Australia & NZ Archives - Page 83 of 96

April 19, 2012

Forex: Canadian Loonie and Aussie Dollar

Canada’s Loonie continues its narrow consolidation, having withstood falling crude oil prices over the last two weeks. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would signal a primary advance to the 2011 high of $1.06*. Failure of support at $0.995 is less likely but would warn of a correction to primary support at $0.95.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Weaker commodity prices are dragging the Aussie Dollar lower. On the weekly chart we can see the Aussie testing medium-term support at $1.02. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggest a strong up-trend. In the longer term, breakout above $1.085 would offer a target of $1.20*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

On the daily chart, the Aussie Dollar is testing resistance at $1.045. Breach of its descending trendline indicates that the correction has weakened. Recovery above $1.045 would indicate the start of a fresh advance to test the 2012 high of $1.085.

Aussie Dollar

The Aussie Dollar is also retracing for another test of support against the South African Rand — at R7.90/R8.00. Momentum has fallen sharply and failure of support would warn of a correction to the long-term ascending trendline, around R7.50.

Aussie Dollar/South African Rand

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

April 16, 2012

ASX 200 bullish ascending triangle

The weekly chart of the ASX 200 shows the index testing resistance at 4350/4400 in a bullish ascending triangle. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. We need to be cautious because of bearish sentiment in the US and Europe but breakout above 4400 would signal the start of a primary up-trend, with an initial advance to 5000*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 3800 ) = 5000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 12, 2012

Forex: Canadian Loonie and Aussie Dollar

Canada’s Loonie continues its narrow consolidation between $0.995 and $1.01 but falling crude prices warn that a correction is likely. Breakout below $0.995 and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would both signal a correction. Upward breakout is currently unlikely but would signal a primary advance to $1.06*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

On the daily chart, the Aussie Dollar found short-term support at $1.025 and is now rallying to test resistance at $1.045. Respect would indicate continuation of the correction, with a target of parity. Weaker commodity prices increase the likelihood of a strong correction. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.04 – 1.02 ) = 1.00

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 5, 2012

Australia's Surplus Dreams Are Just That – WSJ.com

Cynthia Koons: Not only were [Australian] exports down, but imports declined too. Imports of goods for consumption fell 7%, reflecting caution in Australian households. Capital goods imports fell by 5%, a number that should be a particular concern for policy makers: A slowdown in purchases of machinery and equipment could be an early sign that investment in Australia’s resources boom is weakening.

via Heard on the Street: Australia’s Surplus Dreams Are Just That – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 4, 2012

Forex: Aussie Dollar & Canada's Loonie

The Aussie Dollar broke medium-term support at $1.04 — in response to lower than expected resources exports to China and RBA hints at further rate cuts. Expect a strong correction, testing parity and possibly primary support at $0.97. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would indicate trend weakness but suggests a ranging market, with the indicator oscillating around zero, rather than a primary down-trend.

Australian Dollar/USD

Canada’s Loonie is more resilient because of stronger crude oil prices. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would signal an advance to $1.06. Reversal below $0.995 is less likely but would warn of another correction — especially if crude oil weakens.

Canadian Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 advances

The ASX 200 broke medium-term resistance at 4300, indicating an advance to 4400. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 4400 would confirm, offering an initial target of 4800*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800

The biggest obstacle to an ASX up-trend is weakness in China. Signs that a bottom is forming would boost the ASX but that is not evident at present.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 31, 2012

Australia: Super fund returns

Overall, for the 15 years to June 2011, the average ROR for the superannuation industry was positive, with a 15-year average ROR of 5.2 per cent per annum. The average industry-wide ROR, when adjusted for the 2.7 per cent per annum inflation, provided a real return of 2.5 per cent per annum.

Most funds which existed for the whole period had a 15-year average fund-level ROR of between 3.9 and 6.5 per cent per annum.

APRA: Annual Superannuation Bulletin (June 2011)

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 29, 2012

Forex: CAD, AUD, ZAR

Canada’s Loonie continues a narrow consolidation below $1.01, suggesting an upward breakout in response to higher oil prices. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary advance. Target for the advance would be the 2011 high of $1.06. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of reversal.

CAD/USD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The Aussie Dollar reflects broader weakness in commodities. Breach of the rising trendline would warn of a decline to test primary support at $0.96, while respect would indicate another test of $1.08 — and suggest an upward breakout.

AUD/USD

Against the South African Rand, the Aussie Dollar continues to test support at R8.00. Narrow consolidation suggests a downward breakout and test of the long-term trendline at R7.50. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

AUD/ZAR

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 26, 2012

ASX 200 response

Australia’s ASX 200 opened with a strong blue candle on the hourly chart but is now retracing to find support. Respect of short-term support at 4290 would suggest follow-through to 4320, while failure would test medium-term support at 4240/4250.

ASX 200 Index

Breakout above 4320 would indicate another test of 4400. Though we are unlikely to see a primary up-trend until China signals that it has formed a bottom.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 24, 2012

ASX 200 hesitant

Australia’s ASX 200 index displays stubborn resistance at 4300, but rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Upward breakout would signal a primary up-trend, with an initial target of 4650 and a long-term target of 4950*. The right-angled broadening pattern reflects weak support and downward breakout would test primary support at 4000.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 3850 ) = 4950

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.