China rally spurs ASX advance

China’s Shanghai Composite Index rallied from support at 1950 to test medium-term resistance at 2100 on the weekly chart. Breakout would indicate a test of the descending trendline at 2200. The primary trend is down, but penetration of the trendline would suggest that a bottom has formed.

Shanghai Composite Index

The Shenzhen Composite Index has been in a primary up-trend since May, but displayed weakness with a second, shaky test of support at 900. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate the primary up-trend is intact. Breakout above the last high at 1040 would confirm — a bullish sign for the Shanghai Composite.

Shenzhen Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing medium-term support at 13500. Breach would indicate a correction to primary support at 12500, but respect of the zero line by 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would suggest the primary up-trend is intact. Recovery above 14500 would strengthen the signal.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex respected primary support at 18500. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate moderate buying pressure. Expect another test of resistance at 20500 (i.e. a test of 20500 is likely). Breach of support, while unlikely, would warn of a primary down-trend — confirmed if there is follow-through below 18000.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The ASX 200 broke short-term resistance at 5120, signaling an advance to the May peak at 5250. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 5000 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to at least 4850.

ASX 200 Index

Breakout above 5250 would indicate another advance, but high volatility, shown by the broadening formation of the last few months, will require further evidence to confirm this.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

Superannuation is inequitable and unsustainable | | MacroBusiness

I agree with Leith van Onselen that Australia’s aged pension/superannuation regime will be sorely tested over the next 30 years as the number of workers per retiree falls to below 2.5 to 1:

Workers per Retiree

But I don’t agree with his proposed solution:

…The flat 15% tax on superannuation contributions should also be axed in favour of a flat 15% concession. As illustrated above, under the current 15% flat tax arrangement, the amount of super concessions rises as one moves up the income tax scale, resulting in a system whereby higher income earners receive the most super tax benefit, despite being the very people that are the least likely to rely on the aged pension in retirement. A flat 15% concession, by comparison, would improve the equity and sustainability of the system by: 1) providing all taxpayers with the same taxation concession; 2) boosting lower income earners’ super savings and thus reducing reliance on the aged pension; and 3) reducing costs to the budget.

Argument that the flat tax on superannuation contributions is inequitable is based on the presumption that the present system of progressive tax rates is equitable. No doubt high income-earners benefit more from the flat tax than low income-earners, but the proposal ignores the fact that they pay more income tax in the first place. And even after the larger tax savings on their super contributions, the high income-earner will pay a significantly higher average tax rate.

Read more at Superannuation is inequitable and unsustainable | | MacroBusiness.

Pollies miss the point on infrastructure | MacroBusiness

I fully support Leith van Onselen’s view on infrastructure investment:

It is important to (as much as possible) take the decision-making for infrastructure investment away from the political process and instead place it in the hands of an independent authority tasked with maximising overall welfare and productivity at lowest cost. Picking infrastructure winners, based on preconceived ideas or political motivations, is a recipe for waste and is likely to end up being productivity-destroying for the economy at large.

Read more at Pollies miss the point on infrastructure | | MacroBusiness.

China ‘hard landing’ could trigger Australia recession: Standard & Poor – The Economic Times

“Australia’s exposure to commodity demand from Asia, and China in particular, was a saving grace during the global recession of 2009. But by the same token it has become Australia’s Achilles’ heel,” the ratings giant [Standard & Poor’s] said.

“Particularly while mining investment remains such a large share of the Australian economy, and other sectors continue to lack growth momentum, Australia remains highly sensitive to a sharp correction in China’s economic growth.”

Read more at China ‘hard landing’ could trigger Australia recession: Standard & Poor – The Economic Times.

ASX 200 tests resistance

The ASX 200 rallied off support at 5000. Breakout above 5120 would indicate an advance to 5250. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow supports the signal. Reversal below 5000 is unlikely, but would test medium-term support at 4850. Breakout above 5250 would present a long-term target of 5850*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

The ASX 200 Volatility Index ($XVI) below 15 is a bullish sign.

ASX 200 Index

Increase the GST to 20%? Yes, but I wouldn’t recommend it

Sinclair Davidson writes:

The Henry Review indicated that the GST had a deadweight loss (the loss of value that occurs when a tax is imposed) of some 8 cents in the dollar, compared to 24 cents for personal income tax, and 40 cents for the corporate income tax. So increasing the GST and reducing income tax rates looks like a win-win for everyone. On a purely economic assessment that is what many economists would recommend.

…but

Voters and taxpayers do not want Canberra to have too much access to easy tax dollars because they know full well the power to tax will be abused.

Read more at Increase the GST to 20%? Yes, but I wouldn't recommend it.

S&P 500 and Europe cause ASX 200 to hesitate

Mildly bearish sentiment in the US and Europe is causing hesitancy on the ASX 200, while China continues to consolidate above long-term support.

The S&P 500 retreated below resistance at 1700, indicating a test of support at 1675. Longish tails on the last two candles are indicative of buying.  Recovery above 1700 would signal continuation of the advance to 1800*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, reflects selling pressure and breach of 1675 is more likely, testing the stronger support level at 1650. Primary support is some way off at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

Recovery of Dow Jones Europe Index above 290 indicates an advance to 310*. Follow-through above 295 strengthens the signal, but divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests that a top may be forming. Reversal of TMO below zero would strengthen the warning.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 290+ ( 290 – 270 ) = 310

China’s Shanghai Index holds steady above long-term support at 1950. Breakout above 2100 would suggest a rally to the downward trendline, but declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure and breach of support at 1950 would offer a target of 1750*.

Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 1950 – ( 2150 – 1950 ) = 1750

Australia’s ASX 200 found support at 5000 after falling sharply on Wednesday. Recovery above 5100 would indicate another test of 5250. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow close to zero suggests hesitancy. Breach of 5000 is as likely, and would test the stronger support level of 4850, providing a more robust foundation for further advances.

ASX 200 Index

The Magical World Where McDonald’s Pays $15 an Hour? It’s Australia | The Atlantic

Jordan Weissmann compares wages paid to McDonalds workers in Australia and the US, raising four interesting points.

Firstly, McDonalds (or “Maccas” if we use its colloquial name in Australia) is profitable in both low-wage and high-wage countries:

The land down under is, of course, not the only high-wage country in the world where McDonald’s does lucrative business. The company actually earns more revenue out of Europe than it does from the United States. France, with its roughly $12.00 hourly minimum, has more than 1,200 locations. Australia has about 900.

They achieve this partly through higher prices, but also through adjusting their staff structure in Australia.

The country allows lower pay for teenagers, and the labor deal McDonald’s struck with its employees currently pays 16-year-olds roughly US$8-an-hour, not altogether different from what they’d make in the states. In an email, Greg Bamber, a professor at Australia’s Monash University who has studied labor relations in the country’s fast food industry, told me that as a result, McDonald’s relies heavily on young workers in Australia. It’s a specific quirk of the country’s wage system. But it goes to show that even in generally high-pay countries, restaurants try to save on labor where they can.

They also focus on increased productivity.

It stands to reason that in places like Europe and Australia, managers have found ways to get more mileage out of their staff as well. Or if not, they’ve at least managed to replace a few of them with computers. As Michael Schaefer, an analyst with Euromonitor International, told me, fast food franchises in Europe have been some of the earliest adopters of touchscreen kiosks that let customers order without a cashier. As always, the peril of making employees more expensive is that machines become cheaper in comparison.

That is one of the primary dangers of high minimum wages: automation is used to improve employee productivity and shrink the required workforce. Shrinking the national wage bill might seem like good business sense, but if we look at this on a macro scale, reduced incomes lead to reduced consumption and falling sales.

Finally, McDonald’s have attempted to add value to their product range, moving slightly more up-market in order to capture higher prices.

McDonald’s has also helped its bottom line abroad by experimenting with higher margin menu items while trying to court more affluent customers. Way back in 1993, for instance, Australia became home to the first McCafe coffee shops, which sell highly profitable espresso drinks. During the last decade, meanwhile, the company gave its European restaurants a designer make-over and began offering more localized menus meant to draw a higher spending crowd.

If we take McDonald’s as a microcosm of the entire economy, the trade-offs and benefits (or lack thereof) are evident. Funding wage hikes out of increased prices (for the same quality products) is futile. It adds no benefit: the increased wage is eroded by higher prices. Reduced wages for younger workers simply disadvantages older workers, excluding them from certain jobs. Increased productivity — higher sales per employee — on the other hand, can benefit the entire economy.

Improved training or increased automation may increase output, but run the risk of shrinking the jobs pool — unless new jobs created in training or manufacturing are sufficient to offset this. Product innovation, on the other hand, is an immediate win, raising sales while encouraging job growth in new support industries.

How do we encourage product innovation? Higher minimum wages is not the answer. Nor, on its own, is increased investment in research and education. What is needed is a focus on international competitiveness: reducing red tape, ensuring basic goods and services such as electricity, water, shipping and transport are competitively priced, lowering taxes and stabilizing exchange rates. That would encourage the establishment of new industry locally rather than exporting skills and know-how to foreign shores. We need a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship, rather than lip-service from politicians.

Read more at The Magical World Where McDonald's Pays $15 an Hour? It's Australia – Jordan Weissmann – The Atlantic.

Henry Thornton | The recession we did not need to have

Henry Thornton expresses his opinion on the grim state of the Australian economy:

The Reserve Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates today. The economy is facing such a grim future that one can support such an outcome. But no-one, not even the Reserve Bank, is facing the main problem facing Australia, which is double-digit cost disequilibrium – a severe lack of international competitiveness.

Just like Treasury’s failure to be ahead of the curve in forecasting, the Reserve Bank’s apparent failure to understand our most important economic problem is bad news for all Australians….

Read more at Henry Thornton – The recession we did not need to have.

Hat tip to Houses & Holes at Macrobusiness.com.au.

Forex: Euro tests resistance, Aussie breaks support

The Euro broke medium-term resistance at $1.32 and is testing the next level at $1.34. Breakout would indicate a primary advance, while respect of resistance (indicated by reversal below $1.32) would warn of another test of primary support at $1.27. Close oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Momentum around the zero line reflects hesitancy.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

Sterling is testing primary support at €1.135 against the euro. Long tails indicate buying pressure and recovery above €1.165 would suggest that a bottom is forming. Breakout above €1.19 would complete a double bottom with a target of €1.24.  Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.19 + ( 1.19 – 1.14 ) = 1.24

Against the greenback, Sterling is testing medium-term resistance at $1.54. Last week’s long tail suggests buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of $1.575. Respect is less likely, but would indicate another test of primary support at $1.485. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the bull signal.

Sterling/Euro

The greenback is oscillating around resistance at ¥100 against the Yen. Follow-through above ¥101.50 would suggest a new advance, while breakout above ¥104 would confirm, offering a target of ¥114*. Reversal below ¥98 remains as likely, however, and would warn of a test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie continues its primary down-trend against the greenback. Breach of medium-term support at $0.96 would test the primary level at $0.94/$0.945. Failure of primary support would offer a long-term target of $0.84*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.04 – 0.94 ) = 0.84

Against the Aussie Dollar, the Loonie remains in a strong up-trend .

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar also continues its primary down-trend against the greenback. Breach of medium-term support at $0.90 suggests a decline to $0.87*, but the long-term target is $0.80*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculations: 0.90 – ( 0.93 – 0.90 ) = 0.87; 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80