Author: Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
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Numbers Tell of Failure in the War on Drugs – NYTimes.com

If there is one number that embodies the seemingly intractable challenge imposed by the illegal drug trade on the relationship between the United States and Mexico, it is $177.26. That is the retail price, according to Drug Enforcement Administration data, of one gram of pure cocaine from your typical local pusher. That is 74 percent cheaper than it was 30 years ago.

via Numbers Tell of Failure in the War on Drugs – NYTimes.com.

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Rising dollar but commodities strengthen

The rising dollar suggests weaker gold and commodity prices. The US Dollar Index continues to test resistance at 83.50. Breakout would target the 2010 high at 88.50, with an interim target of 86*, while respect would test support at 81.50. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating above zero indicates a strong up-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold continues to test primary support at $1530 per ounce, while 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breakout would offer a target of $1300*. QE3, however, would start a new up-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

Spot Silver is similarly testing primary support at $26 per ounce. Failure would offer a target of $16*.

Spot Silver

* Target calculation: 26 – ( 36 – 26 ) = 16

Commodities, and not just crude oil, however, have rallied strongly. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a strong down-trend and CRB Commodities Index respect of its descending trendline would warn of a decline to 240*. Penetration above the trendline is unlikely, but would suggest that a bottom is forming.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 270 – ( 300 – 270 ) = 240

Brent Crude has already penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting that a bottom is forming, but 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to indicate a primary down-trend. Recovery of the indicator above zero would strengthen the bull signal, while a peak below zero would signal a primary decline to $75 per barrel*.

Brent Crude and Nymex WTI Light Crude

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

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Compromises Are Needed to Boost Growth – WSJ.com

Gerald Seib: Most sensible people in Washington know exactly what kinds of compromises on the deficit, taxes, trade and entitlement programs are within reach to change the economic trajectory.

What’s needed is simply for both parties to accept that neither is likely to be in full command of the government after the fall election and perhaps for some time to come, and to move on to the compromises needed to end a policy paralysis that is exacting a real economic price….

This imperative is well embodied in a new study, titled “The Bargain,” soon to be released by Third Way, a centrist think tank. It lays out a series of seven big policy bargains the two parties could strike to address economic malaise….

via Compromises Are Needed to Boost Growth – WSJ.com.

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ASX 200 tests ceiling

The ASX 200 index is headed for a test of resistance at 4170 after forming a higher trough. Breakout would indicate a rally to test 4450. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. In the long term, breakout above 4450 would signal a primary up-trend, but that may be some way off. Reversal below 3990 seems just as remote but would signal another primary decline.

ASX 200 Index

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Asia: India bullish while China, Japan bearish

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index formed a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicating strong selling pressure. Failure of primary support at 8200 would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its 2011 low of 2150 after breaking  primary support at 2250. Breach of the new support level would indicate a decline to 1800*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal. Recovery above 2250 is unlikely, but would suggest another rally to 2500.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

India’s Sensex: Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates reversal to a primary up-trend; a trough above the zero line would signal strong buying pressure. Respect of support at 17000 by the latest retracement would indicate a rally to 18500, while breakout above 18500 would confirm the primary up-trend.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18500 + ( 18500 – 16000 ) = 21000

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3030. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact. Breakout above 3030 would signal a primary advance to 3300*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

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UK & Europe momentum rising

Dow Jones Europe Index is headed for a test of the long-term descending trendline at 240. Upward breakout would support the bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, indicating a primary up-trend. Breakout above 265 would confirm. Respect of resistance at 240, however, would warn of another test of primary support at 210.

Dow Jones Europe Index

The FTSE 100 penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting that a bottom is forming. Retracement that respects support at 5250 would confirm. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would also favor an up-trend.

FTSE 100 Index

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Canada: TSX 60 tests primary support

Canada’s TSX 60 index is headed for another test of primary support at 640. Failure of support would signal a primary decline to 560*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum is rising but respect of the zero line would warn of a strong down-trend.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 640 – ( 720 – 640 ) = 560

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S&P 500 and Dow Industrials remain bearish

The S&P 500 continues to test resistance at 1370 but declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate a primary down-swing; confirmed if support at 1270 is broken. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal. Breakout above 1420 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to 1570*.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1270 ) = 1570

The Dow Industrial Average is in a similar position, with bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warning of selling pressure. Reversal of TMF below zero would indicate a primary down-trend .

Dow Industrial Average Index

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Labor Shortage May Help China Adjust to Slower Growth – WSJ.com

Reflecting the tight labor market, wage income for urban households rose 13% year-on-year in the first half, and average monthly income for migrant workers rose 14.9%, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics…… At current rates, China’s private-sector manufacturing wages will double from their 2011 levels by 2015, and triple by 2017, eroding competitiveness and denting the exports that have played a key part in China’s early growth.

via Labor Shortage May Help China Adjust to Slower Growth – WSJ.com.

Comment:~ It makes you question official inflation figures of just 2.2 percent when wage increases are significantly higher.

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A lack of money isn't the problem: it's time to shrink – The Drum – ABC News

Alan Kohler: Debt was built up through 30 years of current account imbalances after currencies were finally unshackled from the gold standard in 1971, and the depression of the 70s came to an end in 1982.

Central banks, principally the Federal Reserve, complied in the process of debt build-up by holding down interest rates and allowing asset prices to rise, keeping balance sheets in the black.

The credit crisis of 2007-08 brought asset prices down rapidly and rendered banks suddenly insolvent, so they had to be recapitalised by governments. Now the governments of Europe, the US and Japan are insolvent, and the only question is when the central banks will monetise their debt – that is, print more money and buy their debts…..

via A lack of money isn’t the problem: it’s time to shrink – The Drum – ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation).

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