UK & Europe Archives - Page 45 of 89

February 14, 2013

Sterling falls

Sterling retracement respected resistance at $1.58 and the pound is now headed for a test of primary support at $1.53*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below -5% would warn of a downward breakout, offering a target of $1.43.
Pound Sterling/USD

* Target calculation: 1.58 – ( 1.63 – 1.58 ) = 1.53

The fall against the euro is even more dramatic. The brief rally to $1.18 was snuffed out and short-term support at €1.15 is not secure. Expect a test of the 2011 low at €1.10.
Pound Sterling/USD

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

February 14, 2013

Euro tests support

The Euro retreated below its new support level at $1.35 on the weekly chart. Expect a test of $1.32 and the rising trendline. Respect would indicate a primary advance with a target of $1.42*. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum (above zero) suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Failure of support at $1.32, however, would indicate a bull trap — with a target of $1.27.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.32 ) = 1.42

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 11, 2013

OECD Leading Indicators Point to Divergence | WSJ.com

PAUL HANNON at WSJ writes:

The world’s largest economies are set to diverge in coming months with few signs that a broad-based recovery in growth is imminent, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s composite leading indicators.

The leading indicators for December, released Monday, point to a pickup in growth in the U.S., Japan, the U.K. and Brazil, but suggest growth will remain weak by historic standards in many other big nations [including China and India]……

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 11, 2013

Europe: DAX selling pressure

The FTSE 100 is retracing to test its (secondary) rising trendline on the daily chart. Respect would signal another advance — as would a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Germany’s DAX is retracing to test support at 7500 on the monthly chart. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Breach of support would indicate a correction to test the rising trendline — around 7000.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500 + ( 7500 – 7000 ) = 8000

Italy’s MIB index retreated below the new support level of 17000. Breach of the rising trendline — and support at 16000 — would warn of a bull trap. But a 63-day Momentum trough above zero would signal a primary advance to 19000*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 17000 + ( 17000 – 15000 ) = 19000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 7, 2013

Sterling double top

Sterling is headed for a test of primary support at $1.53* after completing a double top. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum in a similar range to the last year would indicate a ranging market in the longer term — between $1.53 and $1.63.
Pound Sterling/USD

* Target calculation: 1.58 – ( 1.63 – 1.58 ) = 1.53

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 7, 2013

Euro finds new support

The Euro is testing its new support level at $1.35 on the weekly chart. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum (above zero) strengthens the signal. Reversal below $1.32 and the rising trendline is unlikely but would indicate a bull trap — and test of primary support at $1.20.

Euro/USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 5, 2013

Immigrants in Switzerland are far more likely to have their application for citizenship rejected if the decision is made using a referendum. | EUROPP

When immigrants in Switzerland apply for citizenship, the decision is made in the municipality where they reside. While in some parts of Switzerland these decisions are made by elected representatives, in other municipalities individual applications are subject to a public referendum. Dominik Hangartner and Jens Hainmueller assess the impact of direct democracy on citizenship applications, finding that far fewer applications are accepted when a referendum is used. The applicant’s country of origin is the most important factor in determining success, with applicants from Turkey and the former Yugoslavia over ten times more likely to be rejected than those from other countries, such as Italy.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 5, 2013

The eurozone’s struggling economies are increasingly selling citizenship to raise much needed capital. | EUROPP

How far should countries go to encourage foreign investment? Jelena Dzankic writes that in a time of economic crisis, some countries in Europe are now seeking investment in exchange for citizenship. Assessing recent developments in Bulgaria, Hungary, Portugal and Ireland, she argues that despite the obvious financial benefits to such policies, they are not without risks. They may raise the potential for tax evasion and security issues, and could also reduce the relationship between the individual and the state to that of a business contract.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 3, 2013

Europe: Italy tests support while UK and Germany surge

Italy’s MIB index retreated from resistance at 18000 to re-test the key support level of 17000. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend with an initial target of 19000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 17000 + ( 17000 – 15000 ) = 19000

Germany’s DAX primary advance is approaching the 2007 high at 8000/8200. Resistance is evident, with shorter candles over the last two months and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow declining from its 2012 peak. Expect a correction, but long-term buying pressure (signaled by rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow) should see continuation of the primary up-trend.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500 + ( 7500 – 7000 ) = 8000

The FTSE 100 broke through resistance at 6000 and is advancing toward its 2007 high of 6750*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure, while the recent spike should see strong gains in February.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 3, 2013

The Global Leadership Vacuum: Europe Incapable, America Unwilling | SPIEGEL ONLINE

Gregor Peter Schmitz writes:

In 1998, then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright called America the “indispensable nation.” But now, 15 years later, it is primarily an exhausted one, a global power in decline that has its gaze turned toward the domestic front rather than Afghanistan or the Middle East.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.