Australia & NZ Archives - Page 68 of 97

February 27, 2013

Forex: Euro and Sterling retreat while Aussie Dollar rebounds

The euro broke medium-term support at $1.32 and the rising trendline against the greenback. While this indicates trend weakness it does not necessarily mean reversal to a primary down-trend. Completion of a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would suggest that the trend is intact — and an advance to $1.42* is on the cards.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.36 + ( 1.36 – 1.30 ) = 1.42

Pound sterling broke long-term support at $1.53 against the greenback, offering a long-term target of $1.43*. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below -5% (its 2011 low) would strengthen the signal.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.63 – 1.53 ) = 1.43

Against the euro, the pound is testing support at €1.15. 63-day Twiggs Momentum well below zero suggests a strong down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of the 2011 low at €1.10.
Aussie Dollar/USD

The Aussie Dollar respected primary support at $1.015. Recovery above $1.03 and the declining trendline would suggest another rally to test $1.06. Reversal below $1.02 would warn that primary support is under threat.

Aussie Dollar/USD
Failure of primary support would offer a target of $0.96*. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum close to zero, however, suggests a ranging market.

* Target calculation: 1.01 – ( 1.06 – 1.01 ) = 0.96

The Canadian Loonie by contrast is in a strong primary down-trend against the greenback, headed for a test of $0.96. Falling 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests that medium-term support at $0.97/$0.98 is unlikely to hold.
Aussie Dollar/USD
The US dollar has broken its long-term declining trendline against the Japanese Yen, suggesting that the 30-year decline is over and the greenback likely to appreciate for the foreseeable future. Follow-through above ¥100 would confirm, offering a target of ¥120*.

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 80 ) = 120

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

February 25, 2013

ASX 200: Small caps warning

The ASX 200 is headed for another test of resistance at 5100 on the hourly chart. Breakout would signal continuation of the primary advance. Reversal below 5050, however, would indicate another test of 5000.
ASX 200 Index
The monthly chart shows strong momentum but retracement to test the new support level of 5000 is likely in the weekly (if not monthly) time frame. Respect of support on the weekly chart would confirm a primary advance with a long-term target of 6000*.

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000

ASX small-caps are still doing badly, with the ASX 50 [$XFL] out-performing the $XSO by a substantial margin. That is the opposite of what one would expect in a bull market and should be treated as a warning to exercise caution.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 20, 2013

Aussie Dollar weakens

The Aussie Dollar is headed for a test of primary support at $1.015 on the weekly chart. Failure of support would offer a target of $0.96, while respect would signal another attempt at $1.06. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests a downward breakout.

Aussie Dollar/USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 18, 2013

ASX 200: The scramble for yield

The ASX 200 broke short-term resistance at 5050 on the hourly chart before retreating to test its new support level. The index is advancing in layers of 25 points (5000 >> 5025 >> 5050 >> 5075) and shows no signs of abating. But retracement to test the new support level of 5000 remains likely in the larger time frames. Respect of support on the weekly chart would confirm a primary advance, with a long-term target of 6000*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000

One area of concern: the advance is being driven by a scramble for yield, with blue chip stocks in the ASX 50 [$XFL] out-performing mid-caps [$XMD] by a wide margin — the exact opposite of what one would expect in a bull market.

ASX 200 Index

The situation is even worse when comparing to small-caps [$XSO].

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 17, 2013

Industry policy cannot offset the Australian dollar | MacroBusiness

Houses & Holes at Macrobusiness writes:

Adding a couple of $100 million to industry innovation support is just not going to cut it. Our authorities should do exactly what the rest of the world is doing. Go to the G20 and join the chorus of indignity directed at currency manipulation, come home and drive down using every available tool. That is essentially what the recommendations of the Manufacturing Taskforce aimed at doing. If you think nothing can be done, ask yourself, why are we the only ones not doing it?

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 14, 2013

Aussie Dollar tests trendline

The Aussie Dollar retreated above its former support level at $1.03 on the daily chart. Breakout above $1.04 — and the declining trendline — would indicate a bear trap, while reversal below $1.03 would test primary support at $1.015. Retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would favor a down-swing.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.03 – ( 1.06 – 1.03 ) = 1.00

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 13, 2013

ASX 200 passes first test

The ASX 200 passed its first test after breaking long-term resistance at 5000. The index retraced to test the new support level [test #1] in the first hour of trading today but rallied strongly thereafter. Respect of support strengthens the breakout signal but expect further tests in the weeks ahead. Respect in the Daily and Weekly time frames would confirm the primary advance, with a long-term target of 6000*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 11, 2013

ASX 200 tests 5000

The ASX 200 continues to test resistance at 5000. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would offer a long-term target of 6000*. Respect of resistance, while unlikely, would suggest a correction to 4500.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 10, 2013

Electric version of Holden Commodore

Barry Park at Drive.com.au takes a ride in a battery-powered version of Holden’s popular family car:

EV Engineering, the Port Melbourne based start-up that has taken nine Commodore family cars, gutted them of their V6 and V8 petrol drivetrains and replaced them with swappable batteries, a recharging cord and a powerful electric motor, is finally ready to trial its technology…..On paper, the EV Engineering Commodore produces 140kW of power and an impressive 400Nm of torque almost as soon as you squeeze the throttle. Engineers wanted to match the regular Commodore’s 8.7-second sprint from rest to 100km/h, but the way the battery-powered car builds speed means it can gather the same speed within 8.5……

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 7, 2013

Aussie Dollar: Momentum falling

The Aussie Dollar is again testing support at $1.03 on the weekly chart. Respect would indicate further consolidation — and a test of resistance at $1.06 — while failure would offer a target of parity ($1.00). Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would favor a downward breakout.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.03 – ( 1.06 – 1.03 ) = 1.00

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.