Saving Medicare: The Case for Market-Based Health Reform

In a paper to Catholic Health Conference Australia, Jeremy Sammut highlights the need for revision of Australia’s national health care system.

….health spending already consumes a third of the NSW budget….. and if health spending continues to grow at current rates, health will consume the entire NSW budget in 20 years time.

Providing free services encourages over-use and, with limited budgets, restricts access to essential services for the most needy. Sammut suggests a shift to self-funding for minor expenditure, with state assistance for chronic or catastrophic needs.

As the increasingly unaffordable United States private health system demonstrates, it is impossible to insure people for all health services without over-use causing a cost and premium spiral. In a private system, moral hazard creates un-affordability; in a free public insurance system like Medicare it causes arbitrary and unethical rationing.

Public and private health systems are both plagued by the problem of ‘first dollar insurance’ – the expectation among consumers that private or public insurance should entitle them to receive treatment entirely paid for by a third-party payer no matter how small the cost or condition.

By contrast, a soundly constructed insurance system should not insure people for all services. Instead, individuals should be required to self insure for minor health needs and expenses. Third party insurance should be reserved to enable people to share exceptional risk involving major health problems, and thus should only cover a minimum package of high-cost treatments for complex chronic and catastrophic conditions. And personal responsibility, consumer sovereignty, and price signals should also feature by using front-end deductibles and copayments to control costs and deter unnecessary use of marginal and discretionary services and trivial claims.

What we also need is for public and private hospitals to compete on an equal footing for the taxpayer’s health care dollar. This system has been successfully implemented in the Lombardy region of Italy, with excellent results. Margherita Stancati at WSJ online reports:

Lombardy, by contrast, has increased its quality standards, set its own reimbursement rates and, most important, put public and private hospitals on an equal footing by making each equally eligible for public funds. If a hospital meets the quality standards and charges the accepted reimbursement rate, it qualifies. Patients are free to choose between state-run and publicly funded private hospitals at no extra cost. Their co-pay is the same in either case. As a result, public and many private hospitals in Lombardy compete directly for patients and funds.

…..Around 30% of hospital care in Lombardy is private now — more than anywhere else in Italy. And service in both the private and public sector has improved.

Read Jeremy Sammut’s presentation at Saving Medicare: The Case for Market-Based Health Reform | Jeremy Sammut.

APRA: Australian banking system ‘more sound’

Interesting choice of words:

[Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman John Laker] said the Australian banking system was more sound than it was five or six years ago.

“We know that because we managed to negotiate the financial crisis without the fallout for our financial systems,” he said.

“The banking sector is holding more capital, it’s holding higher quality capital, it is holding more liquid assets.”

What he did not say is that Australian banks are financially sound and holding enough capital — and we are unlikely to hear that before banks double their current “improved” capital and leverage ratios.

Read more at Housing bubble worries 'alarmist': RBA | Business Spectator.

Forex: Euro, Sterling and Aussie Dollar strengthen

The Euro found support at $1.31, the short retracement suggesting a breakout above resistance at $1.34/$1.3450. Breakout would offer a target of $1.40*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a healthy primary up-trend.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

Sterling is doing even better, breaking through resistance at €1.19 after piercing the descending trendline. Breakout completes a double bottom reversal with a target of €1.24*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero also suggests a primary up-trend. Reversal below €1.16 would warn of a bull trap, but is most unlikely.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.19 + ( 1.19 – 1.14 ) = 1.24

The greenback is stabilizing against the Yen after losing momentum over the last 3 months. The recent rally respected resistance at ¥100/101 and another test of ¥96 is likely. Breakout above ¥101 would offer a target of ¥106*, but failure of support at ¥96 remains as likely, and would warn of a primary down-trend.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 101 + ( 101 – 96 ) = 106

Canada’s Loonie is headed for a test of the descending trendline and resistance at $0.9750. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum favors a breakout, while recovery above zero would suggest a primary up-trend. Breakout would also complete a double-bottom reversal, with a target of parity*. Reversal below $0.96 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at $0.9450.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 97.5 + ( 97.5 – 94.5 ) = 100.5

The Aussie Dollar also completed a double-bottom reversal against the greenback — this time on a daily chart — offering a target of $0.95*. Follow-through above $0.93 confirms the signal. Reversal below $0.92 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at $0.89.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculations: 0.92 + ( 0.92 – 0.89 ) = 0.95

The Aussie continues to weaken against its Kiwi neighbour. Respect of primary support at $1.12 and recovery above the descending trendline, however, would warn that a bottom is forming. Breakout above $1.16 would confirm, offering a target of $1.20*.

Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculations: 1.16 + ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.20

Asian markets and ASX cautious

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke its descending trendline, indicating the correction is over. Breakout above 15000 would signal a primary advance to 18000*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above 30% would support this.  Reversal below 13000 is now unlikely.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite breached its descending trendline at 2200, indicating the down-trend is over. A long wick (or shadow) on last week’s candle, however, suggests resistance — and reversal below 2150 and the rising trendline would warn of a bull trap. But rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal medium-term buying pressure. Follow-through above 2350 is likely, and would indicate a test of 2450.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex also displays a long wick on last week’s candle. Expect strong resistance at 20500. Respect would indicate another test of primary support at 18000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure, but long-term direction is unclear.

BSE Sensex Index

The ASX 200 is cautiously testing long-term resistance at 5250. Europe is bullish and Asian markets are rising, but the Dow and S&P 500 remain mildly bearish. Respect of resistance at 5250, indicated by reversal below 5150 and the rising trendline, would present another bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicating long-term selling pressure. Breakout above 5250, however, would signal another primary advance, with a long-term target of 5750*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4750 ) = 5750

Imbalances in the Australian housing market | Chris Joye

Chris Joye from the Financial Review warns on Radio National that imbalances that may be developing in the Australian housing market:

Hat tip to Leith van Onselen at Macrobusiness.com.au who comments:

“My only observation is that governments of all persuasions have for too long abrogated their responsibilities for housing policy to the RBA – allowing affordability concerns to be addressed via continuous lowering of interest rates, rather than addressing the underlying causes of poor affordability through supply-side and taxation reform.”

US & China lift ASX

The S&P 500 rallied strongly this week despite a weak bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warning of selling pressure. Recovery above 1700 would indicate another advance, while a new August high on Twiggs Money Flow would further strengthen the signal, offering a target of 1850*. Reversal below 1630 is unlikely, but would re-test primary support at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1700 + ( 1700 – 1550 ) = 1850

Dow Jones Industrial Average displayed a stronger bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, increasing the likelihood of reversal below 14800. But positive sentiment is growing and recovery above 15650 now seems as likely.
S&P 500 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite penetrated resistance at 2200 and the descending trendline, suggesting that the down-trend is ending. Reversal below the rising trendline would warn of another correction to test primary support at 1950, but breach of support is now less likely. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure; a trough above zero would strengthen the signal.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5250, buoyed by positive sentiment in China and the US. Breakout would suggest a primary advance, but a lower peak on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would continue to warn of selling pressure. Reversal below 5150 remains as likely, and would test medium-term support at 4900/5000.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4750 ) = 5750

Why this is a bad time to win an election | Business Spectator

Prof. Steve Keen writes:

So what could the future hold for Prime Minister Abbott? Here I have a hunch that he’ll end up suffering a similar fate, not to the previous Liberal leader he admires – John Howard – but to ….. Malcolm Fraser.

Fraser, as noted, had the good fortune to take over from Whitlam after the bursting of the debt bubble was largely over, but the bad fortune that the revival in Australia’s bubble was considerably more anaemic than America’s. Abbott could well find himself experiencing a similar double-edged sword of fate. He will take over when the deleveraging that caused the GFC has come to a temporary halt, and demand will be rising in the US….. But this rise could peter out even more quickly than it did for Fraser, leading to anaemic economic performance that will be blamed on the politician rather than the times.

Read more at Why this is a bad time to win an election | Business Spectator.

Asian markets lift the ASX 200

Dow Jones Japan Index jumped today on Tokyo’s success in its bid for the 2020 Olympics. Follow-through above the descending trendline indicates the correction is over and a test of 81.50 likely. Upward breakout would signal continuation of the primary up-trend. Reversal below 73.50 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 69.00.

Dow Jones Japan Index

China’s Shanghai Composite breached resistance at 2100, indicating a test of the descending trendline at 2200. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. The primary trend remains down, however, and reversal below the rising trendline would warn of another test of primary support at 1950. In the longer-term, breakout above the descending trendline is unlikely, but would suggest that the down-trend has ended.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex rallied sharply after finding support at 18000/18500. Follow-through above 19500 would confirm another test of resistance at 20500.  Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 18500 is unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend.

BSE Sensex Index

Rising Asian markets, especially China, are lifting the ASX 200, but weakness on the Dow or S&P 500 could reverse this. Recovery above 5150 and respect of the rising trendline suggest another test of resistance at 5250. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short/medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 5250 would signal another primary advance. Respect of resistance remains as likely, however, and reversal below 5000 would warn of another test of primary support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

Forex: Euro weakens but Aussie, Yen resilient

The Euro followed through below $1.3150, after breaking support at $1.32, confirming a correction to primary support at $1.2750/1.2800. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal.

Euro/USD

Sterling penetrated the descending trendline (weekly chart) against the euro, suggesting the primary down-trend is over. Breakout above €1.19 would complete a double bottom with a target of €1.24*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero also indicates a primary up-trend. Reversal below €1.16 is unlikely, but would warn the down-trend may continue; failure of primary support at €1.14 would confirm.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.19 + ( 1.19 – 1.14 ) = 1.24

The greenback broke out of its triangular pattern (weekly chart) against the Yen, but too close to the apex to have much significance. Follow-through above ¥101.50 would offer a long-term target of ¥114*. Reversal below ¥96 is unlikely, but would test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie is testing primary support at $0.9450 against the greenback. Respect, indicated by recovery above $0.96, would test the descending trendline (weekly chart) and resistance at $0.9750. Failure of support is as likely, however, and would warn of another decline.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar penetrated its descending trendline (daily chart) against the greenback, suggesting the primary down-trend is weakening. Breakout above $0.92 would complete a double-bottom reversal with an initial target of $0.95*. Respect of resistance remains likely, however, and would signal another test of primary support at $0.89*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculations: 0.92 + ( 0.92 – 0.89 ) = 0.95; 0.89 – ( 0.92 – 0.89 ) = 0.86

The Aussie penetrated its descending trendline (weekly chart) against the Kiwi, suggesting that the primary down-trend is over. Breakout above $1.16 would confirm, while reversal below $1.12 would signal another decline.

Canadian Loonie

The BRICs party is over | Anders Aslund | Vox

Anders Åslund:

From 2000 to 2008 the world went through one of the greatest commodity and credit booms of all times. Goldman Sachs preached that the BRICs were unstoppable….

However, Genesis warns that after seven years of plenty, “seven years of famine will come and the famine will ravage the land”. Genesis appears to have described the combined commodity and credit cycle, from which the Brazil, Russia, India and China have benefited more than their due….

Read more at The BRICs party is over | vox.