S&P up-trend still healthy

The S&P 500 retreated below support at 1850, warning of a correction, but the primary up-trend remains strong. Trend strength is depicted by this weekly chart of Ichimoku Cloud, with a buy signal at the start of 2013 and price holding high above a green cloud indicating trend strength.

S&P 500

Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure, consistent with a secondary correction, but respect of the rising trendline would signal a healthy up-trend. And recovery above 1850 would offer a target of 1950*.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is rising and a sustained shift above 20 would signal an increase from low to moderate risk.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 also shows bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warning of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of the rising trendline would test primary support at 3400, while respect would confirm a healthy up-trend. Recovery above 3650 would offer a target of 3800*.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800

Redistribution boosts consumption, not output | Richmond Fed

Abstract from a February 28, 2014 paper by Kartik Athreya, Andrew Owens, and Felipe Schwartzman:

The aftermath of the recent recession has seen numerous calls to use transfers to poorer households as a means to enhance aggregate activity. We show that the key to understanding the direction and size of such interventions lies in labor supply decisions. We study the aggregate impact of short-term redistributive economic policy in a standard incomplete-markets model. We characterize analytically conditions under which redistribution leads to an increase or decrease in effective hours worked, and hence, output. We then show that under the parameterization that matches the wealth distribution in the U.S. economy (Castaneda et al., 2003),wealth redistribution leads to a boom in consumption, but not in output.

Read more at Does Redistribution Increase Output? The Centrality of Labor Supply | The Big Picture.

Polish Foreign Minister Discusses Weak EU Position in Ukraine Crisis | SPIEGEL ONLINE

From a Der Spiegel interview with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski:

SPIEGEL: Why are the Poles so highly engaged in this conflict?

Sikorski: The Ukrainians are our neighbors. They are fighting for the same things we did back in 1989 – for a country that is more democratic, less corrupt and is European.

Read more at Polish Foreign Minister Discusses Weak EU Position in Ukraine Crisis – SPIEGEL ONLINE.

How Ukraine Can Move Forward | Cato Institute

Dalibor Rohac at the Cato Institute suggest the Ukraine should focus on getting its economy back on track:

….to really understand where Ukraine is headed, it’s important to understand the roots of the unrest that led to the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych.

First, the country’s oligarchic elite, which ruled the country for the past two decades, cared little about the prosperity of ordinary Ukrainians. The evidence is not just in the tacky mansions of President Yanukovych and his men, but also in the fact that the average income in Ukraine is roughly one third of that in Poland even though both countries started from around the same point in 1990.

Second, the change of government in Ukraine follows a miscalculation on the part of the Kremlin, which long considered Ukraine as its client state, dependent on imports of natural gas from Russia. Ukrainians simply lost patience after their government effectively followed instructions from Moscow and canceled the broadly popular association agreement with the EU. Now that the plan to bully Ukrainians into submission has backfired, Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to leverage the situation to push claims to parts of Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine — most prominently Crimea and the port of Sevastopol.

Regardless of whether such territorial concessions become a reality, with an interim cabinet in place and a new presidential election scheduled for late May, it is time for Ukraine to reckon with the massive governance failure of the past twenty years.

The best response to Putin’s land grab would be to turn Ukraine into an economic success story and example to its large neighbor to the East.

Read more at How Ukraine Can Move Forward | Cato Institute.

How Market Tops Get Made | Bloomberg

Barry Ritholz interviews Paul Desmond, chief strategist and president of Lowry’s Research:

According to Lowry’s, “the weight of evidence continues to suggest a healthy primary uptrend with no end in sight.”

….. based on the data Desmond follows, he makes a fairly convincing case that this bull market still has a ways to go before it tops out.

Read more at How Market Tops Get Made – Bloomberg View.

Sanctions nerves ripple through Moscow | FT.com

The Financial Times quotes Igor Yurgens, a former Kremlin adviser:

He added that capital flight was likely to soar. He said his bank had received “a huge number of calls” into his bank’s Swiss offices from Russian clients over the past two weeks and a number of wire transfers into Swiss bank accounts out of Russia. Clients, he said, would prefer to keep money outside the country despite the risk of asset freezes.

Read more at Sanctions nerves ripple through Moscow – FT.com.

Canada: TSX 60 buying pressure

Canada’s TSX 60 is testing resistance at the 2011 high of 820. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signal buying pressure. Breakout above 820 would signal an advance to 840*. Expect support at 800 and the rising trendline.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 805 + ( 805 – 770 ) = 840

TSX 60 VIX below 15 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

TSX 60 VIX

Japan: Hesitant recovery

The Nikkei 225 recovered above 15000, signaling another attempt at 16000. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate buying pressure, but bearish divergence flags long-term selling pressure and reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend — confirmed if support at 14000 is breached.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000

China threatens decline

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing primary support at 2000. Breach would warn of a decline to 1850*. Follow-through below 1990 would confirm. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would also warn of a primary down-trend. Recovery above 2080 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of 2150.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

Indian bulls break out

India’s Sensex broke through 21500, signaling an advance to 23000*. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 21000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000