Canada: TSX 60 primary up-trend

Canada’s TSX 60 retreated from its 2008 high at 900 and is testing short-term support at 870. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong primary up-trend. Respect of the primary trendline would suggest another primary advance, while penetration of the line would warn of trend weakness — and a correction to 800/820.

TSX 60

Dow and Fedex find support

Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing medium-term support at the December high of 16500. Respect of this line would indicate a healthy up-trend, while breach would warn of a correction to the primary trendline. Failure of primary support at 15400/15600 remains unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a down-trend. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would suggest long-term buying pressure and another primary advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 16500 + ( 16500 – 15500 ) = 17500

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains below 20, suggesting continuation of the bull market.

VIX Index

Bellwether transport stock Fedex is also testing support at its December high ($144/$145). Respect would confirm a healthy up-trend — for both the stock and the economy. Likewise, a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would suggest long-term buying pressure and another primary advance. Breach of support is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at $129/$130.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 145 + ( 145 – 130 ) = 160

Two questions for Australian investors

Two questions for Australian investors:

  1. Does the graph below show an up-trend?
  2. Would it be a good time to buy this stock?

ASX 200

If your answer to both questions is NO, then why would you consider selling when we invert the price scale? The chart is the ASX 200 index. Use View >> Invert Price Scale, or Ctrl+I shortcut key to invert the chart.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 – 5350 ) = 5750

The chart below is not inverted. The ASX 200 VIX tends to behave inversely to the index. A value of 12.2 suggests low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

The Australian Dollar is retracing to test support at $0.92. Respect would indicate that buyers continue to dominate. Recovery above resistance at $0.94 would suggest an advance to $0.97. Follow-through above $0.945 would confirm. Breach of $0.92 remains unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at $0.8650/$0.87.

AUDUSD

Russian Oligarchs Shift Cash To Hong Kong Dollars On Sanctions Concerns | Zero Hedge

From Tyler Durden:

Last week we noted the very significant activity by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority as it bought USDollars in size to support its peg. It appears we have found at least one smoking gun for why they were forced to do this. In what appears to be another sanctions-blowback, Russian oligarchs are de-dollarizing their cash holdings and shifting to Hong Kong Dollars.

Read more at De-Dollarization Continues: Russian Oligarchs Shift Cash To Hong Kong Dollars On Sanctions Concerns | Zero Hedge.

Ukraine: An opposing point of view

I received this from a long-time subscriber and requested permission to publish in the interest of presenting both points of view:

Dear Colin,
Being a subscriber to Incredible charts for many years and liking it very much, for some external reasons I was not reading articles for a long time, but when I happened to read the latest “Europe leads markets lower” article I was completely taken aback how it is politically charged and how it seems to be based on mass media propaganda, not on unbiased facts and analysis… It does not leave a good impression at all. I don’t mind other people having their own opinion, but I think that it should not be imposed on others in supposedly non-political, business articles, so may we respectfully ask your editors to refrain from politically motivated language and argumentation in the business articles and leave it to politicians and political forums instead ? I am talking about the anti-Russian bias and rhetoric – I am a Ukrainian citizen and lived in Ukraine for 30 years before moving to Australia 20+ years ago and I still have friends living in Ukraine, so I think that I am a bit more qualified on this topic than Mr. Abbott’s speeches or Mr. Murdoch’s newspapers. The plain fact is that neo-nazi thugs came to power in Ukraine as the result of coup-de-tat in February (supported and sponsored by some Western countries) and once the Constitution was thrown out of window, the law and order does not exist any more there (so called theory of “controlled chaos” is in full swing), all power ministry heads and many personnel were replaced with ultra-nationalists, civil war was started and atrocious war crimes are committed as we speak – anyone with the different view to people in power at the moment is declared an enemy, people are disappearing, burned alive (in Odessa on 2nd of May), etc. Ukrainian army and semi-legal “national guards” battalions are bombarding south-east regions after they declared that they are not recognising Kiev’s neo-nazi government and everyone who knows a little bit of history would understand why that was their choice voted in referendum by majority of these regions population. This has nothing to do with Russia, but has everything to do with the people in power in Ukraine and their western supporters. In fact, Russia’s showed and still showing a great deal of patience for so many years and seems to be the only country that tries to find some peaceful solution without depriving people of their basic rights to choose the way of living. As for Crimea, this was Russian people/territory for hundreds of years until year 1954 when it was given (read stolen) by decree from the then General Secretary of USSR communist party of Ukrainian nationality and that decree was not legal even by laws of that time – no one raised strong objections at the time simply because it was the same country anyway. Later, when breaking apart Soviet Union (again not legally and against the will of people who spoke on referendum), no one cared about sorting this out properly and for 23 years Ukraine was ruling in Crimea while Russia and people of Crimea were somewhat patient about it until the February coup-de-tat in Kiev and neo-nazi coming to power. Parliament and people of Crimea made their choice very clear in law and referendum where 97% of people voted to become independent state (not unlike Kosovo so cherished by Western countries) and their natural choice and only protection would be to ask Russia to join it which Russia accepted and why it should not ? People of Crimea were saying at the time that “we may not be joining the Heaven in Russia, but definitely we are escaping the Hell” which is exactly what happens now in the former south-east region of Ukraine. If anything, Mr. Obama and other western leaders should stop baseless and counter-productive aggression against Russia and tell their buddies in Kiev to stop this violence and start diplomatic efforts. My apologies for such a long email, but I am just very saddened by the way how it is portrayed in Western media – brainwashing people who are not multilingual and cannot access alternative points of view.
Regards,
Name Withheld

Dear Name Withheld,
I appreciate you taking the time to write and express your views.

I am very concerned about the state of affairs in Eastern Europe. It is, and always has been, a tinder box. And one unintentional spark can start a fire that none of the parties intended. Respect for borders and for the rights of other countries and their citizens is one of the fundamental safeguards to prevent such outbreaks of war. Russia, no matter how strong a regional power, does not have the right to simply take territory by force because it once belonged to them or because they need the territory as a “buffer” to protect themselves from “encirclement” or outright aggression. If all states acted like that we would be in a constant state of war. They have to respect the conventions designed to safeguard the world from future wars and pursue the matter through negotiation or the international courts.

If history serves me correctly, the territory is neither Russian or Ukrainian, but Crimean. It should be up to the people who reside in the region and those who originate from there, like the Tartars, to negotiate its future and not be subjected to a ballot at the point of a gun.

Please can I post your letter on my blog in the interests of giving both points of view — with your name withheld if you wish.

Regards,
Colin

For Chinese Power Game, a Changing Equation

From Sebastian Veg, Research Professor at the School of Advanced Studies in Social Science in Paris:

By shaking up the unwritten rules that have prevailed since Deng Xiaoping consolidated power, Xi is taking a political risk. In exchange for the immunity that PBSC members were granted, they were expected to retire at the end of their term, and to remain loyal to collective decisions. If immunity is denied, both of these tenets may begin to be questioned. Why should powerful leaders retire if they can then be targeted? Why should they accept decision by consensus if they can later be made to pay the consequences as is alleged in Zhou’s case with the vote on Bo? They may be better off spending their terms gathering compromising material on other colleagues. Xi no doubt understands the risk, and believes it must be taken because the Party’s legitimacy is in danger. However, by disturbing the carefully crafted institutional balance, he runs the risk of overplaying his hand.

Read more at For Chinese Power Game, a Changing Equation.

Has Vladimir Putin taken a dangerous ideological turn?

Vladimir Putin has long shown himself to be ruthless and cynical. But also pragmatic and rational.

In his third term in the Kremlin, however, and particularly in the Ukraine crisis, Putin appears to have taken a decisive ideological turn.

As pressure mounts from Western sanctions and Russia becomes more isolated, speculation has intensified about whether Putin will seek an exit strategy from the Ukraine crisis, or whether he will escalate yet again.

The answer largely depends on which Putin — the pragmatist or the ideologue — the West is dealing with.

On the latest “Power Vertical Podcast” Brian Whitmore discusses the issue with co-host Mark Galeotti, a professor at NYU, an expert on Russia’s security services, and author of the blog “In Moscow’s Shadows”; and Kremlin-watcher Ben Judah, author of the book “Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell Out Of Love With Vladimir Putin.”

Also on the podcast, Mark, Ben, and Brian discuss how attitudes in Europe about Russia are changing — and changing dramatically.

From Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty.