The ASX 200 broke through support at 4220 on the hourly chart, signaling a correction to test primary support at 4040. Retracement to test the new resistance level is weak and follow-through below intra-day support at 4180 would confirm the signal.
Australia: ASX 200
The ASX 200 index has been hesitant since the breach of its descending trendline. A bottom may be forming, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero warns us not to expect much upside any time soon. Respect of the rising (green) trendline would indicate another test of 4400, while penetration would mean another test of primary support at 4000*.
A 2-hour chart shows the index headed for another test of resistance at 4310 on Monday. But momentum is falling and respect of 4310 would suggest a correction to 4000.
Australia: Credit growth
Latest stats from the RBA show that the sharp contraction in business credit has slowed, but growth of personal credit (mainly mortgage finance) is at its lowest rate since the early 1990s and is trending downwards. Credit growth does not have to fall below zero for it to have a negative impact on the economy. A fall in the rate of credit expansion will slow the rate of economic growth.
Westpac: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
It appears that the objective of this Statement is to emphasise that without a significant deterioration in global financial conditions policy should remain unchanged. When you assess the various pieces of the Bank’s description of the domestic economy – weak employment; rising unemployment rate; subdued retail spending; soft housing market; below trend growth outside mining; scaling back of public investment; building construction subdued; inflation to remain around the mid-point of the target range; policy at neutral, not stimulatory – we see a fairly clear case for policy to move into the stimulatory zone immediately. Of course our forecasts as contrasted with the Bank’s forecasts clearly suggest that the qualitative descriptions provided in this statement are understating the need for a policy response.
It has been and remains our view that a further 50bps in policy easing can be justified immediately although our forecast is that this adjustment is likely to occur over a three to four month period. We find the use of the requirement that demand conditions need to weaken materially before a rate cut can be delivered overly conservative and expect that the Bank’s policy will change more rapidly than we assess is their current intention.
Consequently at this stage we maintain our view that the next rate cut in this cycle can be expected in March to be followed by a move in May but recognise that we are currently dealing with a central bank that while acknowledging all the reasons policy needs to be stimulatory appears to have no immediate intention to move.
Bill Evans
Chief Economist
Westpac Economic Update: RBA leaves rates unchanged
The Board of the Reserve Bank surprised us with a decision to hold the cash rate unchanged at 4.25%. Whilst this indicates that for the time being the Bank is assessing the risks somewhat differently to ourselves we are not inclined to change our core view that a further 50bps in easing can be expected over the course of the first half of this year.
Bill Evans
Chief Economist
ASX 200 weakly bullish
The ASX 200 breched its descending trendline, indicating that the primary down-trend is over. Breakout above 4400 would signal the start of a new up-trend. Twiggs Money Flow (13 week) continues to oscillate around the zero line, however, suggesting weakness.
* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800
Forex: EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, JPY, ZAR
The euro remains in a strong primary down-trend. The current rally is testing resistance at $1.32, but 63 -day Twiggs Momentum continues to trend downwards. Breach of support at $1.26 would signal a down-swing to $1.20*.
* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.20
Pound Sterling has breached its declining trendline against the greenback, warning that a bottom is forming. Breakout above $1.62 would complete a double bottom reversal, testing the 2011 high at $1.68.
* Target calculation: 1.62 + ( 1.62 – 1.53 ) = 1.71
Canada’s Loonie also signals that a bottom is forming. Breakout above $1.01 would indicate the start of a primary up-trend, with an initial target of $1.06*.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
The Aussie is testing resistance at $1.08. Breakout would similarly signal a primary up-trend with an initial target of $1.18*.
* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.98 ) = 1.18
The greenback is testing primary support at 76 against the Japanese yen. Breakout would offer a target of 72*. Recovery above the declining trendline, however, would suggest that a bottom is forming — confirming the large bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum — while breakout above 80 would signal a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 76 – ( 80 – 76 ) = 72
The South African Rand is strengthening against the US Dollar, while encountering resistance at R8.50 against its Australian counterpart. Downward breakout from the ascending triangle would warn of a correction to test the long-term trendline at R7.50, while breakout above R8.50 would indicate another primary advance, with a target of R9.50*.
* Target calculation: 8.50 + ( 8.50 – 7.50 ) = 9.50
Australia: ASX 200
The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 4400. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 4400 would complete a higher trough, signaling the start of a primary up-trend, but selling pressure in US and Chinese markets may prevent this.
* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800
Australia, Japan and South Korea
Australia’s ASX 200 index is lagging other resources markets, but penetration of the descending trendline on Monday suggests that a bottom is forming. Breakout above 4400 would signal a primary up-trend, with an initial target of 4800*.
* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800
Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for a test of 9100, but still has some way to go. Cross-over of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would be a bullish sign.
Dow Jones South Korea Index is testing resistance at 420. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 420 would complete a higher trough, signaling a primary up-trend. Target for the initial advance would be 460*.
* Target calculation: 420 + ( 420 – 380 ) = 460
Australia and Asia
Australia’s ASX 200 index continues to range between 3850 and 4350. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflects medium-term selling pressure, but the long-term rise reflects buying support. Failure of support at 4000 would suggest another test of 3850, but only breakout from the range will offer a clear long-term signal.
China’s Shanghai Composite index respected resistance at 2300, suggesting a decline to 2000*. Deep negative values on 63-day Twiggs Momentum are evidence of a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2300 – 2150 ) = 2000
India’s Nifty Index is headed for a test of the upper border of its downward trend channel at 5200. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero continues to indicate a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 5600 + ( 6600 – 5600 ) = 5100
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell sharply Monday to test short-term support at 8360. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Breakout below 8200 would warn of another primary decline, with a target of 7400*.
* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9000 – 8200 ) = 7400