influence over North Korea. And China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won’t,” Mr Trump said in the Oval Office.

“If they do, that will be very good for China, and if they don’t, it won’t be good for anyone.”

But he made clear that he would deal with North Korea with or without China’s help. Asked if he would consider a “grand bargain” — where China pressures Pyongyang in exchange for a guarantee that the US would later remove troops from the Korean peninsula — Mr Trump said:

“Well if China is not going to solve North Korea, we will. That is all I am telling you.”

Nothing like the threat of nuclear war to drive up the price of portable assets. Not that it would do much good if you are on the receiving end.

Spot Gold broke resistance at $1250 an ounce. Follow-through above $1260 is likely and would signal an advance to $1300.

Spot Gold

Theresa May had a calmer, less belligerent approach: “….encourage China to look at this issue of North Korea and play a more significant role in terms of North Korea … I think that’s where our attention should focus.”

Gold bullish as Dollar finds support

10-year Treasury Yields are consolidating around the 2.5% level. Upward breakout is likely and would signal an advance to 3.0%.

10-year Treasury Yields

The Dollar Index has found support, with a large engulfing candle at 100. Recovery above the descending trendline would suggest a fresh advance, with a target of 108*. Reversal below 99 is unlikely but would warn of a test of primary support at 93.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 100 ) = 108

China’s Yuan continues to weaken, with USDCNY in a strong up-trend. Shallow corrections flag buying pressure. 13-week Twiggs Momentum oscillating above zero indicates a strong up-trend.

USDCNY

Spot Gold is testing support at $1240/$1250 an ounce. Recovery above $1260 is likely and would signal an advance to $1300.

Spot Gold

Gold benefits from Dollar fall

The Dollar Index continues its downward path, having breached support at 100. Follow-through below the rising trendline at 99 would warn of a test of primary support at 93.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold has benefited. Currently testing resistance at $1250/ounce, narrow consolidation is a bullish sign. Follow-through above $1260 would confirm a target of $1300. Crossover of 13-week Momentum to above zero is also bullish, suggesting a primary up-trend.

Spot Gold