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India will also benefit from lower oil prices. The BSE Sensex broke resistance at 29000, signaling a primary advance to 31000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero signal strong, long-term buying pressure. Retracement to test the new support level at 29000 is a possibility, but breach of support is unlikely.
* Target calculation: 29000 + ( 29000 – 27000 ) = 31000
Kyiv Post quotes Markian Lubkivskyi, an adviser to SBU head Valentyn Nailyvaichenko on the rise of terrorism outside of Eastern Ukraine:
“(Terrorists) are aiming to undermine Ukraine from within,” Lubkivskyi told the Kyiv Post, adding that terrorism is one of Russia’s tools in the war against Ukraine. “This is definitely a planned set of linked actions carried out to demoralize people, scare them, spread chaos and create protest moods.”
One of the latest incidents occurred on Jan. 20, when a bridge near the village of Kuznetsivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast collapsed under a cargo train that was carrying iron ore to Volnovakha in Donetsk Oblast. As a result, 10 cars derailed.
This was the fourth railway explosion over the last two months.
In January, three fuel tanks on a freight train were set on fire at the Shebelynka station in Kharkiv Oblast, and a bomb blew up a freight tank with petrochemicals at the Odesa-Peresyp railway station. On Dec. 24, explosives hidden under the railways hit a train at the Zastava 1 railway station, also based in Odesa.
Odesa has become the main target of attacks in the last two months.
The word terrorism is widely misused. What we are dealing with is state-sponsored terrorism or war by proxy. Without state sponsorship — in the form of training, weapons, logistics and financial support — most terrorist organizations would shrivel up and die. The level of proxy warfare increased hugely since World War II, when direct confrontation between major powers became dangerous because of the advent of nuclear weapons. Instead of direct confrontation these powers resorted to deniable aggression, by proxy, in order to weaken their enemies. The former Soviet Union was a major sponsor of proxy wars, from Korea and Vietnam to support for guerrilla wars elsewhere in Asia, Africa and South America. It appears that Vladimir Putin has adopted a similar strategy and is expanding its use into Eastern Europe.
It is difficult to win a guerrilla war where there are few conventional battles. The lesson from Vietnam is that you can win every battle, but still lose the war. Far better to identify and attack the sponsor through unconventional (asymmetric) means such as sanctions. Make sure that the cost outweighs the benefits of proxy warfare.
When we read the word “terrorism” in popular media, our first question should be: who is the sponsor and how can we make them desist?
Read more at Russia terror alert.
China’s Shanghai Composite retreated from resistance at 3400, but this is a long way from signaling a down-trend.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has shown much stronger gains over the last 3 years, but diverged in the second half of 2014, falling while the Shanghai Composite soared. Breach of support at 22500, and the rising trendline, would warn of a primary down-trend.
This opinion by Andrew Sheng highlights some of the challenges facing the Middle Kingdom:
#China's growth model has reached its end http://t.co/4co8WZGAG4
— Project Syndicate (@ProSyn) January 21, 2015
It is hard to find earlier examples of economies which experienced similar growth spurts to that enjoyed by China over the last decade. The closest are probably the US in the 1920s and Japan in the 1980s. Both of these should serve as a warning that times of rapid growth can generate vast imbalances within an economy that inevitably lead to periods of painful adjustment.
Employee compensation as a percentage of net value added by nonfinancial corporations has been falling since its Dotcom peak in 2000 and is now approaching lows last witnessed in the 1960s. Both rising productivity, through technological advances, and offshoring of blue-collar jobs have contributed to the fall.
Corporate profits (as a percentage of net value added by nonfinancial corporations) have shown a corresponding rise for the same period, demonstrating an inverse relationship over the last half-century. Rises and falls in both employment costs and corporate profits (as a percentage of net value added) are most likely attributable to fluctuations in output per employee (productivity) rather than fluctuating wage rates.
The question is: are rises in corporate profits and corresponding falls in employee compensation, as a percentage of net value added, sustainable? Is this time different, or are we likely to witness a peak followed by a sharp fall as in the 1960s? Productivity improvements through offshoring jobs are likely to continue for as long as the Dollar remains strong relative to Asian exporters. In other words, a very long time. Technological advances such as automation may also reduce employment costs per unit of output. But there is no clear answer as to how far profit margins will be eroded by increased competition from Europe and Asia. All we can do is monitor the relationship between employee compensation and net value added for nonfinancial corporations for clues. So far, there is no indication that the decline is reversing.
A chart of Australia’s ASX 200 Health Care [XHJ], compared to Financials-x-Property [XXJ] and the overall index [XJO] over the last 15 years, shows that outperformance of the Health Care sector is not just a recent occurrence.
The sector also proved resilient during the GFC.
One of the top-performing sectors, both in the US and Australia, is Health Care.
The strength of a momentum strategy is the ability to identify and concentrate investment in outperforming sectors like this. Our S&P 500 Momentum strategy is overweight (40%) in this sector, with investments in Pharmaceuticals, Health Care Supplies and Biotechnology stocks.
Flight to safety is driving demand for the Dollar, with the Dollar Index breaking resistance at 90 to signal a long-term up-trend.
Long-term Treasury yields are falling in response to a lower inflation outlook. But foreign Treasury purchases may also be a contributing factor, with China seeking to protect its advantage in export markets.
Expect strong support at 1.40 to 1.50 percent. Yields are unlikely to fall below that level unless there is a serious risk of deflation. Recovery above 3.0 percent appears some way off, but would warn that the 30-year secular bull market in bonds is coming to an end.
Threat of a Russian collapse roiled markets in early December, but the immediate crisis now seems to have passed.
Recovery of the S&P 500 above resistance at 2080 would indicate another advance , with a target of 2150*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs indicate long-term buying pressure. Reversal below 2000 is most unlikely.
* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1850 ) = 2150
A 10-year view of CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) suggests low to moderate risk typical of a bull market.
My favorite bellwether, transport stock Fedex, also underwent a correction. The long tail suggests buying pressure and breakout above the recent high would confirm a strong bull trend, indicating rising economic activity.
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 found support at 3000 and is likely to test 3300. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure, but the index is likely to continue ranging between these two levels until tensions between Russia and Eastern Europe are resolved.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is in a strong bull trend, having broken resistance at 2500, and is likely to test the 2009 high at 3500. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong (medium-term) buying pressure.
I continue to question China’s ability to sustain this performance, given their poor economic foundation.
RT @TomOrlik Puns are now banned in China so I'll just say that November electricity, cement, & steel output was weak pic.twitter.com/4FY3Uc6s1R
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) December 12, 2014
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index breakout above its 2007 high of 18000 would signal an advance to 19000*. Rising 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Index gains are largely attributable to rising inflation and a weaker yen.
* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 17000 ) = 19000
India’s Sensex found support at 27000. Recovery above 28000 would suggest another advance. Breakout above 29000 would confirm a target of 31000*.
* Target calculation: 29000 + ( 29000 – 27000 ) = 31000
ASX 200 performance remains weak. Breach of the recent descending trendline suggests that the correction is over, but only breakout above 5550 would complete a double-bottom formation, suggesting a fresh advance. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate medium-term buying pressure. Reversal of TMF below zero, or breach of support at 5000/5150, is now less likely, but would warn of a down-trend.
* Target calculation: 5500 + ( 5500 – 5000 ) = 6000
Tomorrow is the 100th anniversary of a momentous day during the First World War. By December of 1914 the war had already drawn to a stalemate with huge loss of life on both sides and appalling conditions in the trenches. Many of the dead could not be retrieved and were abandoned in No-Man’s land. The war that was supposed to be over by Christmas stretched interminably ahead.
Temperatures fell below freezing and snow began to fall on some parts of the line. German troops decorated the parapets of their trenches with small conifers, resembling Christmas trees. On Christmas Eve they lit candles and sang carols.
The Germans lit candles and in beautiful harmony sang “Silent night…Holy night.” So moved by their cheer, the British soldiers responded with carols of their own. This goodwill inspired many soldiers on both sides to toss gifts of food over into their enemy trenches. The German side applauded the British singing then the Brits cheered and applauded the Germans. One miracle act of goodness led to another, then another….. [1]
Informal truces were negotiated by officers despite warnings from British High Command that the enemy may be planning an attack.
Some of the more adventurous on both sides left their trenches and exchanged small gifts, swapping chocolate for sauerkraut and sausages.
“What a sight; little groups of Germans and British extending along the length of our front. Out of the darkness we could hear the laughter and see lighted matches. Where they couldn’t talk the language, they made themselves understood by signs, and everyone seemed to be getting on nicely. Here we were laughing and chatting to men whom only a few hours before we were trying to kill ”
~ Corporal John Ferguson of the Seaforth Highlanders.[2]
Christmas Day started with unarmed German and British soldiers collecting their dead from No-Man’s Land.
Fraternization continued throughout Christmas Day and the informal truce extended in some parts of the line until after New Year’s day. Regimental records of the 133rd Saxon Regiment report a football match against the British which the Saxons won 3-2.
Roughly 100,000 British and German troops were involved in the unofficial cessation of hostilities. Similar exchanges were reported between German and French troops. On the Eastern front, an unofficial ceasefire was recorded between Austrian and Russian troops the following Easter.
Overtures in later years were less successful after Allied Command ordered artillery barrages to discourage communication. Attempts at fraternisation with the enemy and negotiation of local truces to collect the dead between the lines faced severe punishment.
Company commander, Sir Iain Colquhoun of the Scots Guards, was court-martialled for defying standing orders to the contrary. While found guilty and reprimanded, the punishment was later annulled by General Haig and Colquhoun remained in his position.[3]
The Christmas truce of 1914 was a triumph of the human spirit over adversity and is a symbol of man’s humanity towards his fellow man. When we recognize that the enemy is not some faceless devil, as some leaders would have us believe, but much like us — with mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters, husbands, wives, sons and daughters — we will find it easier to resolve our differences without waging war.
Scène du film “Joyeux Noël” (Version Française)
Wishing you peace and goodwill over the Christmas season and prosperity in the year ahead.
Thanks to:
[1] http://professortaboo.wordpress.com/tag/1914-christmas-truce/
[2] http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/christmas_1914_and_world_wa.htm
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_truce
Posted by Houses and Holes
At 12:52pm on December 8, 2014
Published with permission from Macrobusiness.com.au.
From Callam Pickering:
The one glaring problem with the Financial System Inquiry is that it didn’t push hard for the introduction of macroprudential policies. That takes the heat off both the RBA and APRA.
The truth is that higher capital requirements — combined with higher risk weighting on mortgages and tax reform — would have a similar (potentially larger) effect as macroprudential policies. In the long term financial system and tax reform is clearly the better approach to creating an efficient and sustainable housing and financial sector, but these reforms will take longer to implement.
That’s right. Murray’s principle recommendations are macroprudential. APRA is now free (and is being urged) to implement higher capital requirements. They do not require anything from government to go ahead. This is basically the model of MP envisaged by Prof Ross Garnaut.
A more interesting question is whether or not APRA will still act on specific areas of risk such as interest-only loans. These are a menace, as the US bust showed, and are surging. Murray did not mention them, being too granular, but said the following on MP more particularly:
The global financial crisis (GFC) prompted policy makers and regulators around the world to reconsider their approach to maintaining financial stability. Some countries at the epicentre of the crisis have since expanded their prudential perimeters and adopted more formal and centralised institutional arrangements. This includes establishing single entities with responsibility for macro-prudential regulation. Australia has long adopted what could be called a ‘macro-prudential’ approach to supervision under the rubric of financial stability. Yet, Australia’s institutional structure is relatively informal and decentralised. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and APRA each have responsibility for financial stability. However, most macro-prudential tools can only be deployed by APRA. This places a strong premium on cooperation between the two agencies.
Against the background of developments overseas, the Inquiry has considered whether Australia should change its institutional arrangements for making and implementing financial stability policy.
However, the Inquiry does not see a strong case for change in this area. Although approach has advantages and disadvantages, alternative institutional approaches are yet to be tested — as indeed is the effectiveness of many macro-prudential tools. For this reason, the Inquiry recommends no fundamental change to the current institutional arrangements for financial stability policy and no change to the prudential perimeter at this time.
That is neither here nor there and APRA will still be free to raise capital requirements for specific loans if it sees fit.