3 Replies to “Australia: Interview with Hawke & Howard”

  1. Interesting video covering many subjects.
    Just one issue I’d like to take up – the issue of chosing between USA and China. Both Howard and Hawke gave the stock answer, however I believe the question is inadequate, the question ought to be does Australia have the choice to make a choice.
    It seems obvious to me that the main actors (USA and China) will conduct their relationship with each other in the ways that great powers have always conducted relationships with each other, as rivals. Whether by deliberate choice or miscalculation (the cause of most wars or serious conflicts) this could lead at some future time to serious conflict, whether we want that or not (obviously it would not be in our interest). In those circumstances we would be forced to make the choice whether we want to or not. I hope that at some level of the senior public service, there are contingency plans being formulated to sensibly confront this potential issue and to formulate responses which are really in Australia’s best interests. A horrible dilemna I know, but we would be foolish to ignore this possibility.

    1. I believe that the US and China are doing their best to avoid rivalry by encouraging economic inter-dependency. The problem could arise, however, that other rivalries — such as China-Japan, China-Taiwan or North-South Korea — force a split in that relationship and ultimately lead to war. Australia as a strategic supply of key resources would then become a pawn in the game, whether it was neutral or not. The only real deterrent would be nuclear, whether land-based or sea-based, as we do not have the population to offer any serious resistance.

  2. Colin I hope you are right and that the official line that we do not have to choose between the US and China turns out to be correct. You speak of the US and China as if they are each single entities behaving in a completely logical fashion. History tells us that the causes of major conflicts are not often about logic, more usually they are caused by highly illogical thinking by individuals who ought to have known better and issues such as prestige and “face” become more important than the horrible realities of the suffering caused by such conflicts, another issue has always been miscalculation about the effects on rivals of potentially risky strategic moves.
    I am not advocating neutrality, we are obviously not neutral and are firmly in the camp of the USA. I don’t doubt that “China” knows and understands that. I also think (perhaps hope might be a better term) that our close ties with the USA and our willingness to support them over many decades have brought a level of protection to us, however for the reasons you state (we do not have the population to offer serious resistance), we had better hope that the USA continues to be the dominant military power into the future. If there should be a serious change in the power relationship between the USA and China, then it is possible that being an ally of tthe USA could put us into a more hazardous position rather than a lesser one. These are the issues that smaller to middle sized powers have always had to balance throughout history and I repeat that I hope enough strategic thinking is taking place at some level of senior government to continually reassess Australia’s best interests way into the future.
    At my age I personally have little to worry about, but my children and grandchildren may very well be faced with the dillemna of choice.

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