Australia & NZ Archives - Page 72 of 96

November 5, 2012

Australian court finds S&P liable for ratings opinion | Bloomberg

An Australian judge has found S&P [MHP] liable for its opinion in assigning AAA ratings to two ABN Amro structured debt issues in 2006, which lost over 90% of value during the GFC — the first time a ratings agency has been held liable for such an opinion.

S&P was “misleading and deceptive” in its rating of two structured debt issues in 2006, Federal Court Justice Jayne Jagot said in her ruling released today in Sydney.

via McGraw-Hill Plummets After Australian Court Ruling – Bloomberg.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

November 4, 2012

Australia: Falling job ads

ANZ job ads fell 4.6 percent in October after a 3.9 percent fall in September. The index is down 15 percent over the last year.

From ANZ:

“The ANZ job advertisement series measures the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and Internet sites covering the capital cities each month. It has historically proved to be a very good indicator of future labour market conditions and thus, is extensively relied upon for forecasting employment growth.”

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 1, 2012

Australia: Terms of trade down 4.2%

Westpac reports Australia’s terms of trade (for goods) weakened for the fourth consecutive quarter, down 4.2% in Q3 and 14.7% over the last four quarters.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 31, 2012

Global QE

Observation made by Philip Lowe, RBA Deputy Governor:

Since mid 2008, four of the world’s major central banks – the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England – have all expanded their balance sheets very significantly, and further increases have been announced in a couple of cases. In total, the assets of these four central banks have already increased by the equivalent of around $US5 trillion, or around 15 per cent of the combined GDP of the relevant economies. We have not seen this type of planned simultaneous very large expansion of central bank balance sheets before. So in that sense, it is very unusual, and its implications are not yet fully understood……

via RBA: Australia and the World.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 30, 2012

Chinese TV Host Says Regime Nearly Bankrupt | Epoch Times

A sobering assessment of China’s economy reported by Matthew Robertson:

Larry Lang, chair professor of Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said in a lecture that he didn’t think was being recorded that the Chinese regime is in a serious economic crisis — on the brink of bankruptcy.

The youtube audio requires translation:

http://youtu.be/comHcv7qSBg

Robertson summarizes Lang’s assessment into five key points:

The regime’s debt sits at about 36 trillion yuan (US$5.68 trillion).
The real inflation rate is 16 percent, not 6.2 percent as claimed.
There is serious excess capacity in the economy, and private consumption is only 30 percent of economic activity.
Published GDP of 9 percent is also fabricated. According to Lang, GDP has contracted 10 percent.
Taxes are too high. Last year, direct and indirect taxes on businesses amounted to 70 percent of earnings…..

via Chinese TV Host Says Regime Nearly Bankrupt | Business & Economy | China | Epoch Times.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 30, 2012

Australia: Stocks may be fully priced

Christopher Joye from the AFR suggests that Australia’s sharemarket may be “fully priced”:

New analysis from UBS poses an interesting puzzle: we have yet to see ASX earnings per share recover to pre-crisis levels. Top-rated UBS strategists Matthew Johnson and Andrew Lilley find that “aggregate equity market data shows declining earnings and weakening corporate balance sheets” in 2012…..

via Sting in inflation surprise.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

A Hard Landing Down Under | The Big Picture

Andy Xie has a bearish outlook on China and believes 2013 could be a tough year for Australia:

The market went from not believing in China’s growth story a decade ago to extrapolating past performance into the infinite future……The year 2008 should have been the end of this boom cycle. China’s stimulus misled the market into believing otherwise…..The Australian economy is probably a bubble on top of China’s overinvestment bubble. The latter’s unwinding will sooner or later trigger the former to do so, too…..

via A Hard Landing Down Under | The Big Picture.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 trend channel

The ASX 200 failed to hold on to early gains Monday. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect a test of the lower trend channel. Weakness in US or Asian markets could cause a breach of the 4400 support level, indicating a correction to 4000. Respect of support, however, would indicate a healthy up-trend — and an advance to 4900*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4450 + ( 4450 – 4000 ) = 4900

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 28, 2012

Australia's cultural revolution

Benjamin Herscovitch writes:

“Any genuine liberal democracy will be multicultural: a commitment to liberal rights and freedoms is counterfeit unless it comes with a commitment to cultural diversity. Beyond a corruption of liberalism, the idea of a monolinguistic and monocultural Australia is only plausible if we deny who we are. Australia is Chinese, Indian and Vietnamese just as it is Irish, English and Italian. Multiculturalism is not a collective aspiration; it is not a policy that can be terminated. It is unapologetically an Australian reality.”

Be careful not to throw the baby out with the bath water. Australia’s strength lies in its core values, many of which stem from its Anglo-Celtic past. One of those strengths is an open society that has successfully integrated successive waves of immigrants into mainstream Australian culture. Our culture has been enriched by the experience.

A unified society requires a cohesive set of values to which everyone subscribes — no matter their ethnic background, language or religion. We should celebrate our ethnic and cultural diversity but not use multiculturalism as an excuse for failing to properly assimilate some minorities. We need to be tolerant of diversity but intolerant of anything that conflicts with our core values of fairness and tolerance. To act otherwise would be simply un-Australian.

A cultural revolution to celebrate | The Centre for Independent Studies.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 28, 2012

The real solution to poverty: JOBS | CIS

By Andrew Baker and Peter Saunders:

There are two ways to reduce “poverty”: increase the value of welfare benefits faster than the value of wages, or move substantial numbers of people off welfare and into full-time jobs. Anti-poverty campaigners invariably emphasise the first option and neglect the second, but the first actually undermines the second……

The real solution to poverty: J-O-B-S, J-O-B-S, J-O-B-S | The Centre for Independent Studies.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.