Australia & NZ Archives - Page 68 of 96

February 14, 2013

Aussie Dollar tests trendline

The Aussie Dollar retreated above its former support level at $1.03 on the daily chart. Breakout above $1.04 — and the declining trendline — would indicate a bear trap, while reversal below $1.03 would test primary support at $1.015. Retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would favor a down-swing.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.03 – ( 1.06 – 1.03 ) = 1.00

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

February 13, 2013

ASX 200 passes first test

The ASX 200 passed its first test after breaking long-term resistance at 5000. The index retraced to test the new support level [test #1] in the first hour of trading today but rallied strongly thereafter. Respect of support strengthens the breakout signal but expect further tests in the weeks ahead. Respect in the Daily and Weekly time frames would confirm the primary advance, with a long-term target of 6000*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 11, 2013

ASX 200 tests 5000

The ASX 200 continues to test resistance at 5000. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would offer a long-term target of 6000*. Respect of resistance, while unlikely, would suggest a correction to 4500.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 10, 2013

Electric version of Holden Commodore

Barry Park at Drive.com.au takes a ride in a battery-powered version of Holden’s popular family car:

EV Engineering, the Port Melbourne based start-up that has taken nine Commodore family cars, gutted them of their V6 and V8 petrol drivetrains and replaced them with swappable batteries, a recharging cord and a powerful electric motor, is finally ready to trial its technology…..On paper, the EV Engineering Commodore produces 140kW of power and an impressive 400Nm of torque almost as soon as you squeeze the throttle. Engineers wanted to match the regular Commodore’s 8.7-second sprint from rest to 100km/h, but the way the battery-powered car builds speed means it can gather the same speed within 8.5……

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 7, 2013

Aussie Dollar: Momentum falling

The Aussie Dollar is again testing support at $1.03 on the weekly chart. Respect would indicate further consolidation — and a test of resistance at $1.06 — while failure would offer a target of parity ($1.00). Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would favor a downward breakout.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.03 – ( 1.06 – 1.03 ) = 1.00

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 5, 2013

EconoMonitor » Australia’s Economic Outlook—The Nauru Option?

Satyajit Das writes:

In a 29 November 2010 speech entitled The Challenge of Prosperity, RBA Governor sought to illustrate the combined effects of the gains of the appreciating terms of trade position and the A$ strength in the following terms: “In 2005 a shipload of iron ore was worth the same as around 2,200 flat screen televisions In 2010, the same shipload was worth around 22,000 flat screen TVs”. In a Freudian slip, the RBA Governor identified a fundamental issue with Australia’s economic model.

Australia may have substantially wasted the proceeds of its mineral booms, with the proceeds channelled into consumption. The nations did not channel enough into strategic long term investments or develop a new industrial base. According to one study, the commodity boom increased government revenues between 2002 and 2008 by around A$180 billion of which A$36 billion was used to repay public debt, A$69 billion was placed into the Future Fund (to meet the cost of public sector superannuation liabilities) and $75 billion was transferred to households in the form of tax cuts and payments.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 3, 2013

ASX 200 approaches key resistance level

The ASX 200 is retracing today to test short-term support at 4900 but medium-term buying pressure — as indicated by 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero — suggests a test of 5000.

ASX 200 Index

Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Breakout above 5000 would offer a long-term target of 6000*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 25, 2013

ASX 200 approaches key resistance level

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5000, supported by rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (shown below) signaling buying pressure. Breakout would signal an advance to 6000. S&P 500 breakout above its 2007 high would enhance buying pressure, while failure would suggest a re-test of medium-term ASX 200 support at 4500.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 24, 2013

Aussie Dollar tests support

Staying with long-term, monthly charts we can see the Aussie Dollar consolidating in a narrow range below resistance at $1.06. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum close to zero also indicates a ranging market. Upward breakout is more likely and would signal an advance to $1.10*, while reversal below $1.02 would re-test primary support at $0.96.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.06 + ( 1.06 – 1.02 ) = 1.10

On the daily chart, the Aussie is testing support at $1.05. Failure would signal another correction to test $1.02, while respect would suggest breakout above $1.06 — and a long-term advance to $1.10.

Aussie Dollar/USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 17, 2013

Euro advances

The Euro is advancing against the weakening dollar. Target for the advance is the long-term declining trendline on the monthly chart — around $1.40. A primary up-trend is signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero.

Euro/USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.