Category: US & Canada

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What Happens When Unemployment Benefits Are Cut? North Carolina Offers a Clue | WSJ

Cutting out benefits can reduce the jobless rate in two ways, says Mr. Feroli [Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan], pointing to past economic literature. Under the employment effect, people will take jobs even if the work pays less than the job seekers want. In the participation effect, people will drop out of the measured workforce since actively seeking a job (a criterion for being labeled officially unemployed) no longer carries an advantage of receiving jobless benefits.

Read more at What Happens When Unemployment Benefits Are Cut? North Carolina Offers a Clue – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

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Canada: TSX 60 finds support

Canada’s TSX 60 found support at 750. Recovery above 780 would signal an advance to 810*. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm strong buying pressure. Reversal below 740 remains unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 675/680.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 780 + ( 780 – 750 ) = 810

Low TSX 60 VIX readings suggest a bull market.

TSX 60 VIX

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S&P 500 correction over?

The S&P 500 found support at 1775, but declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns the correction is not yet over. Breach of 1775 would indicate a test of the ascending trendline and medium-term support at 1730. Recovery above 1810 is less likely, but would suggest an accelerating up-trend — with sharper gains and shorter retracements.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) readings below 20 are indicative of a bull market.

VIX Index

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S&P 500 threatens correction

The S&P 500 is again testing support at 1780; breakout would warn of a correction. Initial support is at 1710, with primary support and the long-term trendline at 1630. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Recovery above 1810 is now unlikely.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

The ASX 200 is already undergoing a correction after breaking support at 5300. Failure of support between 4900 and 5000 would warn of a test of primary support at 4650. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates far more severe selling pressure. A fall below zero would suggest reversal to a primary down-trend, but only breach of 4650 would confirm.

ASX 200

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S&P 500: No sign of a correction

The S&P 500 has reached its target of 1800 for the current advance, suggesting the market is due for a correction. But there is no sign of selling pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Follow-through above 1820 would suggest an accelerating up-trend — with sharper gains and shorter retracements. Reversal below short-term support at 1780 is less likely, but would warn of a correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to indicate a bull market, with readings below 15.

VIX Index

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Forex: Dollar and Sterling strengthen

The Euro is rallying for another test of resistance at $1.37 after finding support at $1.3350 against the greenback. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggest a healthy up-trend. Breakout above $1.37 would signal an advance to $1.40*. Respect of resistance, indicated by reversal below the secondary rising trendline, would, however, warn of a correction to the primary trendline at $1.31.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.34 ) = 1.40

Sterling breakout above resistance at €1.20 signals a primary up-trend. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. Target for the advance is €1.23*. Reversal below €1.19 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of €1.1650.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.20 + ( 1.20 – 1.17 ) = 1.23

The Greenback is likely to retrace to test the new support level at ¥101 Japanese Yen. Respect would confirm an advance with a target of ¥108*. The trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum strengthens the signal. Reversal below ¥101 is unlikely, penetration of the rising trendline warning of trend weakness.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 1.08

Canada’s Loonie broke primary support at $0.94, signaling another decline with a target of $0.915*. A peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum strengthens the signal. Recovery above $0.945 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.945 – ( 0.975 – 0.945 ) = 0.915

The Aussie Dollar is heading for a test of primary support at $0.89. The peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum signals continuation of the down-trend. Breakout below $0.89 would offer a long-term target of $0.81*, while respect of support would suggest a rally to $0.93. The RBA needs a weaker Aussie Dollar, without lowering interest rates, and will do all it can to assist the decline.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.89 – ( 0.97 – 0.89 ) = 0.81

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TSX tests resistance

Canada’s TSX 60 is testing resistance at 780 on the monthly chart. Breakout would signal an advance to 800* — and possibly the 2011 high of 820. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 740.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

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Bullish outlook despite retracement

Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced to test short-term support at 16000. Breach would suggest a correction to test the rising trendline at 15500. Mild bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Target for the advance is 16600* and respect of support at 15500 would suggest another advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The S&P 500 is also testing short-term support, but at 1800*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support would signal a correction to the rising trendline around 1730. Respect of the trendline would indicate a healthy up-trend.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15 continues to indicate low market risk.

VIX Index

Bellwether transport stock Fedex displays a huge surge on the monthly chart, with rising Twiggs Money Flow indicating strong buying pressure. A bullish sign for the US economy.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 100 + ( 100 – 70 ) = 130

The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend. Rising Twiggs Money Flow, with higher troughs above the zero line, indicates strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 3550*. Reversal below 3350 would warn of a correction. Short corrections and narrow consolidations are typical of an accelerating trend. Unsustainable in the long-term, accelerating trends almost inevitably lead to a sharp correction.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 – 3250 ) = 3550

Overall, I am bullish on the US market. Attempting to time entries and exits from secondary movements is expensive and our strategy at Research & Investment is to remain in the market unless risks become elevated.

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TSX advance

Canada’s TSX 60 respected support at 772/775, indicating an advance to 800*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflects selling pressure during the recent consolidation. A trough above zero would indicate buying pressure, but reversal below zero would warn of a correction — as would breach of short-term support at 772.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

TSX 60 VIX at historic lows signals a bullish outlook for stocks.

TSX 60 VIX

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Dow leads US climb

Dow Jones Industrial Average is advancing strongly, with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term buying pressure. Target for the advance is 16600*. Retracement to test the new support level remains likely, however, and respect would confirm the advance. Reversal below 15700 is unlikely, but would test the secondary rising trendline around 15500.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at the target of 1800*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1750 would warn of a correction to the secondary trendline at 1700. Short corrections are indicative of strong buying pressure.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues below 15, indicating low market risk.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend. Rising Twiggs Money Flow, with higher troughs above the zero line, indicates strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 3550*. Reversal below the latest trendline would warn of a correction. Short corrections and narrow consolidations reflect an accelerating trend, or blow-off. Steep gains, however, almost inevitably end with a sharp fall.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 – 3250 ) = 3550

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