Australia & NZ Archives - Page 19 of 100

October 5, 2018

ASX 200: Miners rally but banks a worry

The ASX 200 found support at 6120/6150, with a long tail indicating buying interest. Follow-through above 6250 would suggest another advance. Breach is now unlikely but would warn of a test of the rising long-term trendline at 6000.

ASX 200

A rally on resources stocks helped support the overall index. Expect the ASX 300 Metals & Mining index to test 4000.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

Miners were helped by a weakening Aussie Dollar. Breach of support at 71 US cents offers a target of 69 cents. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure.

AUDUSD

Banks, on the other hand, are weakening. The ASX 300 Banks index broke support at 7700, with a declining Trend Index warning of selling pressure. Expect a test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

Falling broad money and credit growth warn of a contraction — unless an unlikely Chinese-led mining boom can keep the wolf from the door.

Broad Money and Credit Growth

House prices are falling.

House Prices

Returns on bank equity are declining due to increased capital requirements, lower credit growth and narrow margins.

Banks Return on Equity

I remain cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

September 22, 2018

Aussie gold stocks rally

Gold continues to find resistance at $1210/ounce. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure. Respect of resistance would indicate another decline and a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Currencies

The PBOC is supporting the Yuan at 14.5 US cents.

CNY/USD

Support for the Yuan is driving down the Dollar. Dollar Index breach of support at 95 warns of a correction to test 91. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure. A falling Dollar is likely to boost demand for gold.

Dollar Index

The Australian Dollar benefited from the weaker greenback, rallying to test resistance at 73/73.5 US cents. Trend Index peaks below zero continue to warn of long-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal a test of the 2015/2016 low at 70 US cents.

Australian Dollar/USD

Gold Stocks

Australian gold stocks rallied despite the strengthening Aussie Dollar. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) is likely to encounter stiff resistance between 4900 and 5100. A Trend Index peak below zero would warn of further selling pressure and continuation of the down-trend.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

September 22, 2018

ASX 200: Banks lack support but miners receive a boost

The ASX 200 correction continues to test medium-term support at 6150. Small candles on the weekly chart indicate a lack of enthusiasm from buyers and support is unlikely to hold. Breach would signal a test of the rising long-term trendline at 6000.

ASX 200

The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test support at 7700. Declining Trend Index warns of selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would signal a test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining, however, received a boost from stronger commodity prices and is testing resistance at 3750. A Trend Index peak near zero is less likely but would warn of selling pressure and a primary down-trend.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

I remain cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

September 15, 2018

ASX 200: Correction to test 6000

The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test support at 7700. Declining Trend Index warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would signal a test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is also headed for a test of primary support, at 3400. A Trend Index peak at/below zero would warn of rising selling pressure and a primary down-trend.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

Commodities are already in a primary down-trend but Australian stocks are partially cushioned by a weakening Aussie Dollar.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

The ASX 200 found medium-term support at 6150 but this unlikely to hold. Bearish Divergence on the Trend Index warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect a correction to test the rising long-term trendline at 6000.

ASX 200

I remain cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

September 10, 2018September 10, 2018

Australian households are spending more than they are earning | ABC

Interesting chart from Stephen Letts at the ABC:

Thomson Reuters: Australian Consumption v. Disposable Income

Household consumption is growing at a faster rate than disposable income, with savings rates (net savings / disposable income) falling. This is clearly unsustainable. Savings rates, which include compulsory super contributions, fell to just 1.0% in Q2, with savings outside of super being rapidly eroded.

That relationship is even more unsustainable now house prices are falling, according to Deutsche bank’s Phil Odonaghoe.

“Strengthening housing wealth accrued by the household sector has been an important factor supporting the decline in saving. With house prices now falling, that support has been removed.”

From Households are now spending more than they are earning — and that’s not sustainable | Stephen Letts | ABC.

Hat tip to Macrobusiness.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

September 7, 2018

Gold stocks face selling pressure despite plunging Aussie Dollar

The Yuan continues to test support at 14.5 US cents.

CNY/USD

The Dollar Index recovered above support at 95. Respect of support would confirm another advance, with a long-term target of 103, but bearish divergence on the Trend Index still warns of selling pressure.

Dollar Index

Gold is testing resistance at $1200/ounce but Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure. Respect of the descending trendline would indicate another decline with a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The Australian Dollar is plunging, having broken short-term support at 72 US cents. Trend Index peaks below zero indicate strong selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2015/2016 low at 70 US cents.

Australian Dollar/USD

The falling Aussie Dollar may cushion local gold stocks, to some extent, from weaker gold prices but the All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) continues its downward path. Tall shadows on the last three candles flag selling pressure. Breach of short-term support at 4550 is likely and would offer a long-term target of 4000/4100.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

September 7, 2018

ASX 200: Banks & miners lead correction

The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test support at 7700 after respecting its new resistance level at 8000. Breach of support is likely and would signal another test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index broke short-term support at 3600 and is headed for a test of primary support at 3400. A sharp fall on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 200 is testing medium-term support at 6150. Bearish Divergence on the Trend Index warns of (secondary) selling pressure and breach of 6150 is likely. Expect a correction to test the rising long-term trendline at 6000.

ASX 200

I avoid commercial banks because of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk. Also hold few mining stocks because of exposure to volatile commodity markets. I remain cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

September 1, 2018

Gold reacts to Dollar weakness

The Yuan continues to find support at 14.5 US cents.

CNY/USD

The Dollar Index is testing support at 95. Respect of support would confirm another advance, with a long-term target of 103, but declining Trend index peaks warn of selling pressure.

Dollar Index

Gold rallied to $1200/ounce but failed to make further progress. Respect of the descending trendline would warn of another decline with a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The Australian Dollar respected resistance at 73.50 US cents, warning of another decline. Trend Index peaks below zero reflect selling pressure.

Australian Dollar/USD

The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) continues its downward path, tall shadows on the last two candles reflecting selling pressure. Breach of short-term support at 4550 is likely and would offer a long-term target of 4000/4100.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

September 1, 2018

ASX 200 hesitant

The ASX 300 Banks index found support at 7700 and retraced to test its new resistance level at 8000. Respect is likely and would confirm another test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index made a weak retracement to test 3750, suggesting strong selling pressure. Breach of short-term support at 3600 is likely and would test primary support at 3400.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 200 rallied above the 6300 watershed but selling pressure is evident in the tall shadow. Bearish Divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure. Breach of 6200 is likely and would warn of a correction, testing 6000.

ASX 200

I am wary of banks because of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk and cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 24, 2018August 24, 2018

ASX 200 hurt by banks, miners and politics

After a false break above 8100 the ASX 300 Banks index completed a bull trap with reversal below 7900. Expect a test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

Resources stocks continued their correction, with the ASX 300 Metals & Mining index finding short-term support at 3600. Follow-through is likely and would test primary support at 3400, with fears of a US-China trade war undermining commodity prices.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 200 retreated below its new support level at 6300. Political upheaval may have contributed but penetration of the rising trendline would warn of a correction (already signaled by bearish Divergence on the Trend Index).

ASX 200

I remain wary of banks because of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk and cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.